744
FXUS62 KFFC 270548
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
148 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Key Messages:

 - Hot conditions will continue in Georgia through at least Monday.

 - A Heat Advisory remains in affect for today, and an Extreme Heat
Watch is still out for Monday.

 - Isolated thunderstorms, with the potential for strong downburst
winds, may return to Georgia on Monday.

Heat Concerns Today & Monday:

Heat, driven by a strong ridge over the Southeast, will be the
primary concern through Monday. A Heat Advisory remains in place for
parts of central and eastern Georgia today. Then for Monday an
Extreme Heat Watch is still in effect. Overall forecast confidence
in the level of heat today is high. Surface dewpoints should mix
down into the lower 70s this afternoon and combine with afternoon
highs in the 94 to 99 degree range to produce heat index values of
100 to 109. The Heat Advisory includes the portions of the state
where we anticipated heat indices at or above 105 degrees.
Forecaster confidence in continued heat on Monday remains high,
however confidence in parts of east central Georgia reaching Extreme
Heat criteria (heat index of 110 or more) has fallen to around 50%.
This decrease in confidence is driven by trends in the CAM guidance
that favor good boundary layer mixing, suggesting slightly lower (by
1-3 degrees) surface dewpoints Monday afternoon. Our forecast has
been adjusted from the base NBM guidance on Monday, and now consists
of a 50/50 blend of the NBM and NBM 10th percentile. We will
reevaluate the Extreme Heat Watch later today to determine if it
needs to be transitioned to a Heat Advisory or and Extreme Heat
Warning.

Thunderstorm Chances on Monday:

Mid and upper level subsidence will decrease in Georgia on Monday as
the upper level ridge moves westwards. This will open the door, and
some diurnal convection may decide to step through and visit
Georgia. Eastern and northern Georgia where convective temperatures
in the upper 90s may be reached by mid afternoon should have the
best shot at thunderstorms activity on Monday. Any storms that form
should enjoy an environment favorable for strong downdrafts, with
DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg and a well mixed boundary layer. Thus it
wouldn`t be surprising if we see a couple of stronger thunderstorms
between 3 PM and 9 PM. The region with the greatest potential for
stronger storms should be east and northeast of a line from Atlanta
to Macon.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Key Messages:

- The heat wave and above normal temperatures are likely to persist
through at least Wednesday before temperatures begin to trend down
late in the week.

- Warm overnight temperatures will do little to provide any relief
from the heat between Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances are expected each day
through the week into the weekend. Thunderstorms capable of
producing 40-50 MPH downburst winds is likely on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

The mid-level ridge residing over much of the Southeast will be
retrograding back westward at the start of the long term period in
response to troughing across the northeast. With low level moisture
returning to the region coverage of daily rain and thunder chances
is expected to increase. However, heat will continue to be a concern
through at least Wednesday despite increasing rain chances lowering
temperatures ever so slightly. Forecast high temperatures on Tuesday
are set to climb into the mid to upper 90s areawide with heat index
values exceeding 105 at many locations. We will start to see
temperatures and heat index values come down slightly beginning
Wednesday but forecast highs are still expected to remain in the 90s
(excluding northeast GA) and heat index values ranging from 102 to
108. So while not as oppressive, still very hot and humid. There
will continue to be little reprieve from the hot and humid
conditions once the sun goes down. Forecast low temperatures Monday
and Tuesday Nights will only lower into the mid to upper 70s (upper
60s to low 70s in the northeast GA mountains). Thus, additional heat
headlines may again be needed for at least some portions of the
forecast area between Tuesday and Wednesday. Please continue to keep
this in mind if you (or your family or pets) plan to spend any
amount of time outdoors!

In addition to the continued heat, rain and thunder chances return
to the forecast becoming more widespread and numerous mid to late
week. A weak surface low developing to our east/southeast will
contribute to scattered rain and thunderstorm development on Tuesday
into Wednesday. Inverted V model forecast soundings from the GFS and
NAM at KFFC suggest strong thunderstorms will be capable of
producing strong downburst winds of 40 to 50 MPH on both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Rain chances will be on the rise heading into the
following weekend as a frontal boundary slowly moves southward
across the TN Valley. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning
will be possible with any storms that develop. Following the front,
a wedge front looks sets up to the northeast. As a result around
Friday and especially into the weekend there looks to be a notable
and much welcomed downward trend in temperatures. Forecast high
temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s
(70s/80s in northeast GA). And by the weekend temperatures will
lower back down into the 80s (70s in northeast GA) across the
majority of locales.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

VFR conditions (unrestricted visibility and ceilings AOA 4000 ft
AGL) will prevail in north and central Georgia through 18Z Monday.
Winds will be from the west or northwest (260-330 degrees) during
this period, with peak speeds of 6 to 12 kt between 14Z today and
00Z Monday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High forecast confidence in all elements of the KATL TAF.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  98  77 100 /   0   0   0  20
Atlanta         76  96  78  97 /   0   0   0  20
Blairsville     68  89  70  91 /  10  20  10  50
Cartersville    73  96  75  97 /   0  10  10  20
Columbus        75  97  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     75  95  77  97 /   0  10   0  20
Macon           75  99  78 100 /   0   0   0  20
Rome            72  95  74  95 /   0  10  10  30
Peachtree City  73  96  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
Vidalia         77  99  79 101 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
GAZ024-025-027-035>039-046>051-056>062-068>076-079>086-091>098-
103>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Albright