169
FXUS62 KFFC 020555
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
155 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers are expected tonight into Saturday. Isolated
  thunderstorms will be possible in south-central Georgia.

- Sunday and Monday lows could pose a frost threat in the
  mountains of north Georgia and may require a frost advisory.
  Climate sites may see near record lows.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return mid next week, though
  exact location, timing and intensity remains uncertain.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Much of the Southeast remains underneath nearly zonal flow aloft as
the period begins. At the surface, the front that passed through
Georgia yesterday has stalled across the northern Gulf and Florida
Panhandle. This boundary will stay mostly stationary through the
remainder of the day into Saturday. A weak disturbance traversing
the zonal flow is promoting the development of isolated to scattered
light showers as it overruns the stationary front. With a cooler
airmass having settled in behind the front and broken to overcast
skies across the area, high temperatures this afternoon will be
limited to the high 60s to low 70s. Within the cooler air, there
will be little to no instability today, which will inhibit the
chances of thunderstorms across the majority of the forecast area.
The only exception is in south-central Georgia, where a combination
of marginal instability aloft and weak lift in the vicinity of the
front could lead to the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms.

A closed upper level low is centered to the north of the Great Lakes
region. A longwave trough is currently extending from this low
through the Great Plains and towards north Texas. This trough will
deepen and rotate counter-clockwise around the low this afternoon
and evening, swinging closer towards the Southeast. As this occurs,
the mid and upper level flow will begin to shift to southwesterly
and a surface low will begin to develop within the frontal boundary
draped across the Gulf Coast. As the trough axis draws closer, it
will lift the developing low northeast through south/central
Georgia. Rain chances will increase accordingly, with showers
becoming widespread late tonight and through Saturday morning in
areas along and south of the Atlanta metro (and more scattered to
the north). Rainfall rates will also increase with increasing
moisture, particularly in central Georgia. Isolated elevated
thunderstorms will remain possible in the southern tier on Saturday
but are unlikely to the north of Columbus/Macon.

By late Saturday morning, the trough axis will approach far
northwest Georgia while the surface low moves towards the
Georgia/South Carolina coast. Rain chances will progressively taper
off from northwest to southeast over the course of the afternoon. As
the low continues northeast, it will stretch and advance the front
south and east away from the forecast area, with precipitation
summarily coming to an end across the area by sunset. Additional
rainfall totals through Saturday will range from 0.75-1.5" to the
south of I-20, with locally higher amounts possible in south-central
Georgia. Rainfall amounts to the north of I-20 will be less than
0.75", with progressively lower amounts further to the north. Low
temperatures tonight into Friday will range from the upper 40s to
low 50s and high temperatures on Saturday will only be in the 60s.

The trough axis will continue to swing through Georgia on Saturday
night while high pressure advances into the region from the west,
which will contribute to drier, cooler air setting up into the
extended period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

The long term outlook has been adjusted to discuss the forecast post
weekend rainfall and will pick up Sunday morning. Clustering
analysis on the exit of the upper and mid level trough remains in
high agreement with little variation from the mean ensemble pattern.
Thus the main points of note for Sunday and Monday will be driven by
surface features and airmass changes.

Post frontal air will be well entrenched by Sunday morning, bringing
dewpoints into the low 40s to mid 30s across the area. Skies
clearing into Sunday morning will mean radiational cooling will
dominate and temperatures will likely fall quickly overnight. Winds
will likely have tapered off by this point so lows Sunday morning
could be in the mid to low 40s for much of the area, putting record
lows within reach (especially for the southern sites). Another area
to watch closely will be the north Georgia mountains/valleys. Light
winds in the valleys and radiational cooling could see temperatures
briefly fall into the mid 30s. Frost may pose a threat to vegetation
and crops which are already struggling from drought conditions.
Dewpoints will be the make or break for this. 90th percentile NBM
dewpoints (which seems unrepresentative to this forecaster) would
limit cooling to the upper 30s. 10th percentile NBM dewpoints are in
the low 30s, and would not pose a barrier to frost conditions. A
similar threat may exist Monday, however dewpoints will begin to
recover as mid level ridging develops leading into the start of the
work week.

Temperatures rebound Monday and Tuesday as the broad mid level sub-
tropical ridge develops overhead. This will set up the next rain
chances mid week. Timing and intensity of the precipitation through
the middle of the work week remains difficult as clustering analysis
shows significant speed differences in the ejection of the next
trough. A faster trough ejection appears directly related to trough
amplitude as it either breaks over the subtropical ridge (faster
solution) or moves in behind it (slower solution;higher amplitude).
A higher amplitude ridge will mean more cyclogenesis along the gulf,
greater warm sector development, and greater thunderstorm
chances/potential. Will continue to keep an eye on thunderstorm
potential Wednesday and Thursday next week, but prepared for at
least some rain in days 5 to 7. In the meantime, may see flip-flops
in thunderstorm vs showers within the gridded forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026
Showers moving across the area this morning. Showers mainly across
CSG/MCN as frontal boundary laying across south GA. Could see
some light showers through daybreak across the ATL/AHN areas then
precip and ceilings clear out through the afternoon hours.
Ceilings VFR across the area but could see some MVFR ceilings
between 09z-15z associated with the better precip chances. Winds
expected to stay out of the NW in the 5-10kt range through the
period. VSBYs will be mainly in the VFR range but could see some
MVFR VSBYs in the same 09z-15z timeframe.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          44  71  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         47  70  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     37  66  40  74 /   0   0   0  10
Cartersville    42  71  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        45  72  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     45  70  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           43  73  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            43  72  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  43  71  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         47  74  50  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...01