769
FXUS62 KFFC 192343
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
743 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Key Message:

 - Afternoon precip chances begin to increase from north to south
   Today and continue into the extended period.


The mid to upper level ridge has weakened a bit but it is still over
the area and helping to keep Hurricane Erin off the eastern
seaboard. The main feature for North and central GA is the surface
ridge/wedge that pushed into NE GA last night and has brought with
it some cloudy skies and some slightly cooler temps. This wedge is
nowhere near as strong as the one we saw a few weeks ago that kept
the area overcast and temps in the 70s for a week. We will see
mainly easterly flow with increased moisture with this wedge which
is helping to increase afternoon convective coverage Today across
North GA. With the orographic affects of the moist easterly flow we
are seeing some fairly good storms brewing across NE GA. These
storms have the potential to drop quite a bit of rain with PWATs in
the 1.75" to 2". Will need to keep a close eye on how things develop
as this has the potential to cause some flooding. Instability
indices are fairly weak with the wedge dominating the pattern so not
expecting much in the way of severe storms. This wedge is expected
to weaken slowly through Wed afternoon as a frontal boundary moves
south out of KY/TN and pushes into N GA by 00z-06z Thu.

Temps under the wedge are only expected to get up into the lower to
middle 80s Today and Wednesday. Locations outside of the wedge will
see more seasonal temps with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Low
temps Tonight and Wed night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
across the CWA.

As for Hurricane  Erin, it is currently positioned about 500 miles
east of West Palm Beach, FL and is expected to continue to move NW
tonight before turning to the NE Wed afternoon. As far as impacts
go, GA is only expecting to see some high surf and possible rip
currents along the GA coast.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Key Messages:

 - Multiple frontal passages during the second half of the
   workweek will increase rain chances and bring cooler
   temperatures for the weekend.

 - The first significant northwest flow event of the "fall"
   season will bring a significant reduction in humidity early
   next week.

Thursday & Friday:

On Thursday the weather in Georgia will be driven by a lingering
frontal boundary and the peripheral impacts from Hurricane Erin off
the coast of North Carolina. The regions displaced potion from Erin
should favor weak mid/upper level subsidence and this may inhibit
diurnal convection to a degree. Meanwhile our surface pressure
gradients look really weak in the GEFS and EPS guidance. Hinting at
light winds and making it difficult to pin down the potential
mechanisms for surface forcing that could enhance convective
potential in the afternoon. There does appear to be some potential
for northeast winds in the eastern half of the state and northwest
winds in the western half. This could favor weak surface convergence
somewhere in the Georgia and locally enhance the convective
potential. Most of the uncertainty stems from the limited confidence
in the intensity of Erin and the resulting intensity of the
northeast flow on Thursday. Severe weather or flooding are not
expected to be widespread concerns at this time.

Temperatures should continue to be slightly above average on
Thursday. Afternoon highs should top out in the low to mid 90s for
most areas. Mountain locations over 2500 ft can expect highs in the
80s.

A lingering frontal boundary and a weak trough stretching from the
Mid-Atlantc to Louisiana should favor better rainfall chances and
cloud cover on Friday. All indications in the guidance suggest that
the peak in rain chances should be diurnally driven (so occurring in
the afternoon), but rainfall could occur at anytime during the day.
Thunderstorms will be possible but the severe weather potential
should be significantly hindered by a lack of shear and poor mid
level lapse rates. Any storms should be slow movers though, and with
PW values near 2 inches an isolated flooding threat could
materialize.

Temperatures will begin to trend downwards on Friday, with most
areas topping out mid to upper 80s. This should place us slightly
below seasonal averages and set the stages for more seasonally mild
weather this weekend.

The Weekend and Early Next Week:

A strong upper level trough will move into the Great Lakes and
Eastern Canada over the weekend. As this trough takes hold of the
over the Eastern U.S. it will push a cold front through Georgia.
This front should serve as a focal point for shower and thunderstorm
development over the weekend. A deep pool of tropical moisture (PW
values near 2 inches) ahead of the front should allow afternoon and
evening storm chances to peak in north and central Georgia on
Saturday. Additional storm chances will occur Sunday with the fronts
passage. Falling PW values (possibly to less than an inch) and
prevailing northwest flow should lead to a 2-3 day period of most
dry weather between Monday and Wednesday. This period of dry weather
should also be accompanied by surface dewpoints in the 50s and 60s
early next week, leading to significant "fall like" reductions in
humidity.

Clouds, rainfall and multiple frontal passages will favor below
average temperatures this weekend. The departures from average
should only be in the 2 to 8 degree range, but this should still
lead to widespread afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. The trend
of below average temperatures may linger early next week, while
lower humidity may increase our diurnal temperature range.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Storms have come to an end for much of the TAF sites for the
night. With the prolonged thunderstorms this evening over the
metro TAF sites, expecting MVFR with patchy IFR ~08z-12z tomorrow
morning. Expecting MVFR to last into the late morning before skies
lift to a scattered cu deck. Expecting TSRA to affect the area
again tomorrow evening from 20-24z and potentially to 01-02z.
Winds should remain out of the east before becoming more
variable/NNW tomorrow evening but overall remain light.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on winds.
Medium confidence on TSRA timing tomorrow evening.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  90  71  91 /  10  20  20  40
Atlanta         73  91  73  92 /  20  30  20  40
Blairsville     67  86  66  85 /  10  60  30  60
Cartersville    72  92  70  91 /  10  40  20  40
Columbus        74  93  73  94 /  20  40  20  40
Gainesville     71  90  71  89 /  10  30  20  40
Macon           73  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  30
Rome            72  92  70  91 /  10  40  20  40
Peachtree City  72  91  71  92 /  20  30  20  30
Vidalia         73  92  73  95 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Hernandez