828
FXUS62 KFFC 070532
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
132 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Key messages:

-Dry and seasonable day though this afternoon.
-Showers return early Wednesday morning. Potential for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

For the remainder of today, looking at one last day with the dry air
flowing from the northwest around the low pressure system to our
north. Temps topping out in the mid to upper 70s today will be
seasonable with light winds and partly cloudy skies. Overall a nice
day!

Early Wednesday morning, we will begin to see the effects of the low
pressure system to our west (part of the original Omega block) push
eastward as the block breaks down. Showers should begin filtering
into west Georgia as early as 2-3am and then continue into the mid
morning hours. CAMs have been trending drier after mid morning and
thus have lowered precip chances for mid morning into the early
afternoon. Although CAMs have backed off on precip in the afternoon,
there still does remain a chance for showers to redevelop into the
afternoon and evening. The main inhibitor for these showers will be
the overcast low clouds and how long they stick around. Should they
continue to stick around into the late morning/early afternoon and
sunshine isn`t able to peak through as much then overall we
shouldn`t see too many showers. Should the low clouds dissipate
earlier than expected though, chances will increase to see showers.
Current thinking is the former situation will happen but still kept
in 40% PoPs for the other scenario.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Key Messages

    - Unsettled conditions are expected at least into the weekend.

    - Increasing likelihood that unsettled conditions persist
      through the weekend into early next week, with the main hazard
      the potential for significant rainfall.

    - Isolated thunderstorms will be possible each day, particularly
      in the afternoons, but widespread severe thunderstorms are not
      anticipated.

Wet, unsettled conditions are expected through the end of the week.
A trough will develop and deepen to the east and south of the area,
with two centers of low pressure - one over the Gulf and the other
over the US Mid-Atlantic - on Friday through Sunday. Enhanced
moisture is forecast across Georgia.

Forecast confidence is high, with good model consensus, through
Friday. From Saturday onward, however, confidence decreases. Both
the GFS and ECMWF have trended wetter with recent model runs than
prior, though the GFS moreso than the ECMWF. Both models suggest
that conditions through at least Sunday will be more wet than
seasonally typical. Precipitable water values over Atlanta are
forecast by both models to be around 1.0 to 1.5 inches, above the
median for early to mid-May. This provides some confidence in the
general trend of wet, unsettled conditions. That being said, this is
a significant change from model solutions from yesterday,
particularly for the GFS. Because of this, confidence in the
forecast beyond Saturday morning is moderate, at best.

Modestly increased instability is anticipated on Friday. As such,
the highest risk for enhanced convective activity is on Friday. That
being said, there is not sufficient instability or forcing, even
with a frontal boundary over Florida/south Georgia and then off the
coast of the Carolinas, for widespread severe thunderstorm activity
to be likely.

CRS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

-SHRA is expected after 8Z which will bring both VIS and CIG
categories down to MVFR. As rain intensifies after 11Z a few obs of
IFR CIGS are possible. Confidence that we`ll see any TSRA this
afternoon remains on the low side, as it may be mostly a rain event
but kept a PROB30 in there to account for the possibility.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium to low on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  69  59  81 /  20  70  40  50
Atlanta         60  72  62  80 /  60  80  50  60
Blairsville     50  64  54  77 /  20  70  50  60
Cartersville    57  70  59  80 /  60  70  50  60
Columbus        60  79  63  81 /  70  70  30  70
Gainesville     57  66  59  79 /  30  70  40  50
Macon           60  77  61  83 /  30  70  30  70
Rome            56  70  59  79 /  60  70  50  60
Peachtree City  58  74  60  80 /  70  80  40  70
Vidalia         64  79  64  85 /  10  60  30  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....CRS
AVIATION...Vaughn