224
FXUS64 KEWX 112340
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
640 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 636 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Hot and dry summer weather continues this week. Practice heat
  safety and stay cool and hydrated.

- Afternoon temperatures each day stay around 100F throughout the
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Two subtropical ridges, one centered over New Mexico and the other
over the eastern Gulf, are beginning to slowly pivot around each
other with the pivot point roughly over Texas. The western ridge is
bringing a warmer continental airmass aloft over the area while the
eastern ridge is helping to steer a drier subtropical airstream at
lower levels. These two factors support continued hot and dry summer
weather this week. A spotty seabreeze shower or two is still in the
cards for this afternoon over the Coastal Plains, but seabreeze
shower activity looks more muted Wednesday and Thursday as drier air
cycles across the area.

Wednesday is forecast to bring a small step up in temperatures as
the aforementioned continental air moves into the area. Highs
ranging from 99 to 102 are expected to be widespread, aside from the
slightly cooler higher elevations in the Hill Country. While daytime
mixing should bring dew points down to seasonable levels, the air is
expected to remain humid enough to push heat indices into the 104-
108F range during the afternoon over the Coastal Plains and I-35
corridor. These forecast values are just below the threshold for
Heat Advisory issuance, but regardless of specific criteria, it
will nonetheless be hot and humid enough to cause issues if
adequate heat safety is not followed. Winds could offer a slight
respite from the heat as a breezy 10-15 mph southeast wind is
expected across the area Wednesday afternoon thanks to the
pressure differential provided by the passing blob of warmer air.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The streak of hot days is expected to continue through the weekend
and into next week. Thursday may be the hottest day of the week by a
slim margin with LREF mean 700mb temperatures aloft reaching 14C, or
around the 98th percentile for much of the area. Daytime winds
should remain on the breezier side through Friday. A temporary
increase in moisture from the Gulf is anticipated Friday, but stable
conditions due to the overarching presence of ridging keeps rain
chances low, providing little aside from than prolonging high heat
indices. We`ll continue to monitor for the need to issue a Heat
Advisory if one of these days becomes notably hotter than our recent
streak of conditions, but reliable access to cooling and hydration
will be needed regardless of whether those levels are met.

The mid level Gulf ridge slides into the lower Mississippi Valley
over the weekend, but will then expand west into the Southern
Plains early next week. This progression is well represented in
ensembles and is a sign that hot summer conditions will continue
with only minor fluctuations in air temperature and heat indices
each day. Highs should stay in the upper 90s to low 100s while
overnight lows should continue to stay in the mid to upper 70s for
most. The northward jaunt of the ridge over the weekend could
temporarily spruce up southeasterly flow just enough to allow a
few isolated seabreeze showers to get going again over the Coastal
Plains, but otherwise rain chances remain minimal through mid-
August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Afternoon cumulus clouds are dissipating and all terminals are
VFR. Only some scattered high clouds through the evening. Winds
from the south to southeast will continue to be 10-15 kts with
gusts up to 25 kts through the evening. MVFR ceilings will develop
in the Austin and San Antonio areas overnight and last until late
morning Wednesday. Gusty winds again Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 101  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  99  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 102  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  99  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75 100  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       78 100  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77 101  77 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...05