761
FXUS64 KEWX 281725
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures expected this weekend
and next week.

- Low to medium chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the coastal plains and I-35 corridor on Sunday.

- Light concentrations of Saharan dust arrive late tonight and
increase early to mid next week, bringing hazy conditions to the
Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Hill Country.

-Low chances for showers and storms persist next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The latest GOES-19 Regional Water Vapor imagery shows weak mid-level
ridging still in place over South Central Texas this morning. This
will result in a hot and dry day for the region for the first half
of the weekend. Temperatures will climb once again into the mid to
upper 90s this afternoon. Factoring in afternoon dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s and lower 70s, it`ll feel just a few degrees warmer
for most, with heat indices in the 98-105 range.

On Sunday, mid-level ridging weakens slightly and gets pushed
eastward. This will open the door for a return to weak southeasterly
flow aloft on the backside of the high. Increased mid-level moisture
should result in a better chance at rain and storms in the afternoon
hours. A localized surge in PWAT values is noted on model guidance
Sunday, which should act to increase cloud cover over the Coastal
Plains and keep afternoon highs down in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Our first wave of Saharan Dust will arrive Sunday, but some of the
latest modeling guidance indicates the heaviest concentrations may
remain over east Texas and southwest Louisiana. Nevertheless, expect
hazy skies to still impact most of South Central Texas Sunday and
beyond. With regard to precip chances, the SAL typically limits
instability and suppresses convection somewhat, so confidence in
storm coverage is low at this time for Sunday afternoon. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A slightly more active pattern will unfold in the long term forecast
period. The month of July will get started out with a chance of
showers and storms most days through late next week, but those
chances will remain low each day, about 10-30%, with the better
chances remaining over the Coastal Plains where afternoon heating
and seabreeze convection are most likely each day. Mid-level ridging
will remain just to the north and east allowing weak southeasterly
mid level flow to work into our area. By midweek, a slug of high
PWATs in excess of 2" will work inland in association with a weak
disturbance over the northern Gulf. While this disturbance is
unlikely to move into Texas, some of the moisture associated with it
could get far enough north to enhance/increase our precip chances,
particularly Wednesday-Friday. Expect continued seasonably warm and
and humid conditions, typical of early July in our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Outside of any very isolated SHRA/TSRA activity this afternoon, VFR
conditions through the afternoon and evening with a FEW-SCT cu
field. Any SHRA/TSRA activity through sunset will be confined mainly
east of the I-35 and I-37 corridors. BKN stratus is forecast to re-
develop 06Z-09Z near a HDO-SAT-BAZ line then expand farther north
into the Hill Country as well as I-35 corridor to AUS between 09Z-
12Z. This stratus will produce mainly MVFR ceilings and scatter out
after 15Z Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  96  75  96 /  10  10   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  95  75  95 /  10  10   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  93  73  93 /   0  20   0  20
Burnet Muni Airport            73  95  73  94 /   0  10   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 100  78  96 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  96  75  96 /   0  10   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             73  93  73  92 /   0  10  10  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  93  73  94 /  10  20   0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  92  74  93 /   0  30   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  92  75  93 /   0  20  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           75  93  75  94 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...76