532
FXUS64 KEWX 061139
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
639 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat of Flash Flooding from slow moving and repeat heavy rains
continues through this morning. The Flood Watch for the Hill Country
and I-35 corridor through 1 PM CDT today.

- Rain chances continue on Monday and Tuesday.

- Eventually trending seasonably drier and warmer this coming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A mid level MCV and unseasonably moist airmass with PWs of 1.7 to
2.4 inches remain in place over our area. This feature and moist
airmass lingers over our area today. Forcing by this feature along
with heating will generate showers and thunderstorms with multiple
models favoring going into this morning. Storm motion vectors favor
slow moving and repeat activity to enhance the efficient warm rain
processes. Locally heavy rains with amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
expected with isolated amounts up to 10 inches possible. These
amounts will aggravate ongoing flooding and likely create new
flooding as soils are very saturated making runoff more rapid. The
heaviest rains are favored over the Hill Country to along the I-35
corridor. We previously extended the Flood Watch through 1 PM CDT
for those areas. The MCV weakens some by Monday with only a slight
decrease in moisture/PWs. Showers and thunderstorms may be less
focused and have only slight chances on Monday. A few hi-res models
show another round of heavy rains late tonight into Monday morning
indicating a potential for another Flood Watch. The clouds and rain
areas keep daytime temperatures below to well below July averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The mid level feature gets replaced by an inverted trough moving
onshore the Texas coast on Tuesday keeping moisture levels elevated.
The blended guidance has caught on to the trends of the last several
model runs and indicates low chances of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and will follow suit. Models/ensembles now show
the Subtropical Ridge not fully building over our area with some
keeping a weakness in the Ridge overhead. All show a drier airmass
spreading over our area keeping rain chances out of the forecast for
the remainder of the week. However, with moisture levels maintaining
seasonal PWs, cannot rule out shower or two each day mainly near the
Coastal Plains with the seabreeze. Trends are for temperatures to
reach near mid July averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings prevail this morning along the I-35
and through the Hill Country. Ceilings are forecast to become VFR
again 16Z-18Z. A mid level disturbance will remain near the region
through Sunday. Isolated showers are ongoing near this feature and
may become more scattered this afternoon west of the I-35 corridor.
A few embedded TSRA are expected as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  74  91  74 /  30  10  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  74  91  74 /  30  10  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     90  73  91  73 /  30  10  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            86  72  88  72 /  50  10  30   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  76  93  76 /  50  20  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        86  73  88  73 /  30  10  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             86  73  90  73 /  50  30  20   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        89  73  91  72 /  30  10  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  74  91  74 /  20  10  30   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  75  90  74 /  40  20  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           91  75  92  74 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-
Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Gillespie-Guadalupe-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-
Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-Williamson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...76