771
FXUS64 KEWX 112357
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
657 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain free conditions for the next several days with increasing
  warmth and humidity by the end of the workweek

- Elevated heat indices and a return of low end (20-30%) rain and
  storm chances this weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Last night`s stormy weather has moved out as the front has pushed
well to the south and the upper level disturbance is exiting the
region to the east. Moderate to slightly breezy north-northeast
winds remain into early this afternoon but decrease later this
afternoon into this evening as surface high pressure continues to
build across the area. The northerly flow will keep drier air and
lower humidity in place into Tuesday. Highs this afternoon and
tonight`s lows trend a few degrees below the seasonal average for
this time of year. Tuesday will see lighter winds, that begin to
turn more easterly, with highs near average. Tuesday night into
Wednesday will then see the return of a light south-southeasterly
flow as the surface high slides to the east into the Southeastern
CONUS. Expect for skies to remain partly cloudy to mostly sunny
through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Mid-level ridging will hold through midweek but expect for warmth
and humidity (with rising dew points) to increase as the south-
southeast lower level flow strengthens. While rain chances will
remain out of the forecast, the higher low-level moisture should
result in greater cloud cover, especially late at night into each
morning. The ridging then starts to flatten out by the end of the
week into the weekend. This will allow for a southwesterly flow
establish aloft and the opportunity for subtle shortwaves to
approach from the west. This will result in the return of low end
(20-30%) rain/storm chances by the latter half of the weekend.
Chances could increase during early next week with the potential
signal for a little more of a pronounced upper level trough
approaching from the west. As common for this time of year, we`ll
have to analyze the capping inversion and any other mesoscale
features as we approach this time frame.

In addition, a continued persistent moderate to breezy south-
southeasterly flow will result in a very humid airmass with dew
points potentially climbing as high as the mid to upper 70s late
this weekend into early next week. This combined with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 90s for many would allow for peak heat
indices to become elevated near or in excess of the 100F degree
range. Overnight lows would also run above average around mid to
upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

While there are plenty of cumulus in the 3500-5000 FT AGL in the
area, falling temperatures and the settling in of high pressure
will keep the skies VFR tonight with the clouds expected to
dissipate by dark. Winds should be decoupled at daybreak, so some
light fog could develop, especially around AUS where higher
rainfall amounts occurred last night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  85  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  62  84  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     62  85  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            60  83  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  88  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        61  83  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             61  86  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  85  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   64  84  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       63  86  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  87  66  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...18