Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
655 FXUS64 KEWX 221134 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 534 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated/near critical fire weather conditions for the eastern two-thirds of South Central Texas today. - Locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected for much of the work week over the Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, & the western Hill Country. - Colder today with a light freeze forecast over protected valleys north of Highway 90; above normal temperatures return Tuesday into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Only a light decoupling of winds is expected toward daybreak before they perk back up and become gusty by 9 AM. West of Highway 281, fewer gusts are expected but the winds should still get up to 15 mph during the midday hours. Sunday night the winds should ease up as the surface ridge axis allows for a weak pressure gradient over TX while the highest surface pressures stay well to the NE. The winds may not go calm around AUS but should drop to around 5 mph, and enough to promote a light freeze Tuesday morning. Most of the metro areas should remain above freezing, but calm winds over the Hill Country could lead to areas of temperatures as low as the upper 20s. Surface high pressure continues to spill south over east TX Monday, but west of Highway 281, some return flow begins to start the warming trend. Because of the cold morning lows and mostly light winds, the sunny skies for Monday will only lead to highs reaching near but just below normals for late February. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Tuesday`s lows start off below normal, but a more robust warm-up gets the highs back to above normal in the afternoon. A tighter pressure gradient establishes over the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday bringing back breezy southerly winds and a return of higher humidities and perhaps some pockets of low stratus. The winds keep out of the SSE for all areas, so only a tiny sliver of west Val Verde County will see the RH mix out to less than 25 percent. Deamplification of the upper ridge over TX by Tuesday night could lower the southerly breeze a bit for Wednesday morning, so there could be an opportunity for light fog then. The lowering heights aloft lure a high plains surface low southward into North Central TX leading to a dry-line intrusion into western counties to bring fire weather concerns to areas along and west of I-35. The dry-line should retreat west by a few counties Wednesday night, but then a polar front arrives early Thursday and brings breezy and dry conditions to all areas. This front, while not nearly as strong as the one from Saturday morning, could be strong enough to push fire weather conditions to near critical for most areas. The air behind the front isn`t particularly cold, and above normal highs remain a good bet. The north winds die down after midnight Friday morning, and the mostly decoupled winds should at least bring us back to near normal minimum temperatures for Friday morning. No rain is forecast through next weekend, but at least by Friday afternoon, the southerly winds will return and keep a feed of Gulf moisture to lessen fire weather concerns for a few days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Little to no change from the previous forecast other than to nudge wind gusts down a notch. Expect VFR ceilings through the period and northeasterly winds to remain gusty through early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 63 37 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 63 32 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 63 34 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 60 33 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 41 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 62 32 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 66 35 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 33 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 35 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 36 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 66 37 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...MMM