589
FXUS64 KEWX 051937
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
237 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Key Message:

- Increasingly dry and warmer conditions expected Thursday-Friday.

Mid to upper level ridging continues to build over South Central
Texas with this feature remaining through the short term period
resulting in warmer and drier weather. A few stray showers could be
seen over the coastal plains this afternoon or a decaying
thunderstorm may skim Val Verde County later this evening.
Otherwise, warm temperatures in the 90s are expected for most this
afternoon, though along the Rio Grande highs will peak from around
100 to 105 degrees. Low clouds build over the area again tonight
keeping lows warm for many in the mid to upper 70s. Highs increase
slightly for Friday from today. Heat index values each day may reach
around 100-106 degrees for a majority of the area with slightly
higher values over the Rio Grande Plains. For now we remain below
Heat Advisory criteria, though that may change as we enter the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Key Messages:

- Above normal temperatures during the upcoming weekend.

- Rain chances return early to mid next week as temperatures ease.

Above normal temperatures and humid conditions are anticipated for
the upcoming weekend as the subtropical ridge axis will be firmly in
place. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 90s to near 105,
with temperatures nudging upward a few degrees on Sunday. Southeast
winds will be firmly in place both days and this will keep low-level
moisture intact. The above normal temperatures and increase in
humidity will bring elevated heat index values to all areas for both
days. As of now, a few spots in the coastal plains back into portions
of the Rio Grande plains south of Eagle Pass may briefly approach
Heat Advisory criteria. With temperatures inching upward on Sunday,
heat index values may approach Advisory levels northward into the
I-35 corridor. We will continue to monitor this situation as the
weekend approaches.

The center of the subtropical high shifts back to the west by late
this weekend, allowing northwest flow aloft to develop over the
region. With the center of the subtropical high shifting west, we
will also see the low-level thermal ridge begin to weaken. This
should result in temperatures dropping slightly on Monday, but still
remaining above climatological normals. A few spots in the coastal
plains may briefly approach Heat Advisory criteria. We will keep the
forecast dry for most areas on Monday, but will show a slight chance
for afternoon showers and storms for areas generally along and north
of a Kerrville to San Marcos to La Grange line as some upper
disturbances move across north Texas. We do expect to see an upper
level trough axis move in from the northwest as we head into late
Monday/early Tuesday. A weak cold front likely aided by convective
outflow is expected to move into the region on Tuesday. With
northwest flow aloft and a frontal boundary, rain chances will go up
and temperatures will drop on Tuesday. Northwest flow aloft and a
weak upper trough axis linger into Wednesday, with the trough axis
expected to gradually shift eastward on Thursday. Would normally tamp
down the NBM pops slightly that far out in the forecast, but given
northwest flow aloft usually over performs, will keep decent rain
chances in the forecast for most areas Wednesday. For Thursday, the
higher rain chances begin to shift eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Any patches of MVFR ceilings across South Central Texas should lift
or scatter in the next hour or so with VFR conditions expected
through this evening. MVFR ceilings will redevelop tonight
scattering again late Friday morning. Southeasterly wind will
prevail today, shifting from the south at I-35 sites Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  96  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  95  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  96  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  93  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 100  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  94  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  95  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  95  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  94  76  96 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  77  99 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  97  78 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...27