013
FXUS64 KEWX 050805
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
205 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1244 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Key Messages:

-Warm temperatures with record highs possible Thursday.

-Late night/morning fog expected for most of the region.


Early morning surface observations show south to southeasterly winds
in place across the vast majority of south central Texas with very
mild temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s. The lone exception
is across northern portions of Burnet and Llano counties where some
slightly cooler air behind a weak front has slipped into the region.
Temperatures in the mentioned areas are slightly cooler, with some
upper 50s to lower 60s noted. Low clouds are also rapidly developing
across the region and we also expect to see patchy fog development
over most areas this morning.

A surface low deepening over northeast New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle will lead to a continuation of southerly flow in the lower
levels today. We expect low clouds to persist longer than yesterday
and this will help knock temperatures down compared to yesterday.
Current forecast highs range from the lower 70s to the lower 80s.
Southerly flow remains intact tonight, leading to another mild night
with lows in the 60s along with patchy fog development. Low clouds
will persist through Thursday morning, but are expected to gradually
mix out in the afternoon. This will lead to highs trending back
upward into the upper 70s to upper 80s. We could even see close to
90s degrees along the Rio Grande south of Eagle Pass. At this time,
we expect highs very close to record territory at Austin and San
Antonio on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1244 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Key Messages...

- Near record highs for Friday and Saturday

- Cold front brings a cooldown and a return to more seasonable
  temperatures come Monday

The start of the forecast period sees prolonged southerly flow
continuing for the area as the Pacific jet stream remains well
displaced to the north of our area. The result remains very warm to
possibly record breaking warmth across the area for Friday and
Saturday(see climate section below). Have increased temps for these
two days as a result of looking at the ECMWF extreme forecast index
which shows most of the area with a very high chance of seeing record
highs(80-90% tail prob) on both days. Looking at the NBM viewer
shows an even more impressive scenario unfolding with a near lock of
highs eclipsing 80 degrees and even a decent shot of approaching low
90s (40%). Additionally, there is an outside chance that we may
approach or even break our maximum lows with some areas staying in
the mid 60s overnight.

That all ends Sunday as a dry cold front tries to work its way
through our area. Questions still remain how far south the front
advances with several models showing the front lagging just north of
the area through the majority of the day Sunday. This will also have
an impact on high temps with areas south of the front approaching 80
while areas north remain in the low 70s. What is more certain is
this front will act to knock back temperatures some 20 degrees come
Monday with highs struggling to break into the 70s and some spots
(Hill Country, I-35 Corridor) remaining in the 60s. Additionally, we
should see the start of some precip move into the area as some
spotty showers look to try to develop along the stalled front across
our eastern half. Global Models are in disagreement on how long this
front remains parked over us. For now, expect periods of showers and
storms from Monday evening into Wednesday as the front remains draped
across the area. Stay tuned to future discussions as we get closer
and we can fine tune this upcoming wetter pattern with more model
guidance coming in.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Low clouds are developing and moving toward the I-35 terminals.
Ceilings will drop to MVFR in the San Antonio area by the start of,
or shortly there after, this period. They will then spread to Austin
and eventually Del Rio. AUS will bottom out at MVFR. The San Antonio
area will be IFR and DRT LIFR. Recovery Wednesday will be a bit
slower with VFR not returning until early afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 120 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2025

RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(* INDICATES EARLIER YEARS ALSO; THE MOST RECENT TIE IS LISTED)

         02/05    02/06   02/07   02/08

AUS 83/2008* 81/2017 88/2017 86/2017
ATT 82/2008* 83/1925 86/2017 87/2017
SAT 85/2008  83/1925 86/2017 88/2017
DRT 86/1953  87/1911 93/1937 90/2017

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79  65  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  79  64  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     79  64  81  64 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            77  63  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80  61  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        79  64  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             78  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        79  63  81  63 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   80  65  83  65 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  64  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           80  64  85  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...Platt