Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
409 FXUS64 KEWX 161111 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 511 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low stratus and patchy fog possible over the next few mornings - Above average warmth continues early to midweek; daily record highs possible, especially today - Mid to late week storm system brings returning rain and storm chances with the opportunity for strong storms and locally heavy rainfall && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1206 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 An abnormally warm and muggy airmass continues across the region with the persistent southerly low-level flow despite the gradual weakening of the 500 mb heights and a transition to more of a southwesterly flow aloft. The afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 80s for the majority with a few isolated locations reaching the 90 degree mark. Record daily highs could be again threatened, especially today, when the records are lower in comparison to the daily records for Monday. The morning lows for this morning trend in the low to mid 60s along and east of the Balcones Escarpment while mid to upper 50s trend elsewhere. The overnight lows look to trend a little warmer into Monday morning with 60s generally area wide. Late overnight into each morning contends with the development of a low stratus deck and the formation of some patchy to areas of fog. Areas along and to the south of the I-10 corridor are most favored for fog development during each morning. Low clouds and fog erode into mid to late morning, and results in mostly clear skies from the afternoon through the evening. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1206 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 The warm and humid air maintains at least into Wednesday in the advance of the next upper level system and weather maker that is expected to slowly evolve across the Desert Southwest before it eventually advances eastward. While run to run consistency has improved over the past 24 hours, there are still some notable differences on the timing, and placement of the system within the medium range guidance. Details should iron out through the next several days. Nonetheless, the southerly low-level flow should increase from Tuesday entering Wednesday and this helps for the moisture column to gradually deepen. This could allow for the opportunity for morning drizzle and some stray low topped shower activity with warm air advection. Rain and storm chances then increase from Wednesday into Wednesday night with the arrival of greater ascent with any embedded energy with the strengthening southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the main parent low. Enough instability and shear could overlap to monitor for strong storm potential on Wednesday but model sounding analysis does indicate capping at around the 700 mb level, which may limit this threat until the best forcing arrives, which is highlighted below. Guidance continues to trend towards the highest rain and storm chances (50 to 80%) occurring Thursday with the parent upper low moving across the Four Corners and dragging a vort max that may become negatively tilted across the region, in addition to the front. This coupled with the overlap of deep layer shear and instability may result in some organized convection immediately along and ahead of the front. This could yield to some strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall. As mentioned with the previous discussions, the largest footprint for heavy rainfall within the ensemble means focuses from North Texas into Eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Anticipate for the rain chance to drop off once the front slides through but uncertainties grow during the weekend pending a possible secondary system, where the NBM has included some low end (15 to 25%) chances. Thursday sees a dip in temperatures initially thanks to the area rains and cloud cover. However, once the front slides across, a slightly cooler post-frontal airmass unfolds with daytime high temperatures generally in the upper 60s to 70s and overnight low temperatures into the 40s and low 50s. A secondary system this weekend as highlighted in the previous paragraph does provide uncertainties, however, regarding these temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 509 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Low stratus and areas of fog have developed from the Hill Country eastward impacting I-35 terminals this morning. Latest guidance suggests AUS will remain with MVFR ceilings while SAT/SSF fall as low as IFR/LIFR. Additionally, MVFR to IFR visibility is forecast to impact SAT/SSF through the next couple of hours. Low stratus and any fog will improve late morning with VFR conditions returning through Sunday night before redeveloping early Monday morning. Winds Sunday will primarily be from the south to southwest under 10 knots. DRT remains VFR through the period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1227 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Record High Temperatures Day Sun Mon Tue Date 11/16 11/17 11/18 AUS 87/2016 89/2013 84/2017 ATT 87/1938 90/2013 85/1921&1986 SAT 86/1938 89/2013 88/1986&2017 DRT 89/1938 91/190687/1986 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 88 67 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 66 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 66 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 87 65 85 67 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 89 62 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 66 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 88 64 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 65 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 67 87 67 / 0 0 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 87 67 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 87 67 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...27