241
FXUS64 KEWX 151803
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
103 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Dry weather along with above normal temperatures to persist
  across south central Texas through this weekend and well into
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

An upper level low is currently located just the the west of the Rio
Grande with the center of this low now over Nueva Rosita Mexico.
This low will continue pushing further westward toward the big
bend area of TX and away from our area thus leaving us in a high
and dry pattern. Additionally, the upper level ridge located over
Louisiana will continue to slowly meander west northwestward
towards the TX panhandle. As it does so, expect high temperatures
to rise a couple degrees Sunday along with fewer morning clouds as
well. Lows tonight will remain in the 70s with highs tomorrow in
the upper 90s to near 100. One big noticeable change is that
tomorrows heat will feel drier as we will have slightly breezy
southerly winds that will help promote efficient mixing, which
should allow for dew point to decrease during peak heating. While
the temperatures may be a touch hotter it wont actually feel
hotter and humid like it will today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The upper level ridge will continue to be our dominant driving
factor as it slowly drifts west northwestward. As it does
temperatures will continue to increase a little more each day
through the long term. In fact we could be looking at needing a heat
advisory as we could see actual air temps of 103 degrees and perhaps
higher for our eastern CWA. Heat indices shouldn`t be too much
hotter as the combination of the ridge moving closer and efficient
mixing should help lower dewpoints in the lower 60s to perhaps even
some upper 50s. Air temperatures during this stretch are forecast to
continually reach the 100-103 degree range for many areas every day.
Bottom line is that the actual air temperatures will be hotter but
it won`t actually feel hotter when stepping outside. However, it
will still continue to be quite hot across the area so continue to
check back for updates and remember to practice safe heat safety.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR flight conditions will continue from this afternoon through
this evening under a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky. Light to
moderate south-southeasterly breezes persist with the highest
gusts occurring along and behind the seabreeze for the I-35 TAF
sites by or just after sunset with gusts up to 25 kts across the
San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF). Winds then subside from
the overnight into Sunday morning with the return of some low
clouds. The low stratus signal is not quite as widespread as the
past few mornings and looks to focus most over the western Hill
Country and portions of highway 90 between San Antonio and Del
Rio. Have elected to go with a TEMPO group with MVFR ceilings at
KSAT and KSSF while keeping a sct low cloud groups at KAUS and
KDRT. VFR conditions return by late Sunday morning for all with
mostly sunny skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  98  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  99  78 100 /   0  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           75 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...62