697
FXUS64 KEWX 161356
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
856 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

While isolated 1 to 2 inches of rain remains possible over the next
few hours, recent observational trends and model guidance is not
producing the widespread higher rainfall totals as previously
expected. Therefore we have decided to cancel the Flood Watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

The remnant mid level circulation of what was Invest 98L is
currently centered inland over the Brush Country of south Texas and
will continue northwest through the overnight hours. East of this,
southerly H85 flow will be strengthening through the overnight and
early morning up the I-37 corridor and into the U.S. 90 corridor near
and west of San Antonio. A pool of deeper precipitable water values
of around 2.3 inches currently resides over south Texas and moisture
transport vectors from this source are pointed into south-central
Texas.

Showers have already re-developed across inland areas of south
Texas, near the I-37 corridor. 00Z HREF members are in good
agreement with activity working into portions of Karnes, Atascosa,
Frio, Bexar, and Medina counties overnight and then into the western
Hill Country during the early morning hours. With the tropical
nature of the airmass, and potential for training, a few of the HREF
members are generating some isolated stripes of higher rainfall
totals of 3-5 inches today across portions of Medina, Uvalde,
Bandera, Real, and Kerr counties. Out of caution we have elected to
issue a small Flood Watch for this area today and WPC will be
introducing a Level 2 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall leading to
flash flooding.

Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity is forecast, primarily late morning through sunset during
peak instability. The exception may be the Rio Grande, which may
remain on the more subsident, dry side.

Models continue to indicate the forcing weakening and working north
later tonight with drier air moving into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Ridging aloft centered north of the area should result in mainly dry
conditions Sunday and Monday with seasonably warm temperatures. The
ridge shifts west and amplifies over the Four Corners Tuesday
through Thursday, while an inverted trough over the Gulf slides west
into the region. This should lead to increasing chances for showers
and storms across the region Tuesday through Friday, with chances
currently forecast to peak Thursday at 40-70%. High temperatures
also look to trend down late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

A tropical wave and associated small cluster of SHRA with OCNL LTG is
moving to the north passing just west of the KSAT/KSSF sites. Have
VCSH at those sites through mid morning. The wave will leave a moist
airmass in its wake leading to SHRA/TSRA as heating takes hold today.
Have maintained VCSH mention at the I-35 sites. All activity will end
with sunset and loss of heating. Subtropical ridging brings a drier
airmass for Sunday keeping rain out of the forecast. Although the
SHRA/TSRA are disrupting flying categories with a mix of conditions,
areas of MVFR CIGs prevail going into mid morning. Clouds then lift
to VFR by midday. Areas of MVFR CIGs will redevelop overnight, then
mix to VFR by midday on Sunday. Southeasterly winds prevail through
the forecast with 7 to 14 KTs mainly late morning through evening
hours. Winds may become erratic and gusty near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  77  99  77 /  20  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  76  99  76 /  20  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  75  99  74 /  20  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  74  96  74 /  20  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  79 101  78 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  76 100  77 /  20  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  74  99  73 /  50  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  75 100  74 /  20  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  76  98  75 /  20   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  77  99  76 /  30  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           99  77 101  77 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...CJM
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...62