390
FXUS64 KEWX 221059 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
459 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 232 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Yet another cold start is expected Friday morning with nearly calm
surface winds and dewpoints in the upper 20s to mid 30s allowing air
temperatures to tank. Expect temps in the 30s and lower 40s to start
the day, followed by yet another spectacular afternoon with
temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

Mid-level westerly flow will keep things quiet in the short term
period, with mainly clear skies and pleasant conditions. Expect yet
another cool start to Saturday morning, but not quite as cold as
Thursday or Friday morning. Saturday afternoon will see the return
of south to south-southwesterly flow in the sfc to 850mb level,
resulting in a nice bump in temperatures, with highs climbing into
the upper 70s and lower 80s outside of the Hill Country where
temperatures will struggle to get out of the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Southerly flow in the low-levels begins to increase Saturday night as
the pressure gradient tightens in response to a deepening surface low
over southeast Colorado. Overnight lows will trend upward into the
50s as south winds remain gusty over the higher terrain of the
southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Southerly winds remain
intact on Sunday as afternoon highs peak in the mid 70s to upper
80s. Temperatures nudge upward a few degrees on Monday, with lower
80s to near 90 degrees in the forecast. We do expect a cold front to
move into the northern portions of the Hill Country during the late
afternoon or early evening hours. As of now, it looks like the front
won`t impact afternoon highs, but the if the front trends faster, we
may need to adjust highs downward over the mentioned area. Highs on
Tuesday will drop roughly 10 degrees over what we expect on Monday
and this should keep most areas in the 70s. Southerly flow resumes
rather quickly by early Wednesday with a surface low noted over the
Texas Panhandle. Highs on Wednesday briefly warm back into the upper
70s to upper 80s, with another cold front expected Thursday,
Thanksgiving Day. The current round of models show this front will be
a little stronger with the cold air advection and with both the GFS
and ECMWF guidance showing high temperatures lower than the NBM, we
will trend the forecast highs downward as well. If subsequent model
runs remain consistent, we will need to trend our forecast highs even
lower on Thursday. For now, we will keep highs in the mid 60s to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 446 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Little to no change to the previous forecast. Light and variable
winds are expected through most of the period, followed by a shift to
prevailing southerly winds after 16Z Saturday. At DRT, ESE winds can
be expected through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  48  77  59 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  40  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     78  44  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  45  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  50  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  42  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76  44  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  42  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  45  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  48  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  46  80  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...MMM