622
FXUS64 KEWX 291753
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1253 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-40% chance for widely scattered showers and isolated storms
  today and Monday, focusing closer to the Rio Grande Tuesday
  through Friday.
- Near to slightly below average temperatures, especially highs.
- Light concentrations of Saharan dust aloft, mainly across the
  Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

GOES-East total precipitable water loop shows a surge higher
precipitable water of around 2 inches has arrived into the Coastal
Plains. Model guidance indicates this will continue inland into the
inland Coastal Plains, Brush Country, and near San Antonio through
the afternoon and evening. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms have developed across the Coastal Plains and will
continue to spread inland into the above mentioned areas through the
afternoon and early evening, with activity diminishing around and
after sunset.

The higher moisture will continue to spread westward Monday and
Monday night, with a piece of mid level forcing breaking off the
remnants of Tropical Storm Barry and moving northwest, up the Rio
Grande, Monday and Monday night. The moisture and weak forcing will
allow for widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening farther west into the area, closer to the Rio
Grande and Winter Garden region, with isolated coverage of showers
farther east, where influence from the weak ridge just to the east
and light concentrations of Saharan dust reside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Models indicate areas east of I-35 will remain generally under the
influence of a weak mid and upper ridge early to mid week. West of
the ridge, weak disturbances in the southerly flow aloft will move
out of Mexico and into the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau. A
continued stream of higher precipitable water air out of the western
Gulf will also move into this region. The higher chances (20-40%)
for widely scattered showers Tuesday through Friday will be located
across the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau, with only a 10-
20% chance farther east. Light concentrations of Saharan dust may
linger into Tuesday and possible Wednesday, mainly along and east of
I-35, resulting in slightly hazy conditions but no significant
restrictions to visibilities or impacts at the surface.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A rather robust cumulus field has kept skies bordering on MVFR and
VFR through late morning and early afternoon at the I-35 sites.
Expect that to continue, but lean more towards VFR through the
period. PROB30s were kept in place from 18Z-00Z this evening to
account for the chance at showers and thunderstorms at AUS, SAT, and
SSF. Winds will remain on the breezy side but should remain out of
the southeast to south at 5-12 kts. MVFR ceilings are expected at
DRT towards daybreak Monday, but elsewhere expect hazy skies Monday
due to Saharan dust.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  96  75  98 /   0  20   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  95  73  96 /   0  20  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  93  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            73  93  72  95 /   0  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  96  74  91 /  10  20  30  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  94  74  96 /   0  10   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             73  91  71  90 /  10  30  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  94  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  92  73  95 /   0  20   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  93  75  93 /  10  30  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           74  94  74 4 93 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...76
Aviation...MMM