Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
057 FXUS64 KEWX 311128 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 628 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain possible across most areas of south central Texas Sunday afternoon into Monday. Localized flooding possible. - A Flood Watch is in effect for most of south central Texas noon Sunday through noon Monday. - Dry weather returns on Tuesday and stays through the work week. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... A stall frontal boundary over central Texas is forecast to remain there overnight through Sunday morning. By noon Sunday, the frontal boundary slowly begins to push to the south into the Hill Country. By that time precipitable water values are forecast to range from 1.7 to 1.9 inches across the Rio Grande/southern Edwards Plateau to over 2.2 inches over the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and coastal plains. With this abundant tropical moisture in place, we are anticipating several rounds of heavy rain over most of south central Texas mainly Sunday afternoon into the evening and continuing through Monday morning as the frontal boundary slowly push to the south and into the coastal plains. With this in mind, we decided to issue a Flood Watch across most of south central Texas from noon Sunday into noon Monday. It is hard to pin point the areas where the highest rainfall accumulations will fall, however, our confidence is medium to high as far as localized flooding. Storm rainfall totals are forecast to range from 2 to 4 inches with isolated spots up to 8 inches. Stay weather aware and closely monitor weather conditions as this heavy rain event impacts most of south central Texas during this Labor Day holiday extended weekend (into Monday). && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... Dry weather returns on Tuesday and remains through next Saturday. Temperatures will be a slightly below normal values for most locations on Tuesday, however, a slowly warming trend is forecast for the rest of the work week. && .AVIATION (12Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... Ongoing SHRA/TSRA near the Coastal Plains and over Central to Western Texas will gradually drift into our area this morning, then become more numerous this afternoon through Monday morning. Have maintained VCSH late this morning through Monday and PROB30s at the I-35 sites this afternoon into evening and at KDRT this evening. Will monitor trends for possible updates for prevailing impacts through the period. There is a mix of LIFR to MVFR CIGs over Central Texas, however have maintained TEMPOs for MVFR CIGs at the I-35 sites this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites. Lower CIGs/VSBYs are possible in SHRA/TSRA. IFR/MVFR CIGs are expected overnight into Monday morning. S to SE winds shift to E to NE today with passage of a cold front. Sustained speeds of 10 KTs or less prevail. Wind gusts to 40 KTs are possible with any SHRA/TSRA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 73 88 72 94 / 60 60 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 87 72 93 / 60 60 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 89 71 95 / 70 70 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 71 85 68 89 / 60 60 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 88 73 95 / 70 80 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 86 69 91 / 60 60 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 73 88 71 93 / 60 80 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 88 70 95 / 60 70 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 87 72 92 / 50 60 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 89 73 94 / 70 70 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 76 90 75 95 / 60 80 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon CDT today through Monday morning for Atascosa-Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Edwards-Fayette-Frio-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays- Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Medina-Real-Travis- Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Wilson-Zavala. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM...17 AVIATION...04