591
FXUS64 KEWX 031937
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
237 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Low risk for isolated strong to severe storms this evening.

- Better chance for strong to severe storms beginning late Friday
  evening.

Early afternoon surface observations show a cold front moving
southward into the Hill Country with northeast winds at Llano and
Burnet. Farther to the west and southwest, the front as seen by a
line of cu in GOES Ch. 2 imagery, is just north of Rocksprings.
Pressure and wind fields also show a weak surface low in place over
central Val Verde county. For the remainder of the region, a warm
and humid conditions are in place with current readings in the mid
80s to mid 90s.

Concerns in the short term include the possibility of some
convection developing along the I-35 corridor across Williamson and
Travis counties. As the front moves southward through central Texas,
the hi-res models show some isolated convection developing along the
front, with some cells possibly developing farther south into
Williamson and Travis counties between 00Z-04Z. The other area for
possible thunderstorm development will be across Val Verde and
Edwards counties. There is some agitated cu in this region
currently, but the hi-res models tend to favor more robust
thunderstorm development closer to 06Z with the arrival of some
better upper level forcing near the frontal boundary.

Active pattern anticipated Friday with a good chance for scattered
showers and a few storms during the morning hours from the Hill
Country eastward into the I-35 corridor near and north of San
Antonio. The above mentioned front may serve as focus for convection
during the afternoon hours along the I-35 corridor on Friday as
indicated by some of the hi-res models. There will be a better
chance for shower and thunderstorm development beginning Friday
evening across the Edwards Plateau southward to near Del Rio as
better forcing for ascent arrives in the active south-southwest flow
aloft. Showers and storms are then expected to spread eastward into
the Hill Country and I-35 corridor during the overnight hours into
Saturday morning. SPC maintains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe storms for areas generally along and north of a Rocksprings
to Uvalde to San Antonio to Austin line for Friday into early
Saturday. For the remainder of the region, a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5) for severe storms is forecast. The main concerns will be large
hail and damaging winds, with the recent SPC Day 2 outlook showing
significant hail (2" diameter or greater) across the southern
Edwards Plateau and most of the Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Gusty winds and much cooler temperatures expected Saturday
  afternoon through Sunday morning.

- Wind chills in the mid 20s to mid 30s Sunday morning, followed by
  lows in the 30s and 40s Morning morning.

A powerful storm system will send an unseasonably strong polar cold
front through our are Saturday morning, with gusty winds, perhaps
meeting Wind Advisory criteria, developing in its wake Saturday
afternoon and lasting through Sunday morning. With unusually strong
cold air advection and a tight pressure gradient behind the front,
expect sustained winds between 20-30 mph, with gusts up and over 40
mph not out of the question. This will result in wind chills, YES,
wind chills, in the mid to upper 20s over the Hill Country, and the
30s elsewhere on Sunday morning. Highs this weekend will plummet,
from the 80s and 90s today and Friday, to the 70s on Saturday and
struggling to get out of the 50s on Sunday afternoon.

Our late season cold snap shouldn`t result in freezing temperatures,
but some spots could dip as low as the middle 30s Monday morning, so
it`s not quite time to put jackets into storage. Beyond Monday,
temperatures should start to moderate through the week back to more
seasonable levels, and highs back in the 80s by Wednesday and
Thursday along with light northwesterly flow aloft and dry
conditions.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Clouds bases have lifted and VFR is expected to continue through the
afternoon hours. We will need to monitor for some isolated convection
near AUS between 00-03Z as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. As of now, chances are too low to warrant a TEMPO group,
but we will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as needed.
Otherwise, look for cigs to quickly develop along I-35 between
02-04Z, with mainly MVFR. We did opt for some IFR cigs at AUS along
with some BR around sunrise. We will also carry prevailing showers
here given southerly flow in the lower levels and a front in the
region. We can`t rule out some showers farther south at SAT and SSF,
but will leave our for now due to lower confidence. Out west at DRT,
we expect a challenging wind forecast with the dryline wavering back
and forth. Some late evening convection is likely to develop over
northern and possibly central Val Verde county closer to 04/06Z. We
will not mention any convection for DRT as current data shows the
better coverage north of the terminal. MVFR cigs will return to DRT
around 10Z as moisture surges in from the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  84  62  72 /  30  50 100  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  86  61  73 /  20  50  90  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  88  65  77 /  20  40  80  30
Burnet Muni Airport            64  78  58  68 /  40  60 100  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  89  61  78 /  30  20  80  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  81  59  69 /  40  60 100  50
Hondo Muni Airport             71  91  61  78 /  20  20  80  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  87  62  75 /  20  50  90  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  86  70  77 /  10  40  70  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  88  64  77 /  20  30  80  20
Stinson Muni Airport           74  91  66  80 /  10  20  70  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Platt