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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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665 FXUS64 KEWX 222335 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 535 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 156 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered showers near the I-35 corridor and into the Coastal Plains tonight - Clearing west to east and warmer on Sunday Chance for showers (20-50%) continue tonight near the I-35 and I-37 corridors into the Coastal Plains as the last of the forcing in the base of the upper level trough moves across the region. With the exception of some locations in northern Kerr, Gillespie, and Llano counties, the remainder of the area will remain above freezing tonight, with no concern for freezing rain like this morning. Fog is possible overnight in some areas, with most locations in the 2-5 mile visibility range that experience it. However, there could be a window Sunday morning for dense fog across portions of Edwards and Val Verde counties. Showers will exit east of the region Sunday morning, with clearing taking place west to east through the day. This will finally lead to warmer temperatures, with highs forecast to range from the mid 70s along the Rio Grande, where to clearing takes place first, to the upper 50s across the U.S. 77 corridor in the east, where clearing is last to occur. Clear skies, light winds, and near surface moisture should assist with the development of fog for some areas of the Coastal Plains up the U.S. 77 corridor late Sunday night, with a potential for dense fog. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 156 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Key Messages... - Warming into the 70s and 80s Monday through Wednesday - The passage of a cold front brings cooler temperatures on Thursday - Elevated fire weather concerns across the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains Monday through Friday After patchy to areas of fog (can`t rule out isolated spots under dense fog) across the coastal plains on Monday morning, skies are clearing mid to late morning into the afternoon for sunny skies. Monday`s highs are forecasted to reach the mid to upper 70s and even lower 80s along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows are forecasted to range from the mid to upper 40s with patchy fog developing after midnight across the coastal plains and lingering through mid morning on Tuesday. A couple of sunny to partly cloudy days are in store for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s along the Rio Grande. By Wednesday night, a cold front is anticipated to push across the Hill Country and across the rest of the local area through the overnight period. Cooler temperatures are expected for Thursday in the wake of the cold front with highs in the upper 60s across the Hill Country to mid 70s along the Rio Grande. No precipitation is expected per latest GFS solution. The ECMWF shows some light qpf overnight across the Hill Country and to the west of Del Rio while the latest LREF solution shows less than 10 percent of 0.01 of rainfall across the Hill Country as the cold front pushes through the local area. Therefore, a dry forecast is set for the passage of the frontal boundary. A quick return of southerly flow brings back the highs into the mid to upper 70s on Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 524 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 IFR to LIFR ceilings are expected through tonight across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). Light drizzle continues through at least the first 6 hours of the operational period. Additionally, area visibility will generally trend in the 2 to 5 mile range across the region through the overnight into early Sunday morning. KDRT stays VFR early but will reduce to MVFR ceilings overnight with perhaps a temporary period of IFR conditions closer to sunrise. Flight conditions improve to VFR levels on Friday as skies gradually clear out from west to east across the region. Winds will remain light with speeds near 5 knots or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 156 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande through the work week as minimum relative humidities drop to the teens and lower 20s each afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 37 64 41 74 / 20 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 34 63 38 73 / 30 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 37 66 40 76 / 20 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 36 66 39 77 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 36 75 41 84 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 38 64 39 74 / 20 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 34 70 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 36 64 38 73 / 20 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 36 59 38 70 / 40 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 38 67 43 75 / 20 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 37 68 41 75 / 20 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...76 Long-Term...17 Aviation...Brady