062
FXUS64 KEWX 060556
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1256 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Low to medium (15-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms
Today and Labor Day

- Daily sea breeze thunderstorm chances in the Coastal Plains
through much of next week

- Humid conditions with above average temperatures and peak heat
indices continue

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A large and expansive upper level ridge continues to remain parked
over the Great Plains when looking at upper air analysis. A weak
disturbance currently located over the western Gulf is noted via
water vapor satellite imagery. Eventually the mid to upper ridge
will shift to the east through the short term period, but will
continue to dominate over Texas and our area. The disturbance over
the Gulf will continue to drift slowly to the west eventually moving
inland over Texas. As it does so, it will generate isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day today. Given the
continued hot airmass in place, some storms may produce strong gusty
winds much like we have seen the past few afternoons. Additionally,
convection will be diurnally driven and will likely wane as we lose
our daytime heating.

Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees for Sunday. Monday we could see similar conditions
as the disturbance remains over the area and fizzles out. We should
see highs just a few degrees warmer upper 90s low 100s for most with
heat indices once again just below or near advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The strong upper level ridge will eventually break down over the
northern part of the country. However, it will continue to control
the weather across the southern states. We will remain under
southeasterly low level flow which will continue to keep hot, moist
air over South-Central Texas. Additionally we could see some
seabreeze convection occur daily from Tuesday through Thursday
mainly over the Coastal Plains, but chances remain rather low.
Otherwise expect the majority of our area to remain hot and dry with
highs in the upper 90s to near 100 each day and lows in the low to
mid 70s. We could likely see heat indices just shy of heat advisory
criteria (108+ degrees) as moisture will remain across the area.
Continue to check back to future forecasts and remember to practice
safe heat safety.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

All local terminals are sitting at VFR conditions as of this
writing. However, low clouds do develop during the overnight hours
and forecast to arrive to the San Antonio area by 11Z. From this
time through 15Z, MVFR cigs are forecast for KSAT and KSSF. I have
opted to keep MVFR cigs out of KAUS since NBM guidance is
suggesting less than 10 percent probability of occurrence.
Otherwise, VFR cigs are forecast all local sites by late morning.
However, it may not last long as showers are anticipated for the
mid to late afternoon with MVFR cigs returning back to the I-35
sites including KAUS. Around 00Z Monday, VFR cigs come back
through the evening. KDRT stays VFR through the forecast cycle.
A southeast to south wind flow of 5 to 10 knots is forecast to
prevail for most of the forecast period with higher gusts in the
afternoon and evening and with any shower/storm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  77  99  77 /  40   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  76  98  77 /  40   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  75  98  76 /  30  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            94  74  95  74 /  40   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  75  97  76 /  20  10  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  76  98  76 /  40   0  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  73  97  74 /  20  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  75  99  75 /  30  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  77  98  77 /  40  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  77  97  78 /  30  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  77  99  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...17