531
FXUS64 KEWX 041805
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1205 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through this week with new record highs possible
  Tuesday and Wednesday, turning cooler next weekend.

- Slight chances of showers portions of our area mid week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday, possibly near critical
  Friday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Southerly lower level flow is returning to our area with an increase
in moisture expected. This will lead to low clouds and fog, some
locally dense, overnight into morning hours. Later shifts will
monitor and may have to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for portions of
our area. Cannot rule out a few patches of light mist. The thermal
ridge maintains above average temperatures. A moderate surface
pressure gradient may yield breezy and gusty winds Monday afternoon
across portions of the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

A Pacific front pushes into our area on Tuesday, then retreats back
to the west on Wednesday while an enhanced lower level thermal ridge
remains. This causes temperatures to soar into the 80s across most
areas each afternoon. Record highs for Tuesday the 6th and Wednesday
the 7th may be broken or tied. See the Climate section below for the
current records.

A Pacific front moves across our area in the late Wednesday night
through Thursday night time frame, then a front with some Canadian
origin moves across our area later on Friday. Although a weakening
lower level thermal ridge on Thursday and cold advection on Friday
begin a cooling trend, temperatures remain above average. Then, as
cold advection kicks in, near to perhaps below average temperatures
are expected next weekend. The passage of a mid level impulse to our
north and the fronts may bring some showers. Currently, the best
chances, though 25% or less, continue across the Edwards Plateau,
Hill Country, and Central Texas portions of the I-35 corridor
Wednesday night into Thursday. However, there is a potential for
chances to be added across portions of our area Thursday afternoon
into night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

VFR flying conditions will rapidly deteriorate overnight into Monday
morning to IFR/LIFR/VLIFR as lower level moisture surges over our
area on S-SE flow. Clouds and fog will mix to VFR Monday afternoon
as winds increase.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

In wake of a Pacific front, minimum humidities fall into the upper
teens to 20s across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country Tuesday
afternoon. However, wind speeds of less than 10 mph are expected.
Thus, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible. In
the wake of a stronger front, minimum humidities in the teens and
20s are expected across most of South Central Texas each day Friday
through next Sunday. Northerly winds may become breezy and gusty
with a more widespread threat of elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Record High Temperatures

    Tue/6th    Wed/7th

AUS 84/1989    80/1978
ATT 84/1989*   80/2008*
SAT 84/1989    86/1923
DRT 82/2023*   83/1923

*also earlier years

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              51  73  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  49  75  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     49  75  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            49  73  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           52  73  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        49  73  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             49  73  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        49  76  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   49  77  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       52  73  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           53  76  60  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04