Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
799 FXUS64 KEWX 032337 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 637 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures and some low rain chances into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 A subtle increase in moisture on GOES satellite layer precipitable water imagery is noted across the western Gulf into portions of the Texas coast this afternoon. Some light showers are currently developing across the coastal plains and as the edge of this moisture moves westward, some isolated showers may develop as far west as U.S. Highway 281. No significant rainfall amounts are expected with this activity. Some slightly drier air moves in from the north/northeast on Saturday and this will likely keep any rain chances confined to right along the Texas coast. Highs today are still on track to top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s. A slight weakening of the low-level thermal ridge *may* allow highs to drop a degree or two on Saturday. However, we will still be some 5 to 8 degrees above climatological normals. Low temperatures will be mainly in the 60s with a few upper 50s in the Hill Country. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 A slight increase in moisture briefly moves back into the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor Sunday and may allow for a few showers to develop in the afternoon. For now, we will keep rain chances low over the mentioned areas, with dry conditions across the remainder of south central Texas. We could also see enough moisture spread back west into the I-35 corridor and Hill Country to warrant a low chance for showers into Monday. Any rainfall amounts will likely remain low given the isolated coverage of convection. As we head into the middle and late portion of next week, the models generally favor a re-strengthening of the subtropical ridge axis across southern Texas into the western Gulf. A weak front may move into north Texas during the middle of the upcoming week. There is a decent area of surface high pressure (1030mb) across the Great Lakes region and this may be enough to eventually get some weak north to northeast winds into south central Texas late Wednesday. We will keep a low chance for showers and storms in the forecast across most of south central Texas on Wednesday. However, would like to see a stronger front and some signal of mid and upper level support before increasing our rain chances above 20%. We do not expect any significant cooling as we head into late next week behind the above mentioned boundary. Highs will still remain above normal along with near to above normal lows. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 We`re showing slightly more wind with some gusts to 16 knots along I-35 as a sea-breeze boundary can be seen moving into the area. Light winds will resume by mid-evening and VFR skies will continue. A few showers formed around AUS over the past couple hours but now appear to be decreasing in coverage. Persistence type weather can be expected Saturday and more stray showers will be possible in the afternoon. The on thing that make go differently: the afternoon switch to NE surface winds may not happen tomorrow as model time sections show a deeper layer of SE low level winds for Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 68 93 69 93 / 10 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 67 92 66 93 / 10 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 93 66 94 / 10 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 66 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 66 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 66 92 66 93 / 10 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 70 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Platt LONG TERM....Platt AVIATION...18