293
FXUS64 KEWX 182319
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
619 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Remaining flood waters continue moving downstream in the Nueces, Frio,
  San Antonio, Llano, and Rio Grande basins. Avoid flooded areas.

- Typical hot July heat and humidity resumes across the area

- Dry weather to continue this weekend into late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The heavy rain and flash flooding threat has finally come to a close
for South Central Texas. However rises will continue to move
downstream many of the region`s swollen rivers, including Cibolo
Creek, Llano River, Nueces River, Frio River, and the Pecos River
into the Rio Grande. Some impacts from elevated rises will be seen
into early next week for some riverine areas as flood waters
gradually disperse or spread across floodplains. Avoid flooded areas
and do not drive through flooded roads.

The mid-level shear axis that has been responsible over much of the
past week has finally drifted to the northwest. While it will linger
across the Texas panhandle and West Texas region, it should
gradually erode as mid-level ridging finally builds in from the
north. Most of the region is expected to remain rain free this
afternoon into tonight with the exception of far western rural Val
Verde County which could still see a brief light shower or two.
Clouds will begin increasing this evening into tonight and then we
should see clouds break up and erode by late morning as we return to
a more typical mid summer Texas weather pattern.

Lows tonight should remain in the low to mid 70s as we remain very
humid overnight. Highs Sunday should top out in the upper 80s in the
Southern Edwards Plateau and into the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Any
standing water and near surface soil moistures from the recent rain
will prevent dewpoints from mixing out as much, helping to keep heat
indices elevated in the 100 to 105 degree range. Though relatively
warm, these values look to remain below the heat advisory criteria.
Expect another warm and humid overnight Sunday night with many areas
remaining in the 70s along with low stratus late overnight into the
Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

We finally get to catch our breath as the long term portion features
more of our typical hot july heat for South Central Texas. A hot and
dry weather pattern is expected to remain through next week as mid-
level ridging continues to gradually increase and build southward
into North-Central Texas. This will allow for high temperatures to
inch upwards slightly day by day. We will need to closely monitor
the dew points given the remaining ground moisture from the recent
rains and flood event. Models are consistently overdoing the mixing
out of dew points during the day which could increase our potential
heat concerns as we head into early next week. Right now as it
stands we look to remain just shy of heat advisory criteria with
heat indices from 100 to 106 degrees through the period. Otherwise,
skies should stay partly cloudy to mostly sunny with no rain
expected. with the exception being maybe seeing a very stray sea
breeze shower over the coastal plains late in the week as
southeasterly flow returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions are currently prevailing across all terminals.
Another round of MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings are likely by
08Z with VFR returning during the mid morning hours. Winds will
generally be out of the south-southeast around 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  95  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  94  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  92  75  94 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  94  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  93  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  94  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...Castillo