168
FXUS64 KEWX 261749 CCA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1249 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

- Warm conditions will continue through the weekend and into next
  week.

- Isolated showers and storms today, Friday, and Sunday, mainly
  Coastal Plains into the I-35 corridor.

- Light concentrations of Saharan dust arriving over the weekend and
  increasing into early to mid next week, bringing hazy conditions
  to the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Hill Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Widely scattered showers and storms have developed out of the
Coastal Plains into southeast Texas midday. Isolated coverage of
showers and storms is expected to develop farther inland toward the
I-35 corridor and eastern Hill Country through the afternoon hours,
assisted with daytime heating and mesoscale forcing along outflow
boundaries. The loss of diurnal heating around and after sunset will
lead to convection dissipating. Precipitable water values will
decrease slightly into Friday, leading to only 10-20% chances for
isolated, daytime showers and storms, primarily over the Coastal
Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Our first plume of seasonal Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust is forecast
to arrive in waves, initially light concentrations over the weekend
and increasing in concentrating Monday through Wednesday. Low and
mid level flow trajectories should keep the higher concentrations of
dust, which is mainly aloft, confined to the Coastal Plains, I-35
corridor and Hill Country. The main noticeable impacts will be a more
hazy, milky appearance to the sky during the day and slightly more
vibrant sunsets.

There is a surge of high precipitable water values, just ahead of
the leading edge of the higher dust concentrations, that is forecast
to move out of the Bay of Campeche and into the the area late
Saturday night through Sunday. There is a signal in a few of the
models of an uptick in diurnally driven showers and storms across
the Coastal Plains into the I-35 corridor on Sunday, isolated to
widely scattered in coverage. This moisture could pool farther west
along the Rio Grande on Monday, with the increase in the SAL dust
resulting in a drier conditions east. Otherwise, warm conditions
will continue through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions are expected across the I-35 corridor sites as well
as for KDRT through the overnight hours. Southerly wind flow ranging
from 6 to 14 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots especially
for KDRT. There is a slight chance (10 percent or less for the most
part) for showers and thunderstorm activity across the I-35 corridor
between 19Z to 23Z. With such low probabilities, decided not to use
a PROB30, however, mentioning here for awareness. Otherwise, winds
decrease to less than 10 knots late this evening into the overnight
hours while blowing from the south. MVFR cigs are forecasted for the
I-35 terminals starting around 09Z and lingering through 15Z Friday.
VFR cigs return for the I-35 sites after 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              94  74  96  73 /  30  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  72  96  72 /  30  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  72  95  73 /  30  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            92  73  94  73 /  20   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  73  95  73 /  20   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  72  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  72  94  72 /  40  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  73  93  73 /  40  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  75  93  74 /  20  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  74  95  73 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...76
Aviation...17