989
FXUS64 KEWX 212000
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
200 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 128 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Key Messages:

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6pm this evening through 9am
  Saturday for Bexar, Comal, Hays, Caldwell, Guadalupe, Wilson, and
  Gonzales Counties for freezing rain.

- Accumulations will range from a few hundredths to 1/10th of an
  inch, particularly on elevated surfaces, bridges, and overpasses.

- Temperatures warm back above freezing and stay above freezing after
  mid-morning Saturday through the remainder of the short term.

Latest regional satellite imagery depicts expansive stratus and low
cloud cover over south and central Texas. Light east-northeasterly
winds and a shallow cold airmass remain in place early this
afternoon. The latest HREF guidance came in with an aggressive
approach to freezing rain across our central and eastern CWA. With
regard to impacts of accumulations, particularly on elevated surface,
bridges, and overpasses, and the potential to impact travel late
Friday night and early Saturday morning, have opted to issue a Winter
Weather Advisory for the counties mentioned above for ice
accumulations. The NBM and the global guidance aren`t handling this
event well at all, so reliance on mesoscale features and nowcasting
have become particularly important at this distance. In any matter,
once we get through mid-morning, temperatures should warm above
freezing at all locations, with a cold rain expected for the
remainder of the day through early evening Saturday. Rain should
clear from west to east and mostly be out of our CWA by Sunday
morning. Temperatures should also remain above freezing Saturday
night, so any refreezing or additional freezing rain is unlikely at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 128 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Key Messages:

- Warming trend begins Sunday, with above normal temperatures
  developing Monday through Wednesday.

The upper level trough exits to the east Sunday and Sunday night,
with precipitation chances ending across the far eastern counties
Sunday morning. Dry conditions then prevail across south-central
Texas through the remainder of the forecast. High temperatures
Monday through Wednesday warm to above normal for this time of year.
By Wednesday high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80s
along the Rio Grande, upper 70s to around 80 along the I-35
corridor, and mid 70s Coastal Plains. There is a weak front that we
will watch for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, although
there is spread in the global ensembles on the push behind it and
degree of cooler air. A few ensemble members are also generating
some light precipitation amounts along the front, although the
majority, and this official forecast, are dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

A rather tricky forecast today through tomorrow with possible -FZDZ
working into terminals this evening through tomorrow morning.
Confidence remains highest for northern Bexar county, but trends will
need to be monitored for possible FZDZ at SAT and possibly SSF. For
now, have opted to go with -FZDZ 06Z to 13Z at AUS, with PROB30
groups utilized for -SHRA Saturday late morning and through the
afternoon. Winds should remain ENE at less than 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              31  41  37  60 /  20  30  40  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  30  41  36  60 /  20  30  50  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     30  43  37  62 /  20  30  40  10
Burnet Muni Airport            28  44  37  63 /  10  10  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           34  51  38  73 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        29  42  37  62 /  10  20  30   0
Hondo Muni Airport             32  46  38  67 /  20  30  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        29  41  36  60 /  20  30  50  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   30  42  37  56 /  20  40  50  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       31  43  39  64 /  20  30  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           31  43  39  64 /  20  40  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday
for Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...76
Aviation...MMM