Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
582 FXUS64 KEWX 140000 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 700 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms favored this afternoon/evening and again on Saturday. - Temperatures remain near seasonal levels for mid August. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Daytime heating and moisture have allowed for a slow, but steady increase in convection early this afternoon across portions of south central Texas. Overall, the current forecast for the remainder of today is on track. However, we did opt to raise precipitation chances slightly from the Hill Country eastward into the I-35 corridor north of San Antonio and into the coastal plains region. While most of the convection is expected to decrease with the loss of daytime heating, at least a few of the models show some low potential for a few showers or storms to linger through late evening hours. Similar to yesterday, a few of the stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Moisture levels are expected to decrease slightly on Thursday and this should lead to a reduction in the coverage of afternoon and evening convection. We should still see enough moisture to lead to at least isolated showers and storms from the Hill Country eastward into most of the I-35 corridor and coastal plains. Temperatures today should be near normal, with a slight upward trend expected on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 On Friday, we should start to see an uptick in moisture levels from the Gulf as the tropical wave currently near the Yucatan Peninsula gradually moves northwestward. Rain chances on Friday will initially be favored across the coastal plains. However, moisture continues to increase on Saturday and this will result in scattered convection across most of south central Texas. An increase in cloud cover should help keep temperatures at or perhaps just below normal on Saturday. Mid and upper level ridging appears to build in rather quickly on Sunday and this will keep any rain chances limited to the coastal plains region. Mid and upper level high pressure remains centered over the central and southern Rockies through the remainder of the forecast period. A weakness in the mid-levels may develop near the Texas coast early next week and this combined with adequate moisture should keep a low chance for showers and storms in the forecast. Temperatures are largely expected to remain near seasonal averages for mid-August. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Isolated TSRA cleared past the I-35 terminals as of 00z, though isolated TSRA continues in the vicinity of ERV and DRT. Have added a TEMPO at DRT through 02Z for gusty VRB winds and -TSRA. Most convective activity should dissipate regionwide by 03Z. VFR should prevail overnight at most sites, though could see patchy buildup of low clouds near AUS and SAT after 09z thanks to today`s rains with MVFR CIGs possible. Clouds lift and break by 16Z tomorrow. Another round of isolated TSRA is possible after 18Z, but confidence in location and timing was too low to add PROB30 groups for now. Outside of convective activity, prevailing winds hold below 10 kt from the south to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 99 77 98 / 30 20 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 98 77 98 / 30 20 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 99 75 98 / 30 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 75 95 75 94 / 20 20 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 102 80 100 / 20 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 97 76 98 / 20 20 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 75 100 75 99 / 20 10 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 99 75 99 / 30 20 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 97 75 96 / 30 20 10 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 99 77 98 / 20 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 101 77 100 / 20 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...Platt Aviation...Tran