888
FXUS64 KEWX 201119
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
619 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Key Messages:

- Line of rain and thunderstorms will continue to advance towards
the I-35 corridor through early to mid morning; a level 1 to 2 out
of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms remains

- Skies clear out from west to east through majority of the region
by late morning and afternoon with drier dew points and slightly
lower temperatures for outdoor activities

A line of thunderstorms has now extended southward along the front
across the Southern Edwards Plateau. This line of rain and storms
will gradually slide eastward with activity reaching the I-35
corridor during early to mid morning. Storm intensifies are most
likely to peak to the west of the I-35 corridor through about this
morning where the instability is greatest. Instability values do
lower closer to the I-35 corridor. This continues to match the
thinking from the SPC with the level 2 of 5 risk of severe storms
through 12Z holding west of the I-35 corridor before lowering to a
level 1 of 5 risk along the I-35 corridor and then down to the
general thunder risk for the coastal plains as storms continue to
weaken in intensity. Large hail and damaging winds continue to
remain the primary concern followed by an isolated tornado. Storms
will also be capable of locally heavy rainfall where the isolated
rainfall totals could exceed 1 to 2 inches within the heaviest
storms.

The front and the leftover line of showers/storms will continue to
make eastward progress into the coastal plains as we go into the
afternoon before the front eventually stalls as it nears the gulf
coast. Majority of the region should see the skies clear from west
to east by the late morning and afternoon hours with the light to
modest north to northeasterly winds helping to usher in slightly
cooler and drier air. This leads to a nice and comfortable second
half of the holiday for outdoor holiday activities. An exception
would be across the coastal plains around the highway 77 corridor
where lingering isolated to scattered showers or storms will be
possible closer to the front and in the more humid airmass. There
could be some growth of storms with daytime heating but greatest
risk for a strong to severe storm remains east-northeast of the
region across the HGX, FWD, and SHV CWAs.

A comfortable and cooler night will be expected tonight featuring
lows in the 50s for locations along and to the west of the I-35
corridor. Conditions trend warmer and more humid closer to the
coastal plains and the highway 77 corridor nearer the stalled out
front. Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible across
that region Sunday night through Monday. Elsewhere, rain free
conditions should persist through Monday. Monday will otherwise
trend warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s and 90s with the
ample sunshine and the turning of the flow more easterly and east-
southeasterly with time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Key Messages:

- Favorable pattern for rain looks to setup this week and continue
  through the entire long term period and beyond.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the long term
  period despite the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 Outlooks indicating above
  normal precip.

An active spring weather pattern is set to impact the region this
week, with near daily rain and storm chances and above normal
temperatures. On Tuesday, despite a rather muted mid to upper level
pattern, with southwest flow aloft and a series of embedded
shortwaves every other day, an active pattern with rain and storm
chances appears likely through the bulk of the long term. ESAT
tables from both the ECM and GFS indicate PWATs for this time of the
year in the 90th percentile or greater through the long term period,
and with a deep moisture profile indicated on model forecast
soundings, expect that storms that organize could pose a locally
heavy rainfall threat that could lead to minor flooding. If soils do
indeed become saturated from rainfall, it would take a rather
significant amount, particularly out west where our multi-year
drought characterized by Extreme to Exceptional Drought continues.
Several area lakes and reservoirs are at all-time lows and would
need significant rainfall measured in feet to get back to normal
levels. With regard to timing, Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, and
again Thursday into early Friday bring the best odds at widespread
showers and storms.

Beyond Friday, medium range models begin to diverge with respect to
the timing of the next long wave trough digging over the Western
CONUS. Despite near daily rain and storm chances, our temperatures
will remain on the warmer than normal side, generally in the 80s and
lower 90s, along with increasingly more humid nights and
temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

An ongoing line of showers and thunderstorms near the I-35 terminals
will shift east of the sites by 13 to 14Z. A few lingering showers
may remain possible behind the line for another hour or so. With this
activity, MVFR ceilings remain possible. VFR conditions then return
with skies clearing from west to east from mid-morning onward into
the afternoon. Skies are already clearing at KDRT and will remain VFR
through the remainder of the operational period. Outside from gusts
with the ongoing showers and storms, winds trend lighter at the I-35
terminals of around 5 to 8 kts from mainly the north-northeast but
directions could trend variable at times. For DRT, winds slightly
increase this afternoon from the northwest before trending towards
and beyond sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  59  87  66 /  60   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  80  55  87  65 /  60   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     81  57  88  66 /  60   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            78  54  85  64 /  40   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           86  57  92  69 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  54  86  63 /  60   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             82  55  89  65 /  30   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        80  56  87  65 /  60   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   81  62  86  67 /  40  20  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       80  59  88  68 /  40   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           82  60  89  68 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Brady