830
FXUS64 KEWX 230448
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1048 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 156 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers near the I-35 corridor and into the
Coastal Plains tonight
- Clearing west to east and warmer on Sunday

Chance for showers (20-50%) continue tonight near the I-35 and I-37
corridors into the Coastal Plains as the last of the forcing in the
base of the upper level trough moves across the region. With the
exception of some locations in northern Kerr, Gillespie, and Llano
counties, the remainder of the area will remain above freezing
tonight, with no concern for freezing rain like this morning. Fog is
possible overnight in some areas, with most locations in the 2-5
mile visibility range that experience it. However, there could be a
window Sunday morning for dense fog across portions of Edwards and
Val Verde counties.

Showers will exit east of the region Sunday morning, with clearing
taking place west to east through the day. This will finally lead to
warmer temperatures, with highs forecast to range from the mid 70s
along the Rio Grande, where to clearing takes place first, to the
upper 50s across the U.S. 77 corridor in the east, where clearing is
last to occur. Clear skies, light winds, and near surface moisture
should assist with the development of fog for some areas of the
Coastal Plains up the U.S. 77 corridor late Sunday night, with a
potential for dense fog.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Key Messages...

- Warming into the 70s and 80s Monday through Wednesday
- The passage of a cold front brings cooler temperatures on Thursday
- Elevated fire weather concerns across the western Hill Country,
southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains Monday through Friday

After patchy to areas of fog (can`t rule out isolated spots under
dense fog) across the coastal plains on Monday morning, skies are
clearing mid to late morning into the afternoon for sunny skies.
Monday`s highs are forecasted to reach the mid to upper 70s and even
lower 80s along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows are forecasted to
range from the mid to upper 40s with patchy fog developing after
midnight across the coastal plains and lingering through mid morning
on Tuesday.

A couple of sunny to partly cloudy days are in store for Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s along the Rio Grande.
By Wednesday night, a cold front is anticipated to push across the
Hill Country and across the rest of the local area through the
overnight period. Cooler temperatures are expected for Thursday in
the wake of the cold front with highs in the upper 60s across the
Hill Country to mid 70s along the Rio Grande. No precipitation is
expected per latest GFS solution. The ECMWF shows some light qpf
overnight across the Hill Country and to the west of Del Rio while
the latest LREF solution shows less than 10 percent of 0.01 of
rainfall across the Hill Country as the cold front pushes through the
local area. Therefore, a dry forecast is set for the passage of the
frontal boundary. A quick return of southerly flow brings back the
highs into the mid to upper 70s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

IFR to LIFR ceilings are expected through the overnight into Sunday
morning across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). Visibility
will generally remain in the 2 to 5 mile range as well. Light
drizzle could persist until around 09 UTC before finally drying out
at those sites. KDRT drops into MVFR ceilings overnight but will
become tricky towards or just after sunrise as clouds could decrease
while some portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau to the north to
northeast of the site could see fog and very low ceilings develop.
Elected to put a tempo showing sct clouds with a slight lowering
with visibility and sct cloud bases of 200 feet. VFR conditions then
return from mid to late morning into the afternoon as skies clear
from west to east. Towards early Monday morning, late within the 30
hour operational TAF period, indications show that fog and low to
very low ceilings could develop at KAUS and KSAT. We`ll monitor
trends and update in coming TAF cycles on that potential. Winds will
otherwise remain light through the period with speeds around 5 kts
or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the western
Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande through the
work week as minimum relative humidities drop to the teens and lower
20s each afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              38  64  41  74 /  20   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  38  63  38  73 /  20   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     38  66  40  76 /  20   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            38  66  39  77 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           38  75  41  84 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        38  64  39  74 /  20   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             38  70  39  77 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        37  64  38  73 /  20   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   39  59  38  70 /  50  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       39  67  43  75 /  20   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           39  68  41  75 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...17
Aviation...Brady