489
FXUS64 KEWX 041502
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1002 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Updating the POPs again as the storm in Val Verde County is
outperforming the short term model. It should continue for another
hour or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Level 1-2 out of 5 risk for severe storms early this morning
primarily across the Hill Country to near and north of the Austin
metro area

- Some redevelopment possible in afternoon across the eastern 1/3
of area; isolated strong to severe storm may be possible

The latest regional radar imagery depicts a line of thunderstorms,
some strong to severe, pushing southward from Waco to Lampasas to
Menard. These storms may weaken somewhat, particularly along the
eastern periphery of the line as modest shear and a deeper warm
layer should result in the boundary undercutting new development.
Nevertheless, it is still late spring in south central Texas and
severe storms remain possible through early morning, particularly
over the Hill Country. The primary threats are hail and damaging
winds, but locally heavy rainfall over saturated soils from last
weeks rainfall could lead to some isolated incidents of flash
flooding.

How long storms linger this morning will determine how far west
storms will reform this afternoon. Various high res CAMs indicate
storms will form as far south as the I-10 Corridor later today,
while others insist on development as far north and west as the
Austin metro. Ultimately, storm development will be dependent on
where any residual outflow boundaries setup this afternoon after the
morning convection. SPC placed a level 1 of 5 across the eastern
1/3rd of the region this afternoon for this possible redevelopment.

On Thursday, dry weather is expected for most of the region. There
is a potential for some storms to work into Val Verde County late in
the afternoon, but the threat appears to be more into Thursday night
and more on that can be found in the long term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Hotter through the weekend with elevated heat indices

- Returning low to medium (20-40%) rain and storm chances during
early to mid next week

Isolated rain/storm activity could approach or briefly enter Val
Verde County on Thursday evening but cells will likely weaken later
into the night with increasing convective inhibition from loss of
daytime heating. This is likely to be the last of the rain/storm
chances across South-Central Texas through the majority of the
weekend as a 592 to 593 dm upper level ridge develops and settles
across the region with increased subsident air. The primary weather
story will transition to the building heat as the temperatures are
to soar Friday through this weekend back into the 100 to 105 degree
range for many with heat indices peaking as high as the 105 to 110
degree range as well. This may trigger heat advisories across at
least portions of the area. Conditions will remain very warm at
night as well with overnight lows ranging from the mid to the upper
70s across most locations. Anticipate some pockets of low stratus
to develop into each morning.

The center of the ridge slides westward into and through the day on
Sunday and this will allow for a northwesterly flow aloft to return
across the region. This northwesterly flow and enough of a breakdown
with the ridge occurs to allow for the returning of low to medium
chances for rain and storms through the first half of next week,
beginning possibly as soon as late Sunday night. Activity will
mainly be generated across southern portions of the Texas panhandle
and West-Central Texas each day and propagates south-southeastward
along a surface front and/or cold-pool generated surface outflow
boundaries. While the temperatures will remain above average, the
afternoon highs should off several degrees from the highs will be
expected over the weekend. Overnight lows stay warm and humid.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The primary change was to removed the TEMPO group at AUS as
thunderstorm coverage has been lower to the east. Will continue with
the PROB30 at AUS, SAT, and SSF 12Z-15Z. Otherwise, most of the
forecast remains unchanged. Have added in MVFR ceilings for Wednesday
night at all sites as low level moisture pools over south central
Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  74  96  76 /  40  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  74  94  74 /  40  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  74  96  74 /  40  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            86  72  93  73 /  20   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  79 100  78 /  40   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        86  73  92  74 /  30  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  74  96  74 /  30   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  74  95  74 /  40  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  74  94  75 /  40  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  77  95  76 /  40  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  77  97  77 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Update...05
Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...MMM