Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
588 FXUS64 KEWX 220608 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 108 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably warm late July temperatures and heat indices - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday along and east of I-35, though mainly Coastal Plains && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 108 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 The upper tropospheric trough of the last few days continues to move away north of our area. The Subtropical Ridge builds over most of our area today through Wednesday. Subsidence under the Ridge along with a drying airmass with PWs below seasonal averages keeps rain chances out of the forecast for most areas. However, moisture levels may deepen out west making a few showers and a thunderstorm or two possible over western Val Verde County. In the it must be noted department, occasionally a small number of CAMs, including the RRFS, HRRR, and RAP show a complex of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rains developing along or just west of the Rio Grande this evening due to the passage of a mid level impulse. Then, the steering flow takes them over the Edwards Plateau tonight. Due to the small number of CAMs only occasionally showing this, as well as the drying airmass ahead of the impulse will not include in the forecast. Later forecasts may have to include mention should this become a trend with a larger consensus of the models and ensembles. With increased sunshine, a slight warming trend is indicated, though temperatures remain within a few degrees of late July averages with seasonably elevated heat indices. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 108 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 The Subtropical Ridge continues to build over our area on Thursday shifting any deeper moisture west of our area. The subtle warming trend continues. An upper level low currently over the Bahamas opens into a trough while tracking to the west underneath the Ridge, then over southern Texas this weekend. The passage of this feature brings our next mentionable chances of rain due to increased moisture and forcing. Will maintain POPs for Friday through Sunday mainly near the Coastal Plains due to the better forcing enhanced by the seabreeze there. However, they will spread west to the I-35 corridor with passage of the trough overhead. Currently, the most likely period is on Saturday, though could be anytime from late Friday through Saturday night. The trough exits to our west by next week marking a return to a rain free forecast. Although highs "cool" due to increased cloudiness this weekend, temperatures remain within a few degrees of late July averages with seasonably elevated heat indices. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Few changes were made to the previous forecast. Tweaks with regard to timing of MVFR arrival and duration were made, but otherwise, things are mostly the same as the 00Z TAFs. Winds are expected to weaken with time this evening, then pick back up by mid to late morning Tuesday, generally out of the east-southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 97 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 75 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 93 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 97 78 99 77 / 0 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 96 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 100 76 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...04 Aviation...MMM