288
FXUS64 KEWX 121538
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
938 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

The latest mesoscale guidance indicates a much faster progression of
a cold front through our area, potentially as soon as this evening.
Additionally, the drying baroclinic trough to the west has trended
slower and less eastward progression is expected. This will result
in more stubborn cloud cover mainly over the Coastal Plains and north
of Interstate 10. Accordingly, high temperatures today have been
lowered by about 5-10 degrees north of I-10, with highs in the 60s
depicted for areas with more persistent cloud cover. Winds were also
increased to reflect faster onset of post-frontal winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Key Messages:

-  Light to moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected for areas east of I-35 and coastal plains for the rest of
the overnight hours through the 6 AM CST hour

- Patchy to areas of fog are forecast to develop for the rest of the
overnight period into the 10 AM CST Wednesday time frame (can`t rule
out isolated spots with dense fog for a few hours)

- Mid to late morning clearing and then expanding eastward in the
afternoon to lead to high temperatures into the 70s and 80s

- A strong cold front pushes across the Hill Country late this
afternoon/early evening and over the rest of the local area
throughout the evening and early Thursday morning

- Much cooler overnight period with a light freeze across the Hill
Country and parts of the southern Edwards Plateau

- A cool Thursday awaits with highs in the 40s and 50s

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible across the southern
Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande due to low humidity values and
northwest winds around 10 mph

Light to moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are
forecast to continue affecting areas mainly to the east of Interstate
35 and coastal plains through day-break. Cloud coverage begins to
dissipate mid to late morning out west and then spreading eastward
toward the I-35 corridor in the afternoon. Today`s highs are
forecasted to reach the 70s and 80s.

These warm conditions are short-lived as a strong cold front pushes
over the local area late this afternoon or early evening. Overnight
lows are likely dropping to the lower 30s for a light freeze over
the Hill Country and parts of the southern Edwards Plateau and the
rest of the local area stays in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Expect a cool Thursday with highs in the 40s and 50s. There is a
slight chance for showers across parts of the Rio Grande and areas
to the northeast as far as the San Antonio metro area. If the shower
activity develops is because of the help getting from passing short
wave disturbances from aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Key Messages...

- Unseasonably cool, except unseasonably warm Saturday and Tuesday

- Chances of showers and a storm or two Saturday morning and late
  Tuesday east

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon west

A few spots in the Hill Country may approach freezing early Friday
morning. Then, surface high pressure gradually shifts to the east on
Friday. However, the returning southerly boundary layer flow results
in extensive cloudiness which makes temperatures struggle to warm.
Cannot rule out a few patches of light rain or drizzle due to very
weak isentropic forcing as the day progresses. Fortunately,
temperatures will be well above freezing by that time.

A Pacific front moves across our area early Saturday. Forcing by the
front could bring some showers and possibly a storm or two to areas
east of I-35 in the morning. In its wake, westerly winds result in a
warm up to well above average temperatures. A drier airmass filters
into our area. During the afternoon, humidities fall into the teens
and 20s with winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusty across the Hill
Country, Edwards Plateau, and the Rio Grande Plains. As a result,
elevated fire weather conditions are possible across those areas.

The warm up will be short lived with another Canadian front moving
across our area late Saturday into Saturday night. Cold advection
drops temperatures to well below average again. Freezes are expected
in parts of the Hill Country to along the Escarpment Sunday morning
and most areas Monday morning. Temperatures struggle to warm each
day. Southerly winds return on Monday leading to a warm up to above
average on Tuesday. Then, another Canadian cold front late Tuesday
into Tuesday night dropping temperatures yet again. Of note, just
beyond this forecast period for next Wednesday, there is a potential
for precipitation with temperatures around freezing per the GFS.
However, this is recent development and will wait for model
consistency and consensus before mentioning. Check back for the
latest developments on this potential event.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

LIFR conditions are expected to prevail through 17Z/18Z for area
terminals. One thing to mention is a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms affecting the Hill Country as of 1140Z. It`s going to
be a close call as far as how close the activity passes to the
vicinity of KAUS. Due to low confidence and these fast moving showers
and storms, decided to keep out from KAUS TAF. Afterward, cigs and
vsbys improve to MVFR and VFR for the afternoon and evening periods.
A strong cold front pushes across the area terminals around 01Z/02Z
with northerly winds around 12 to 14 knots and gusts of 20 to 25
knots. Stays breezy all night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  35  47  39 /  30   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  35  48  38 /  30   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  37  50  39 /  20   0  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            62  31  46  36 /   0   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           82  45  58  44 /   0   0  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        61  31  46  37 /  30   0  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             82  40  54  41 /   0   0  20   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  35  48  38 /  20   0  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   65  37  49  39 /  20   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       79  38  51  41 /  20   0  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           80  39  52  42 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Tran
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...Tran