046
FXUS64 KEWX 192334
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
634 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

An upper level ridge continues to reside over the southern plains
this afternoon. The low level pressure field is somewhat ill
defined. The flow, while generally from the southern half of the
compass, is best defined as light and variable over South-Central
Texas. A warm, moist airmass remains in place. Temperatures and
dewpoints are within a couple of degrees of where they were 24 hours
ago. The upper ridge will shift ever so slowly toward the east
during the short term period. Models show the low level flow
becoming better established from the southeast tonight, and that
will continue through Friday night. Subsident flow from the upper
ridge will keep the weather dry through the period. The above normal
temperatures will also continue. Lows both tonight and tomorrow
night will be mostly in the 70s. Some record warm lows will be
possible both nights. High temperatures Friday will be in the 90s.
Record highs are 100 and higher. While we do not have any records in
the forecast, some places could be within a couple of degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper-level ridging will be at it`s strongest and centered over
South Central Texas on Saturday. It should begin to flatten and
weaken somewhat by Sunday afternoon, opening the door for a cold
front to surge southward into the northern Hill Country and southern
Edwards Plateau late Sunday. Our next shot at rain probably won`t
arrive until at least Tuesday as another upper-level trough
approaches from the west. What happens beyond Wednesday is very much
in question. When guidance can get a better grasp on what sort of
tropical activity develops in the western Caribbean and what to do
with the 500mb High as it weakens and slides eastward, it will
determine how the large scale pattern evolves next week. In any
matter, it looks like we should see an end to the above normal
temperatures and replace it with near normal highs by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Sea breeze showers have moved into the VCNTYs of SAT/SSF in the past
couple hours with the partial help of a nearby 700 mb disturbance.
This disturbance should drift west and bring a brief shower closer to
DRT if anything at all; we`ll show no more convection to impact the
TAF sites after 0030Z this evening. Breezy evening winds Wednesday
picked up the amount of low level moisture and cloud cover to set up
several hours of MVFR conditions for most of the area this morning.
Our winds this evening may be slightly lower but with the warm dew
points, we`ll keep with a near persistence pattern in regards to the
onset and departure of the low clouds at each TAF site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  99  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76 100  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            75  97  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80  98  80  97 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  97  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76  97  75  94 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  97  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  98  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           78  99  78  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...18
Aviation...18