Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
852 FXUS64 KEWX 030650 CCA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 150 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal (Level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall tonight northern Hill Country. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 The subtropical ridge is centered to our west this morning resulting in northwesterly flow aloft over TX. The ridge will shift slowly to the east through the short term. Today should stay dry before a shortwave trough in the northwest flow regime moves across the region. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday. Convection may tap into high PW air and produce locally heavy rain over our northern Hill Country counties tonight. WPC has issued a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. Some minor flooding is possible. The shortwave will continue to pass by our CWA during the day Monday and convection is possible from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plains. Rain chances will be highest during the afternoon with the heating of the day. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will linger into the Monday night period. The ridge will build farther east and bring an end to convection for most of the CWA for most of the upcoming work week. There will be some low chances for showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons along the seabreeze. Low level flow will be from the south to southeast through the week. Temperatures will be fairly steady. Highs should be within a couple of degrees of normal during this hottest part of the year. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 145 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 VFR flying conditions prevail overnight through Sunday night with clouds AOA FL040. Cannot rule out patchy early morning BR due to the rains of the last couple of days making soils moist, however chances are too low to mention. A weak pressure gradient makes for VRBL winds of 5 KTs or less overnight into morning. Then, southeasterly winds up to 10 KTs prevail midday through Sunday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 78 96 75 96 / 10 30 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 97 75 95 / 10 30 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 97 74 96 / 10 20 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 75 93 73 93 / 20 30 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 104 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 94 74 94 / 20 30 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 76 101 75 97 / 0 10 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 97 74 96 / 10 30 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 94 74 95 / 10 40 20 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 99 77 97 / 10 20 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 78 102 77 99 / 10 20 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...05 Aviation...04