912
FXUS64 KEWX 310732
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
132 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 127 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Key Messages:

- Some mid 30s lows possible Hill Country, with only an isolated
potential for a light freeze Saturday morning
- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and Saturday
afternoon over the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Rio
Grande Plains

There is enough low level moisture around La Grange to produce some
patchy fog this morning. However, winds just off the surface are
WNW, and this will keep nudging the dew point downward along with
the temperatures. By daybreak, the W to NW winds will be more
uniform over these eastern counties, and the high cloud canopy will
have shifted east. A steady NW wind of 10-15 mph will help set up a
NE to SW temperature gradient for daytime highs with some mid to
upper 70s possible over the SW corner; meanwhile some Hill Country
and Central TX areas could struggle to get out of the 60s.

Surface ridging settles over the area tonight, and the efficient
radiational cooling and low dew points could send a few protected
valleys briefly to the freezing mark. A general light west wind
should keep most exposed areas comfortably above freezing and even
into the low 40s. Light drainage winds could last into the late
morning Saturday, but by midday, winds will turn southerly  for all
areas with the dry air and sunshine allowing for another nice warm-
up into the 70s almost area-wide.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 127 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Key Message:

- Well above normal temperatures are expected Sunday through next
week with dry conditions

A benign weather patten takes hold for much of the extended
forecast. Above normal highs and lows are expected each day with
afternoon temperatures roughly 10 to 20 degrees above normal values
for early February. Southerly flow strengthens on Sunday bringing
back increased moisture to the area through next week. Increased
cloud cover is expected each night with clouds lifting and
dissipating during the day. Clouds will keep lows very mild in the
upper 50s and 60s by mid-week. Besides a few rogue members
indicating very light precipitation in the Tuesday to Wednesday
timeframe, ensemble guidance largely indicates dry conditions so
continued with the dry NBM forecast. A cold front may move across the
area sometime Thursday night or Friday which would bring back cooler
air to the region. A few models bring chances for precipitation with
this feature, but continued with the dry NBM given it`s seven days
away. Guidance is also varied on exactly how cool we could get behind
this front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Overall, no
significant changes have been made for tonight as light southwest to
west winds prevail as high clouds thin. Winds will trend to a more
northwesterly direction tomorrow and we have included gusty
conditions at AUS and DRT. Confidence in gusts was lower at SAT and
SSF and we will not mention in the forecast at this time. Wind will
diminish quickly around 21-22Z as the gradient eases.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Northwest winds should top out at 10 to 15 mph today with RH values
falling into the teens to low 20s. Similar RH values are expected
Saturday afternoon, as return flow southerly winds pick up to 10 to
15 mph late in the day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 127 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

February 3rd Record Highs (Years of Record):

Austin Camp Mabry: 81 (2008, 1911)
Austin Bergstrom: 80 (1976)
San Antonio: 85 (1911)
Del Rio: 89 (1911)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  43  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  36  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  41  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  41  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  41  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  38  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  38  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  39  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  41  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  43  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  42  75  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...27
Aviation...18