954
FXUS64 KEWX 101815
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
115 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Hot and mostly dry summer weather continues this week. Practice
  heat safety and stay cool and hydrated.

- Low chance for isolated afternoon showers over the Coastal
  Plains and I-35 corridor this afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A small inverted trough is moving onshore the Texas Gulf Coast this
afternoon. This should aid this afternoon/evening`s seabreeze in
generating another round of sporadic and isolated showers and a
thunderstorm or two later in the day over the Coastal Plains
westward to the I-35 corridor, as has been the case the past several
days. Most will continue to stay dry, and mild conditions will
continue through the overnight.

Strengthening ridging over the Four Corners region and over the Gulf
will work in concert to reduce the rain chances accompanying the
daily seabreeze during midweek period. A slight weakness in the
500mb heights suggests there could be a small window for some more
seabreeze related action tomorrow afternoon, though the latest high
resolution guidance shows little activity and I don`t have any PoPs
above 10% in the forecast for Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to
be slightly higher Tuesday with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.
Heat indices above 100 will likely be widespread, and a few areas in
the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Rio Grande Plains may briefly
reach the 105-110F range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Hot summer days without much thermal relief overnight will continue
through the work week, so make sure you continue to practice heat
safety and have reliable access to cooling and hydration. Broad
ridging will keep rain chances low. While the ridging is not
especially strong over our area by climatological standards, it is
expected to focus over the Gulf. This will produce southerly to
southwesterly flow aloft, allowing hotter plateau air from Mexico
and West Texas to drift over South Central Texas. This will cause
temperatures to increase midweek, with the hottest days (by ambient
temperature) likely Wednesday and Thursday when the westerly
component to the flow aloft is most apparent. During that stretch,
highs in the 99-103F range are expected to be fairly widespread,
especially over the Rio Grande Plains and I-35 corridor. The surface
flow is still expected to generally southerly, so the Gulf moisture
will lead to higher heat indices. Issuance of a Heat Advisory for
one or more of the days in the mid to late week stretch is possible
based on the expected weather pattern.

A weak tropical wave currently over the central Caribbean is
expected to approach the area on Friday. Thermal ridging will still
be quite intense over Texas, so prospects for rain from that system
remain slim. A reversion of the flow to a more southeasterly
direction might shave a few degrees off ambient temperatures for
Friday, but that would come at the expense of higher dew points.
Thus, heat indices may remain quite high Friday. Hot and mostly dry
weather persists through the weekend into early next week as the
subtropical ridge refocuses from the Gulf to the lower Mississippi
Valley.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Prevailing VFR ceilings with southerly winds to start off the 18z
TAF cycle. Current radar imagery shows an area of convection
slowly moving north-northwestward with time from the coast. This
area of convection is anticipated to spread towards the I-35
terminals between 21z and 01z. KAUS has the highest chance for
being impacted so maintained the inherited TEMPO group. KSAT and
KSSF have slightly lower chances compared to KAUS so kept mention
out of prevailing at this time.

Another round of MVFR ceilings are anticipated for the I-35
terminals starting around 9z Tuesday morning. These ceilings will
quickly mix out by 16z.

KDRT should remain VFR throughout the duration of this TAF cycle
with occasionally gusty winds during the afternoon with peak
mixing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  77 100 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  99  77 100 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  99  76 100 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 100  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  98  76  99 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  98  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  99  76 100 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  97  77  98 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  98  78  99 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...36