855
FXUS64 KEWX 031750
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1250 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall tonight over
  northern Burnet and Llano Counties.

- Increasingly hot and dry weather expected Tuesday-Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Northwesterly flow aloft continues today but without any mid-level
forcing for afternoon convection, the threat for rain and storms is
low (less than 10%). Expect a seasonably hot afternoon with highs in
the upper 90s to lower 100s.

Another chance at showers and storms arrives with a shortwave
disturbance rounding the eastern periphery of the subtropical ridge
to our west. Some morning convection appears possible given the
latest 12Z CAMs, and PoPs were expanded compared to what the NBM
populated. PoPs are expected to linger into the afternoon and evening
hours, with some locally heavy rainfall possible once again,
primarily along and east of I-35. Our area is not outlooked for any
excessive rainfall by WPC and most storms should be more transient in
nature than the convection we`ve seen the last couple days. Storms
may linger through late Monday evening before weakening after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For the most part, the long term period looks hot and dry with the
exception being over the Coastal Plains, where seabreeze showers and
storms are possible, particularly on Tuesday when the ridge hasn`t
gotten a firm hold of our region yet. By Wednesday and beyond, hot
and dry conditions are expected with just a few showers possible over
southern Lavaca and DeWitt counties each afternoon. Highs will climb
into the upper 90s to around 100 each day, with mornings in the 70s.
There are some signs that the ridge may break down and push back west
by the weekend, opening the door for north to northwest flow again,
but there is some disagreement among medium range guidance on this
solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of today as winds
generally remain from the south and southeast. We will continue to
monitor an outflow boundary moving southward into central Texas for
some possible isolated convection this afternoon. However, with low
confidence, we will not include any mention of SHRA or TSRA today.
Overnight, some low cloud development is possible, especially as we
head toward sunrise. For now, we will only mention SCT low clouds at
AUS, with TEMPO MVFR cigs at SAT and SSF between 11 and 15Z. We will
not mention any low clouds in the forecast at DRT. We did opt to add
a PROB30 for TSRA at AUS Monday afternoon given the most recent
round of hi-res guidance. 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  98  76  97 /  10  30  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  97  74  96 /  10  30  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  97  74  96 /   0  20  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  95  73  94 /  10  30  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 103  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  96  74  94 /  10  30  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75 100  74  98 /   0  10  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  98  74  96 /  10  20  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  95  74  96 /  10  40  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  99  77  97 /   0  20  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77 101  77  99 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Platt