455
FXUS64 KEWX 190631
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
131 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active storm track with multiple chances for showers/storms
  expected from today through early next week

- Potential for isolated flash flooding from slow moving storms
  Wednesday through at least Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

An upper-level ridge continues to retrograde westward over the
four-corners region this morning allowing our area to remain on
the backside or eastern periphery of this ridge. What that
means for us is that we could see multiple disturbances across
our area and especially as the ridge continues moving further
west allowing us to feel less and less of its impact and
allowing disturbances to ride the periphery and eventually
impact our area. One of those disturbances is already
approaching our area from the east as noted on IR imagery this
AM. This looks to be the likely focus for our next shot of rain
and thunderstorms for today as PWATs remain in the 1.5-2 inch
range making any storms very efficient rainfall producers. We
likely wont see storms until the early to late afternoon hours
in accordance with the combination of daytime heating and our
typical seabreeze. Most HiRes guidance is depicting storms
firing along the coastal plains and spreading westward with time
across the I-35 Corridor and perhaps making it into the Hill
Country. After sunset we expect these storms to diminish in
coverage due to the loss of heating.

For Wednesday expect a similar scenario to play out with storms
once again firing in the early to late afternoon hours due to
peak daytime heating, troughiness and our typical seabreeze
with the main risks being locally heavy rainfall and strong
gusty winds. As such WPC has maintained our area in a marginal
risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall as any storms could
produce isolated instances of flash flooding due to the slow
storm motion and heavy rainfall rates.

Temperatures for both days remain seasonable for mid August with
highs upper 90s to low 100s and lows in the 70s however, heat
indices remain elevated with values staying just below or
briefly touching advisory criteria (108 degrees). Because of
this and the fact we are in our climatologically hottest part of
the year here many are already acclimated to this type of heat.
Will hold off on any advisories but please continue to practice
heat safety tips.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

We remain entrenched in a very active weather pattern with
strong upper-level ridging remaining over the four corners
region to our west and strong upper level troughing to our east
resulting in the continued chances for disturbance and surface
boundaries to make there way down into our area where we are
situated in the weakness between both areas. With PWATs remaining
high the potential for isolated flooding continues as WPC has
almost the entire area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall through Thursday. With weak steering currents
and the possibility that a weak cold front may get hung up
somewhere over our area this seems reasonable. Along with
multiple days of potential rain, minor flooding could become an
issue.

Most global models agree that a front will come through the
question remains just how far south before it stalls. It is too
soon to discuss rainfall totals as a lot depends on where this
front and its subsequent outflow boundaries end up over the long
term with any showers and thunderstorms firing off of this
front. Regardless we look to remain in a very active period with
repeated chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over
the area. Due to the increased cloud cover and rain chances,
temperatures look to drop somewhat over the long term with
highs remaining in the low to mid 90s and lows in the 70s.


&&

.AVIATION (05Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

VFR conditions generally prevail through the TAF period with the
exception of any reductions in afternoon and evening convective
activity. Convective allowing models are indicating isolated to
widely scattered SHRA/TSRA activity in the afternoon and early
evening, gradually ending after sunset Tuesday. A PROB30 TSRA group
has been included at TAF sites to account for this potential. Some
wind gusts in excess of 30KT are possible in and near TSRA activity.
Otherwise, scattered cirrus moving through the area tonight with
scattered cumulus field developing in the afternoon.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 100  77  96 /  20  40  40  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76 100  77  96 /  20  40  40  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74 100  74  96 /  20  40  40  70
Burnet Muni Airport            75  96  74  94 /  10  50  40  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 101  79  98 /  30  30  30  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        76 100  76  96 /  20  50  40  60
Hondo Muni Airport             74 100  75  96 /  30  30  30  60
San Marcos Muni Airport        74 100  75  96 /  20  40  40  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  98  76  94 /  20  50  40  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       76 100  77  96 /  30  40  40  70
Stinson Muni Airport           76 101  77  97 /  30  40  40  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...CJM
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...76