597
FXUS64 KEWX 011824
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
124 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.Key Messages...

- Locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon/early evening
  across parts of the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau,
  and Rio Grande Plains

- Localized heavy rain possible across the Rio Grande on Wednesday
  and Thursday

- Summerlike pattern with low chances of showers and storms Friday
  into the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Abundant tropical moisture continues to arrive across the local area
for the rest of today into this evening. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to affect a good
portion of south central Texas especially areas along and west
Highway 281 (western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio
Grande Plains). Some of these showers and storms could produce heavy
downpours leading into localized flooding and due to that, WPC Day
One ERO highlights the above mentioned areas under a marginal (1 of
4 risk of excessive rainfall) category. In addition, wind gusts of 30
to 40 mph and up to 50 mph are likely such as in the past few
afternoons. The northern Hill Country including the Austin metro and
areas along and east of Highway 183 should stay dry for the most
part with a passing shower or two late afternoon. The dry airmass
over these locations come from a Saharan Air Layer that it is in
place for the next day or so.

By mid to late evening, the shower and thunderstorm activity across
the Rio Grande and nearby locations are expected to diminish with
the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows are forecast to range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

A similar weather pattern of today is forecast for Wednesday with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting mainly the
Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau in the morning with numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Some of
these showers and storms could produce heavy rains that could
potentially lead to localized flooding. Areas along and east of
Highway 183 should stay mostly dry with low chances for rain.
Wednesday`s highs are forecast to range from the upper 70s across
the southern Edwards Plateau to the lower to mid 90s along the I-35
corridor and coastal plains areas.

Continued showery with isolated thunderstorms along the Rio Grande
on Wednesday evening, however, the activity should be less with dry
breaks during the late evening and overnight periods. Lows remain in
the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For Thursday, the local area stays cloudy with highs in the lower
80S to lower 90s. A very moist airmass with pwats values over 2
inches is forecast to move across the local area from the Gulf
waters. This translates into slight to chances for rain across south
central Texas especially over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande. Some of storms could produce heavy rains at times leading to
minor and localized flooding across low lying and poor drainage
areas.

Drier air arrives on Friday into the weekend with a warming trend in
store for Saturday and Sunday. Lingering moisture likely helps for
isolated to scattered showers and a storm or two across the Rio
Grande on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, expect dry weather for the
upcoming holiday weekend. No expecting to issue any heat related
products for the holiday weekend, however, stay hydrated and taking
breaks from the heat as elevated heat index values of 100 to 107 are
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Showers continue along the Rio Grande plains and with afternoon
heating, we expect to see thunderstorms develop across the mentioned
region. We will keep a TEMPO group for TSRA in the forecast at DRT
between 20-24Z. Elsewhere, some brief MVFR cigs will occur at SAT
and SSF for another hour, then lift to VFR. We kept the mention of
precipitation out of the forecast for this afternoon at both SAT and
SSF as coverage of showers and storms should be more isolated in
nature. Concerns for low clouds will return this evening and
overnight, with IFR expected at DRT. We did opt to add a mention of
a TEMPO group for MVFR at both SAT and SSF tomorrow morning. More
scattered convection is anticipated on Wednesday, with impacts
possible mainly between the DRT and SAT/SSF terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  96  75  94 /  10  20  10  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  94  74  94 /   0  20  10  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  91  74  91 /  10  30  10  30
Burnet Muni Airport            72  91  73  90 /  10  20  10  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  86  75  89 /  60  60  60  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  94  74  93 /  10  10  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             72  84  73  86 /  40  40  30  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  91  73  92 /  10  30  10  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  94  74  94 /   0  10   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  89  75  89 /  20  30  20  30
Stinson Muni Airport           74  90  75  91 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...17
Aviation...Platt