133
FXUS64 KEWX 231139
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
539 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 116 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Key Messages:

- Drizzle, light showers and areas of fog linger through this morning.

- Potential for dense fog along and east of I-35 early Monday morning.

Overcast skies reside over the majority of South Central Texas early
this morning with areas of drizzle, light showers and patchy fog
mainly along and east of I-35. Clear skies in the far western CWA
may allow for a brief period of dense fog early this morning, mainly
over Val Verde and Edwards Counties. A passing mid-level trough will
quickly shunt the last of these light showers east with dry
conditions likely around sunrise. Low clouds and a few areas of
patchy fog may linger into mid-morning before drier air moves into
the region eroding clouds from west to east through the day.

Warmer temperatures are expected today with highs in the 70s west
and the 60s and upper 50s east. Clear skies and light wind tonight
into Monday morning will allow for areas of fog to develop,
potentially dense, mainly along and east of I-35. Benign weather is
expected Monday with even warmer temperatures across the area in the
70s to low 80s due to the return of southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 116 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Key Messages:

- Elevated fire weather concerns across the western Hill Country, southern
  Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains through Friday.

- Mostly warm and dry weather throughout next week.

- Briefly cooler temperatures Thursday behind a weak cold front.

A warm subtropical airmass is expected to remain settled over the
state for the early part of next week with west-northwesterly flow
aloft. Fog and low stratus are possible mainly over the Coastal
Plains Monday night into Tuesday morning with light winds allowing
temperatures to meet dew points in the mid-40s. The predominantly
dry air aloft should allow clouds to mix out with highs in the mid-
70s over the Coastal Plains to mid-80s in the Rio Grande Plains,
potentially making Tuesday the warmest day next week.

Coastal moisture return is expected to increase a little more
Wednesday in response to an intensifying jet streak, resulting in
lows Wednesday morning bottoming out a notch higher in the 50s. This
may aid in producing more widespread advection fog, with more than
50 to 80 percent of SREF members showing less than 1-mile
visibilities across the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor during the
morning. Highs Wednesday look quite similar to Tuesday, though high
clouds may lessen highs by a degree or two. Models have come into
slightly better agreement in showing a weak cold front moving across
our region Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The ECMWF
continues to show some light rain behind the front, but given the
unfavorable northeasterly winds above the frontal surface and skinny
moist return axis preceding the front, the forecast continues to
call for a dry frontal passage.

More seasonable conditions will briefly permeate throughout the
region in the wake of the front, with lows Thursday morning in the
upper 40s over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau and highs
regionwide ranging from the upper-60s to mid-70s. This brief
seasonable window does not look to last long as southerly flow
reestablishes Friday with highs back in the mid to upper 70s. This
warmth looks to continue into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Precipitation has moved east of all terminals with MVFR to LIFR
ceilings and visibility remaining across South Central Texas for the
start of the period. Skies and patchy fog will clear first at DRT
with I-35 terminals seeing VFR conditions by 18Z. Clear skies will
remain through the evening and at DRT through the period. Models
indicate fog development generally along and east of I-35 early
Monday morning, though there are uncertainties in how far west it
forms and how low visibility drops. The highest confidence for fog
is at AUS with only BR at SAT/SSF for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              63  41  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  39  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  40  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            65  40  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  41  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  39  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             70  39  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  39  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   59  39  70  44 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       66  42  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           66  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...Tran
Aviation...27