Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
996 FXUS64 KEWX 020546 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm days and mild nights continue through the middle of next week. - Low chances (15-30%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday through next week, mainly over the Coastal Plains. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A mid level ridge from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and a mid level low over the central and eastern Gulf persist today into Friday. Seasonal PWs of 0.9 to 1.2 inches over our area and subsidence will inhibit rain chances today. However, mainly the HRRR shows a few showers. Subtle changes in the mid levels are indicated for Friday. The southern Plains portion of the ridge lifts a little to the north while the low drifts a little to the west. This allows an area of above average PWs of 1.2 to 1.5 inches currently over the lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast to move west to over our area. Subsidence weakens and with heating, isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible along and east of the US 281 corridor Friday afternoon as noted in all Hi-Res models. Will go above NBM guidance with 10-20 POPs. Temperatures remain well above early October averages with lows warming a little. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 This weekend, mid level troughing moves over the western states and northern Plains shoving the ridge to over mid Atlantic region and drawing the low to over the western Gulf. Some drying will keep rain out of the forecast, except for slight chances each afternoon with heating and the seabreeze near the Coastal Plains where the deeper moisture lingers. Early to middle of next week, western troughing lifts north absorbing the Gulf low and allowing the ridge to expand back to the west to over the Plains. This allows deeper moisture to flow over our area with slight chances of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm over most areas. Temperatures remain well above early October averages. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Clear skies overnight and Thursday morning, with a scattered cumulus field developing in the afternoon across portions of the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Hill Country. There is a very low chance (10% or less) of isolated SHRA activity within this cumulus field 20Z-01Z. Coverage and confidence is too low to include in the SAT/SSF/AUS TAFs. Variable winds around or less than 5 KT for most locations overnight and Thursday morning, becoming E to SE around 4-8KT in the afternoon across the Rio Grande, I-35 corridor near SAT, and Coastal Plains and E to NE across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor near AUS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Fuels are forecast to be dry to critically dry across most of South Central Texas. With minimum relative humidities of 20 to 30 percent at least through Friday, locally elevated fire weather conditions may be seen each afternoon. East to southeast surface winds will generally be less than 10 mph limiting critical or near-critical fire weather conditions. Minimum humidities will recover to above 30 percent most areas this weekend into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 96 70 93 68 / 0 0 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 67 93 66 / 0 0 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 95 67 93 65 / 0 0 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 93 66 89 66 / 0 0 20 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 70 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 94 67 91 65 / 0 0 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 95 67 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 96 67 94 65 / 0 0 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 95 68 92 66 / 0 0 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 95 70 93 69 / 0 0 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 96 71 95 70 / 0 0 20 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...76