885
FXUS64 KEWX 201050
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
550 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Infrared satellite imagery and model analyses place the center of a
diffuse mid-level circulation just north of our area as of early
Sunday morning. With a large subtropical ridge and weak steering
currents dominating the regional environment, this feature is
forecast to linger through Sunday north of the Austin area. Like
Saturday, an expanse of mid-level cloud cover associated with this
feature is expected across South-Central Texas, with slightly
thicker cirrus cover aloft courtesy of an upper-level inverted
trough arriving over the Gulf. Dry mid to low-level air will limit
rainfall, but there could be a stray shower mainly in the vicinity
of the low-level circulation mainly north of US-290. In these sorts
of setups, can`t rule out a shower or two letting off a few cracks
of thunder as they encounter enhanced mid-level lift, but overall
rain accumulations will likely be light... ranging from a trace to a
few hundredths of an inch... due to the drier air in the subcloud
layer. With the additional cloud cover, tempered highs are forecast
today, mainly in the low to mid 90s to the north and a mix of mid to
upper 90s along and south of I-10.

The mid-level cloud deck erodes Monday as the passing disturbance
weakens, easing back into a pattern of morning low clouds and mostly
sunny afternoons. Expect an increase in daytime highs Monday into
the upper 90s and near or just over 100 along the Rio Grande as
skies clear. In the more humid areas along the I-35 corridor and
Coastal Plains, elevated heat index values of 100 to 107 are
possible with isolated spots getting into the 108 to 109 range for a
few hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Subtropical ridging centered over the Mississippi Valley during the
work week will keep conditions dry and quiet over South-Central
Texas. Our region looks to mostly stay on the western side of the
ridge, so daily high temperatures look to settle within seasonable
ranges with low to mid 90s in the Hill Country, mid to upper 90s in
the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor, and upper 90s to around 100
along the Rio Grande. Heat indices remain elevated during the week,
with peak values of 100 to 107 and localized peaks of 108 to 109
possible each day. Some storm activity associated with a trough over
West Texas could spill into western Val Verde County late afternoon
into the evening Tuesday, but chances are low (around 15 percent).

The latest solutions from medium-range guidance continue to suggest
that a tropical disturbance may move across the northern Gulf later
in the week in a manner not too different from this weekend`s
system. The current blend of ensemble guidance indicates that this
disturbance could bring a chance for some isolated to scattered
showers and storms across the Coastal Plains and possibly extending
to the I-35 corridor Friday and Saturday. The disturbance itself has
not yet developed, so for now only low chances for rain are
advertised.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

MVFR CIGs are patchy early this morning and have replaced prevailing
at the I-35 sites with TEMPOs through 14Z-15Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevail today through this evening. There are slightly
higher chances for MVFR CIGs overnight into Monday morning and have
maintained the prevailing already mentioned. Radar show patchy --RA.
However, expect no impacts to the sites as PROBs are low as much of
it is VIRGA and not reaching the surface. Thus, have no mention. S to
SE winds prevail with gustiness later this morning through this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              94  77  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  77  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            91  74  94  73 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  78  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  75  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  75  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  76  95  75 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  77 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Tran
Long-Term...Tran
Aviation...04