116
FXUS64 KEWX 050527 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1227 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

An upper level low is located over northern Mexico this afternoon
expected to remain in this general vicinity through tomorrow. This
feature combined with a surface low moving from the Gulf towards the
southern Texas will bring some low chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the coastal plains later today through Saturday. Hi-
res guidance mainly favors Karnes, DeWitt and Lavaca Counties for
any rain potential this evening, but some isolated activity may make
it further inland. Overnight, could see some additional activity in
the far southern counties all the way towards the Rio Grande as the
disturbance in the Gulf continues west, but have capped PoPs at 20
percent during this time. Chances for rain have decreased again for
Saturday afternoon with the "best" potential along the coast or
south of the area; however, the coastal plains may once again see
some isolated activity. The gist is the vast majority of the area
will remain dry through tomorrow with a few lucky spots possibly
seeing some isolated activity.

Breezy conditions will die down after sunset with lows ranging from
the upper 50s in portions of the Hill Country and southern Edwards
Plateau to around 70 degrees in the southern reaches of the CWA.
Temperatures jump back into the upper 80s to mid 90s tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

A quiet and dry weather pattern prevails through the long term
period across South-Central Texas as the higher moisture levels
along the Texas gulf coast shifts eastward with development of a
possible surface low. This surface low moves eastward and could
approach portions of the Florida peninsula by midweek. For our
region, a weak cold front will try to backdoor through sometime
early next week as surface high pressure re-positions from the
northern plains into portions of the Ohio Valley. The front will
help to reinforce even drier air and result in slightly cooler
morning lows with progression through mid to late week. The
afternoon highs will remain mild from the upper 80s in the Hill
Country to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Most of the period will
trend mostly to completely clear with light to modest east to
northeasterly breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Not much change from the last few nights of forecasts. Expect VFR
ceilings, along with light winds at less than 10 kts, generally out
of the east/east-northeast. There is an outside shot at some MVFR
CIGs with the increased surface moisture in play, but that chance
looks rather low, and a FEW010 layer has been left in place for AUS,
SAT, and SSF to account for this uncertainty from 08Z-15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              94  71  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  69  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  70  96  68 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            91  68  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           94  72  95  72 /  10   0  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        92  69  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             92  68  94  68 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  67  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  68  93  65 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  72  95  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...MMM