Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
685 FXUS64 KEWX 070606 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 106 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons 15%-25% chance for showers. - Temperatures more like the first week of September than the first week of October. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 An upper level ridge extends from a high off the east coast to TX tonight with west-southwesterly flow at 500mb. Surface high pressure to the east is producing light southeasterly winds across our CWA. The airmass has moistened over the last 24 hours and dewpoints range from the upper 50s to the upper 60s. Temperatures are still warm in the 70s and 80s. There is a cold front moving down through the Texas Panhandle tonight. Today the low level flow will become better established from the southeast and bring moister air into the region. The weak frontal boundary will move through Central Texas during the day reaching the northern part of our CWA by this evening. This combination of factors will mean 15% to 25% chance for showers or thunderstorms over the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau. The forcing with this boundary looks pretty weak and most places will not see any rain. Temperatures over the Coastal Plains may be a couple of degrees warmer with the southeasterly flow, and the approaching front from the north may keep highs a couple of degrees cooler across the northern counties. The front will stall tonight and dissipate overnight and early Wednesday. As this happens moist air will surge up the Rio Grande. Daytime heating may produce enough lift to generate showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Rio Grande during the day Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 By Thursday the frontal boundary will have dissipated and the upper ridge will regain dominance over Texas. Dry weather will return for the remainder of the long term period. Temperatures will continue to be above normal. Highs will remain in the upper 80s and lower 90s through the end of the period. Some drier air will move in late week and allow for cooler mornings Friday through Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 VFR flight conditions will start off the period with the latest satellite imagery showing pockets of some mid and high level clouds across the region. Low clouds start to establish during late overnight into this morning for locations primarily to the east of I-35 and along/south of US highway 90. The latest REFS probabilities show 30 to 60 percent chance of MVFR conditions during a point this morning at SAT/SSF/DRT. These sites will include a TEMPO for MVFR for a portion of the morning. AUS will remain VFR through the period as probabilities are lower over this site. This afternoon will also feature isolated to widely scattered showers in the region. However, confidence is too low to add into the TAFs for now. Expect for mainly VFR conditions to continue into and through early Wednesday morning. Expect light winds from the east to northeast at 10 mph or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 93 71 92 70 / 20 10 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 94 70 92 69 / 20 10 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 69 92 68 / 20 20 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 68 87 67 / 20 10 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 92 73 91 73 / 20 20 30 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 70 91 68 / 10 10 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 92 70 92 69 / 20 20 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 94 69 93 68 / 20 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 70 93 68 / 10 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 72 91 72 / 20 20 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 94 73 93 73 / 20 20 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...62