876
FXUS64 KEWX 230457
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1057 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 116 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge extending from the
Gulf of California to the northern plains and northwesterly flow
over Texas. A frontal boundary has stalled across the eastern part
of our CWA is dissipating. This has disrupted the pressure field and
winds over our eastern counties are light and variable while out
west they have become southeasterly. The airmass over our CWA has
warmed and moistened over the last 24 hours with temperatures 5-10
degrees higher and dewpoints 10 to 20 degrees higher. The upper
ridge will flatten over the short term period with the flow becoming
close to zonal. High pressure over the southern plains will push
down over Texas and our low level flow will become southerly to
southeasterly tonight and this will continue Saturday and Saturday
night. This will keep our weather dry. Temperatures will continue to
trend warmer. Lows tonight will be 5-8 degrees warmer than this
morning and lows Sunday morning will be another 10 degrees higher.
High temperatures Saturday will only be a few degrees warmer than
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 116 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Unfortunately, no precipitation is on the horizon for South Central
Texas. However, a series of fronts will make way for some cooler
temperatures, most notably late next week around the Thanksgiving
holiday.

Highs Sunday and Monday will be hot for late November, with some
chances for record breaking daily high temperatures. A front begins
to move across the area sometime late Monday afternoon or Monday
night which will bring back the return of highs in the upper 60s and
70s on Tuesday. While upper level flow will be fairly zonal for the
first half of the week, broad troughing aloft and the formation of a
surface front will be seen Wednesday. Moderate southerly flow
returns early Wednesday aiding a quick warm up mid-week before this
stronger front moves across the area sometime late Wednesday or
Thursday. While the NBM did trend down with highs late week, still
nudged them down a touch based on GEFS/ECMWF ensemble guidance. The
current forecast projects cooler highs from the mid 60s to mid 70s
and breezy northerly wind for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions tonight and Saturday. SE wind around 5 KT overnight
along the Rio Grande, calm to variable less than 5 KT elsewhere.
A SE wind around 8-12 KT is forecast to develop areawide Saturday
afternoon, with some gusts 20-25 KT expected along the Rio Grande at
DRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              46  77  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  40  78  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     44  80  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            45  75  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           50  79  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        42  76  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             44  78  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        41  78  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   42  78  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       48  78  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           48  79  59  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...27
Aviation...76