Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
243 FXUS64 KEWX 110520 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1220 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 - Low rain chances today over the coastal plains, Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and portions of the I-35 corridor. - Temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period, with continued concerns for maximum temperatures and peak heat index values near Heat Advisory levels this weekend. - Most areas remain dry into next week, except for some low rain chances over the coastal plains. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 A weak, mid-level low will persist across the northwestern Gulf today, with northwest to north flow aloft over south central Texas. A weak disturbance embedded in the northwest flow aloft will move out of west central Texas into portions of central Texas today. Most of the hi-res models show potential for some convection today from the Hill Country into portions of the I-35 corridor near Austin, then southeastward toward the coastal plains. We will keep rain chances low, generally around 20%, with the late afternoon and evening hours favored for convection. On Saturday, mid and upper level high pressure builds in from the west, forcing the low pressure in the northwestern Gulf southward. Subsidence should limit the chance for convection on Saturday and we will keep the forecast dry for all areas at this time. Temperatures on Friday will be similar to today, with highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Peak heat index values today may briefly reach 108 degrees over the coastal plains this afternoon. We should see an upward trend in high temperatures on Saturday as the low- level thermal ridge sharpens in response to an increase in mid and upper level high pressure to our north. At this time, current trends suggest we may need a Heat Advisory for areas generally along and east of I-35 on Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 For early next week, mid and upper level high pressure will initially be centered over the southern Great Plains. The center of this high pressure will move eastward with time and eventually settle over the Smoky Mountain region of Tennessee. This area of high pressure will continue to strengthen into the middle to late portion of the upcoming week, resulting in high pressure gradually building in from the east. This is expected to keep our forecast mostly dry along with above normal temperatures. Some late afternoon convection may be possible over the coastal plains region as the seabreeze moves inland. Any rain chances would likely remain low. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Some high debris clouds from North TX convection will spill south across the area tonight. Finer res models call for a few low clouds, but will stick to a plan of keeping just some scattered clouds at 1500-2000 ft AGL and upgrade to BKN as we see pockets of low clouds get picked up by the Nighttime Microphysics satellite product. The nightly early evening convection should remain mainly to the north or east of the TAF sites again, so will keep the convection out of the TAFs. On winds we`ll follow the diurnal trends to catch the sea-breeze changes/SE directions and return to lighter, more due south winds late at night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 102 77 100 / 20 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 101 76 100 / 20 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 101 75 99 / 10 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 75 99 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 104 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 101 76 100 / 20 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 75 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 101 75 99 / 20 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 100 77 99 / 20 0 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 100 77 99 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 102 76 100 / 10 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Platt LONG TERM....Platt AVIATION...18