Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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876 FXUS64 KEWX 230457 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1057 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 116 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge extending from the Gulf of California to the northern plains and northwesterly flow over Texas. A frontal boundary has stalled across the eastern part of our CWA is dissipating. This has disrupted the pressure field and winds over our eastern counties are light and variable while out west they have become southeasterly. The airmass over our CWA has warmed and moistened over the last 24 hours with temperatures 5-10 degrees higher and dewpoints 10 to 20 degrees higher. The upper ridge will flatten over the short term period with the flow becoming close to zonal. High pressure over the southern plains will push down over Texas and our low level flow will become southerly to southeasterly tonight and this will continue Saturday and Saturday night. This will keep our weather dry. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer. Lows tonight will be 5-8 degrees warmer than this morning and lows Sunday morning will be another 10 degrees higher. High temperatures Saturday will only be a few degrees warmer than today. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 116 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Unfortunately, no precipitation is on the horizon for South Central Texas. However, a series of fronts will make way for some cooler temperatures, most notably late next week around the Thanksgiving holiday. Highs Sunday and Monday will be hot for late November, with some chances for record breaking daily high temperatures. A front begins to move across the area sometime late Monday afternoon or Monday night which will bring back the return of highs in the upper 60s and 70s on Tuesday. While upper level flow will be fairly zonal for the first half of the week, broad troughing aloft and the formation of a surface front will be seen Wednesday. Moderate southerly flow returns early Wednesday aiding a quick warm up mid-week before this stronger front moves across the area sometime late Wednesday or Thursday. While the NBM did trend down with highs late week, still nudged them down a touch based on GEFS/ECMWF ensemble guidance. The current forecast projects cooler highs from the mid 60s to mid 70s and breezy northerly wind for Thanksgiving Day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions tonight and Saturday. SE wind around 5 KT overnight along the Rio Grande, calm to variable less than 5 KT elsewhere. A SE wind around 8-12 KT is forecast to develop areawide Saturday afternoon, with some gusts 20-25 KT expected along the Rio Grande at DRT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 46 77 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 40 78 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 44 80 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 45 75 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 50 79 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 42 76 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 44 78 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 41 78 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 42 78 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 48 78 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 48 79 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...27 Aviation...76