335
FXUS64 KEWX 181138
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
638 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Models had been signaling today as the best rain potential day in
the week conveyor belt of moisture feeding into the deepening trough
over the SW CONUS. What`s left is 10-20 percent rain chances over
just the western counties with less afterwards. The conveyor belt
and clouds looks to hold near steady over our west counties while
the developing upper low to the west ejects quickly north. This
leaves the I-35 Corridor and areas east drier, and this is shown in
a warming trend with MOS guidance high temperatures. The warming
trend for tonight will be even more robust after the peak impacts of
the polar trough on today`s gusty surface winds surge higher dew
points inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

An upper level low lingering near the Four Corners and a fairly
moist southeasterly lower level flow Saturday night into Sunday may
generate a few showers mainly over Val Verde County, however amounts
will be very light. The upper level low opens up and moves out over
the Central Plains while an upper level ridge builds over Southern
Texas on Monday, then farther northwest on Tuesday through Thursday.
Under the ridging aloft, rain is not expected. Temperatures warm to
around 10 degrees above average on southeasterly lower level flow
next week. The moist lower level airmass and rather light winds will
help to keep fire weather concerns to a minimum as fuel dryness
lessens somewhat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

A weak disturbance is seen on satellite moving NE across the Rio
Grande Valley this morning, but only weak echoes are getting
generated for radar. The moisture influx to the western counties
continues to be minimized by an alongshore backing wind over the
Coastal Prairies early this morning. MOS guidances suggest a
persistent 20 percent PoP for DRT over the next day, but given what
we`ve seen so far, a Prob30 group for rain is yet to be warranted.
The weak shortwave does seem to be trending toward the increased
clouds spreading east into I-35, so the corridor TAFs will show some
more cumulus decks at VFR levels today. Later tonight, the CIGs
could drop to MVFR at DRT by midnight and to SAT/SSF by 09Z. Will
stick with MOS values and keep the lower CIGs out of AUS for Saturday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              59  85  58  87 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  56  85  57  87 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     61  86  61  88 /  10  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            58  81  58  83 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           68  83  68  84 /  20  20  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        55  83  56  84 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             63  84  62  84 /  10  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        58  83  57  86 /  10  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   57  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  83  63  85 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           64  85  64  87 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...04
Aviation...18