901
FXUS64 KEWX 080005 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
705 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Key Message:

- Hot and humid conditions today and Sunday which may result in a
  Heat Advisory for parts of South Central Texas Sunday afternoon.

Clouds continue to scatter this afternoon as temperatures rise into
the 90s for all except the Rio Grande Plains where highs will range
from 100 to 106 degrees. Persistent southerly flow continues to keep
moisture in the low levels allowing heat index values to rise into
triple digits for the majority of the area. Sunday will be a few
degrees warmer bringing us closer to Heat Advisory criteria for
portions of South Central Texas, though locations reaching this
criteria look spotty at this time. Therefore, have held off on
issuing a Heat Advisory. Lows tonight and again Sunday night will
also be warm in the 70s providing little relief to the hot days.
Make sure to continue to practice heat safety! The subtropical ridge
bringing us this hot and dry weather shifts slightly west on Sunday.
Sunday night, a complex of storms may skim just east/northeast of
the CWA, but with low confidence have continued the dry forecast in
the northeastern portions of our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Key Messages:

- High heat continues through Monday.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Friday with
  heavy rain possible.

The weekend`s subtropical ridge is expected to have diminished and
shifted southwest away from our area. This will leave some room for
overnight convective activity from a baroclinic zone to our
northwest to possibly send some outflow boundaries our way to
provide some brief and marginal relief from the heat, mainly for the
Hill Country. Despite a weakened thermal ridge, high temperatures
should still climb into the upper 90s to low 100s, with a moist
southerly flow boosting heat index values to the 105 to 110 degree
range for areas outside of the Hill Country. Heat Advisory criteria
may be met Monday in the Winter Garden area and Coastal Plains.

As the influence of the ridge continues to recede, the weather
pattern becomes more active through the work week. The combination
of shortwave disturbances traversing the region and convective
boundaries interacting with our moist Gulf airmass will set up
chances for rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Monday night
through Friday. The main corridor of activity will mainly be to our
north, but the placement of lift and winds aloft should favor rain
chances extending into our area. The highest rain chances continue
to favor the Tuesday night through Thursday period in association
with a stronger shortwave trough. It is still too early to give a
more precise indication of the type of storm activity and rainfall
amounts, but precipitation and wind fields from medium range
guidance hint that a few larger thunderstorm clusters could
materialize during this period. Moderate instability within the Gulf
airmass indicates potential for at least isolated strong to severe
storms. The steady influx of moisture, somewhat stationary
baroclinic zone, and the likelihood of moisture pooling along
residual outflow boundaries within a moist airmass indicate the
potential for locally heavy rain, with PWATs potentially nearing 2
inches at times. Repeated storms over the same areas on top of
recent rains could support an increased flood threat. The WPC has
highlighted up to a level 2 of 4 risk for flash flooding on
Wednesday and Thursday for portions of our area given these factors.

Cloud cover and occasional rains are expected to moderate
temperatures closer to average with highs generally in the low to
mid 90s for most. Humid conditions are expected to persist as
southerly flow maintains moist air.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions will continue this evening before low clouds develop
once again during the early morning hours on Sunday. We will keep
MVFR in the forecast for the I-35 sites, but have opted to show a
little earlier onset based on recent data. For now, we kept the
forecast VFR at DRT, but did mention SCT low clouds developing around
sunrise. Low clouds will mix out mid to late morning leading to a
return of VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 100  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  99  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  99  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  97  73  94 /   0   0  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 104  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  98  74  95 /   0   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  99  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  97  77  95 /   0   0  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       77 100  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77 101  78 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...17
Aviation...Platt