Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
656 FXUS64 KEWX 012342 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 642 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible today and again on Saturday. - Temperatures remain near seasonal levels for early August. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 A 500mb ridge remains centered over the border of southern Arizona/New Mexico and northern Mexico early this afternoon. Around this high, a mid-level shortwave will slide south along with a weak surface frontal boundary acting as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Latest visible satellite imagery does show some patchy cumulus starting to bubble up over the Hill Country. This should result in showers and storms developing by mid-afternoon, sliding west-southwest in conjunction with mid-level steering flow out of the east-northeast. WPC has placed the Hill Country and northern I-35 Corridor in a Marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today, followed by similar locations, including the Coastal Plains on Saturday. At this point, the setup for Saturday looks more impressive than the one for today, with increased moisture noted throughout the atmosphere for Saturday on model forecast soundings. The 12Z HREF has been rather bullish on heavy rainfall probabilities for Saturday afternoon with a few spots possibly picking up a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall. Despite the increased rain chances, the flash flooding risk looks to be low at this time. The HREF grand ensemble does show a 50-70% chance within a 25 mile radius for greater than 1 inch of rainfall over the 24 hour period ending Saturday evening, so there is the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Besides the rain, the other thing to mention is the heat. Hot and humid conditions are expected both today and Saturday, with heat indices approaching the 100-107 range, close to heat advisory criteria for all but the Rio Grande Plains. Despite the fact that this kind of heat is more typical for late July and early August, our typically hottest stretch of the year, climatologically is the first and second week of August. It`s important to practice heat safety and take proper precautions if you plan to spend extended time outdoors today and Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 On Sunday, the 500mb ridge attempts to push a bit further east and bring drier weather to our region, however, some of the more recent guidance from global models indicates this ridge will remain a bit further west, opening the door for continued shower and storm chances, primarily over the Coastal Plains. The GFS has been the most aggressive, showing yet another complex of storms organizing to our north and pushing south into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau region Sunday night. At this distance, it looks as if it should weaken considerably before making it into our CWA, but something to keep an eye on. Low end PoPs were kept in place to account for this possibility. Beyond Monday, hot and dry conditions look to rule the long term period as ridging shifts a bit further east into north Texas. Temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 each day with heat indices in the 100-105 range are typical for the first week or two of August. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Isolated SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing early this evening across the Hill Country and Central Texas is forecast to gradually dissipate after sunset. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the night and into the morning on Saturday. Another round of isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA activity is forecast Saturday afternoon and early evening, this time positioned slightly farther south that today. We have included PROB30 TSRA in the TAFs after 20Z Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 98 77 99 / 20 40 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 97 76 98 / 20 40 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 98 75 99 / 20 40 20 20 Burnet Muni Airport 75 94 74 96 / 20 30 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 101 79 103 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 96 75 97 / 30 40 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 75 98 76 100 / 10 30 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 98 75 99 / 20 40 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 96 76 97 / 20 50 30 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 98 78 99 / 10 40 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 101 77 101 / 10 40 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...MMM Aviation...76