604
FXUS64 KEWX 251121 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
621 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms today
  through Sunday, with highest chances Saturday.

- Nearly seasonable late July temperatures and heat indices

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

An inverted upper level trough and a broad surface to mid level low
are fast running out of room and time to develop into a tropical
cyclone as it will move onshore the Texas coast later today. The
National Hurricane Center has a 10 percent chance of development.
Then, the inverted upper level trough and mid level low move over
Southern Texas and northern Mexico tonight into Saturday while the
surface low dissipates. A dry (PWs .9 to 1.2 inches) and subsident
airmass will be replaced by a moist (PWs over 2 inches) and buoyant
airmass. Forcing by this system, the seabreeze, and heating should
generate isolated to scattered showers with moderate instability
allowing for mainly isolated thunderstorms. Will maintain the rain
chances along and east of I-35 today and most areas on Saturday.
Although, rainfall processes should be efficient, the broad nature of
the system without a sharp focus will keep rainfall amounts low.
However, cannot rule out a quick half inch to inch which may bring
some issues in spots with poor drainage. WPC has maintained a
marginal risk for areas east of I-35/I-37 for today and Saturday
where the risk of heavy rains is the greatest. Severe storms are not
expected, however gusty winds are possible as the storms collapse.
The increased clouds along with rain areas will "cool" daytime
temperatures across the far east today and most areas on Saturday to
below average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

With the system nearby and a moist airmass lingering, slight rain
chances continue over most areas on Sunday. The Subtropical Ridge
restrengthens over our area on Monday through most of next week. A
drier and subsident airmass takes hold keeping rain out of the
forecast. Warmer, though nearly seasonable, daytime temperatures
with slightly elevated heat indices are expected. Another inverted
upper level trough possibly moves over our area late next week. Due
to the uncertainty, only low rain chances are forecast for Thursday
afternoon into next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Little to no change to the previous forecast. Expect VFR for most of
the period. Some MVFR ceilings may develop towards sunrise Saturday
followed by 30% chance at showers and thunderstorms at AUS and SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  77  92  77 /  10  10  30  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  76  91  77 /  10  10  30  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  75  92  76 /  10  20  30  10
Burnet Muni Airport            97  74  90  75 /   0   0  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          101  77  96  77 /   0   0  20   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        98  76  92  77 /   0  10  30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             97  74  91  75 /   0   0  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  76  92  76 /  10  20  30  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  76  91  77 /  30  30  50  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  77  92  77 /   0  20  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           99  77  94  77 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...MMM