Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
401 FXUS64 KEWX 060602 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 102 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures more like the first week of September than the first week of October. - Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons 15%-20% chance for showers. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 An upper level ridge covers TX tonight with weak flow at 500mb. The low level pressure gradient is also loose and surface winds are light and variable across our CWA. The airmass remains about the same as 24 hours ago with temperatures from near 70 to the lower 80s and dewpoints from the middle 50s to the middle 60s. We don`t expect any significant change over the next 24 hours with the upper ridge remaining in place. Today will be partly to mostly sunny and rain free. High temperatures this afternoon will continue to be above normal closer to highs expected during the first week of September rather than the first week of October. Monday night will be similar to Sunday night, but there may be a little more southeasterly to easterly wind which could produce a bit more cloud cover and temperatures a couple of degrees warmer. Tuesday the low level flow will become better established from the southeast and bring moister air into the region. This will lead to low (15%-20%) chances for showers or even a thunderstorm. Temperatures over the Coastal Plains may be a couple of degrees warmer, but the rest of the CWA will have highs about the same as Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Tuesday night and Wednesday a weak frontal boundary will move through Central Texas into the northern part of our CWA. This boundary will be stalling as it makes it to our region with little upper level support. The low level flow ahead of the front will continue from the southeast bringing slightly moister air. Wednesday afternoon there will be another low chance (15%-20%) for showers or thunderstorms across our northern counties. By Thursday the frontal boundary will have dissipated and the upper ridge will regain dominance over Texas. Dry weather will return for the remainder of the long term period. Temperatures may drop a couple of degrees with the front Wednesday, but will rebound to above normal. Highs will remain in the upper 80s and lower 90s through the end of the period. Some drier air will move in late week and allow for cooler mornings during the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 VFR flight conditions primarily prevail at the TAF sites. There will be a sct to bkn deck of low clouds developing overnight into Monday morning for locations that are mainly to the south and west of the San Antonio terminals (SAT/SSF), where MVFR ceilings may prevail. Have elected to keep a brief SCT group at 1500 ft at SAT, SSF, and DRT this morning for any low cloud cover that may possibly bleed over the TAF sites. These clouds should mix out after 15Z. Winds trend easterly to east-southeasterly during the afternoon and evening at 10 kts or less while conditions trend light and variable overnight into each morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 94 71 94 71 / 0 10 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 70 94 70 / 0 0 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 68 93 69 / 0 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 89 68 89 68 / 0 10 20 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 72 93 73 / 0 10 20 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 92 69 92 70 / 0 10 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 92 68 93 69 / 0 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 94 68 95 69 / 0 0 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 69 94 69 / 0 0 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 71 92 72 / 0 0 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 94 72 95 73 / 0 0 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...62