Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
983 FXUS64 KEWX 250458 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1058 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm conditions Monday and Wednesday, with a temporary shot of cooler air Monday night through Tuesday night behind a first cold front. - A second, stronger cold front arrives late Wednesday night into early Thanksgiving morning. Colder temperatures then persist Thanksgiving Day through next weekend. - Dry conditions will also persist through the next week. .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Breezy southerly wind and unseasonably warm temperatures are seen this afternoon under mostly clear skies. While highs won`t be record breaking, they will only be 2 to 4 degrees away for a few locations. Southerly flow will continue warm and humid conditions tonight with lows from the mid 50s to mid 60s. A surface low over the Central Plains will bring an associated cold front across South Central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Ahead of this feature, more humid and warm conditions will be seen with a few locations rivaling daily record high temperatures. The front will be on the doorstep of the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill County, and northern I-35 corridor as early as noon tomorrow, eventually moving across all of the area by late Monday evening. Highs may peak in the most northern portions of our CWA in the early afternoon before cooler and drier air filter in from the north. No precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. Lows will be as much as 10-20 degrees colder Monday night than those seen tonight. In the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, lows will generally be in the low 40s although some locations may dip into mid to upper 30s. Elsewhere, the mid 40s to mid 50s will be more common. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Cooler conditions are forecast Tuesday as northerly post-frontal winds persist into the afternoon. Daytime highs will trend mainly from the 60s into the low 70s. This cooler airmass will be short lived as the flow quickly turns southerly entering Tuesday evening as surface low pressure develops into Oklahoma. These winds then increase from the south to southwest into Wednesday. The breezy south to southwesterly flow will result in much warmer and more humid conditions across the region from Wednesday into Wednesday night. Camp Mabry could threaten it`s daily record high while the record highs at the remaining climate sites looks to stay more safe. The next cold front advances across the region from the overnight Wednesday night through early Thanksgiving morning. Temperatures turn much cooler with breezy northerly winds in the wake of the front. Some locations could record the high temperature in the overnight/early morning hours with temperatures then falling throughout the day. Temperatures turn quite chilly Thanksgiving night and the cooler than average weather continues through Black Friday where daytime highs are forecast to top out only in the 50s and low to mid 60s. The temperatures modify slightly Friday night into Saturday as the winds could briefly turn east-southeasterly before another cold front then arrives sometime Saturday into Saturday night, helping to reinforce and prolong the cooler than average weather regime across the region. As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, one unfortunate part of this forecast is the lack of rain, but we have known for a little while now that a warmer and drier fall, along with similar conditions for the Winter months, would be the most likely outcome. This lack of rainfall will continue to worsen our short and long term drought conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period with cirrus streaming into the region. The exception will be a period of low cloud and fog potential early Monday morning in a small area around a SAT-HDO line. 00Z HREF is indicating a 60-90% chance of IFR ceilings developing 10Z-14Z in this small region. There is also a potential for pockets of LIFR conditions just to the west and southwest of SAT. The low clouds and fog are forecast to scatter out after 15Z. A dry cold front is also forecast to move through the region Monday afternoon and evening. SW winds develop ahead of the front, turning NW to N behind it, with some N wind gusts 20-30 KT developing Monday evening through portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal PLains. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 122 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 November 25 November 27 Location Record Maximum (Year) Record Maximum (Year) Austin Camp Mabry 88 (2019) 85 (1925) Austin Bergstrom 85 (1967) 87 (2005) Del Rio 88 (1942) 87 (2005) San Antonio 86 (1942) 90 (2005) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 62 82 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 84 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 60 85 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 58 77 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 57 87 52 70 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 80 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 56 83 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 60 85 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 85 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 61 83 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 61 84 52 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...27 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...76