Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
593 FXUS64 KEWX 021802 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1202 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool weather continues through the work week. - Mostly light and intermittent rain beginning Wednesday afternoon over the Coastal Plains and spreading across South-Central Texas Thursday and Friday. - Drier and warmer weather for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Fair skies are expected to continue through tonight as surface high pressure and ridging aloft keep the atmosphere dry. As the center of the high pressure region moves east of the area, a gradual transition to light southerly winds should emerge across South- Central Texas tonight. Temperatures early Wednesday morning should be a step up from Tuesday morning, with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. With radiational cooling the dominant form of overnight cooling, the coldest spots could be low-lying areas of the Coastal Plains where winds will be calmest. Clouds begin to return Wednesday as a strengthening upper-level trough over the Intermountain West begins to whisk moisture from the Pacific and Gulf into our area. Thinner cloud cover to the west is forecast to allow for highs in the upper 60s to low 70s in the Rio Grande Plains. Low stratiform cloud cover should accompany the increased Gulf air along and east of the I-35 corridor, keeping highs in the low to mid 60s. Rain chances start to increase Wednesday afternoon for the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor as a coastal low develops off the middle Texas coast. Rain intensities will primarily be drizzly to light with little instability to work with, and rain totals are likely in the hundredths of inches up to a quarter inch for most on Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move across South-Central Texas from the northwest late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The nearby coastal low and associated plume of instability aloft could be at their strongest Wednesday night, which could support an isolated thunderstorm over the Coastal Plains ahead of the front and some isolated shower activity along the front itself over the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor early Thursday morning. Cooler air and breezy winds behind the front are forecast to bring lows down into the low 40s over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. Elsewhere, the cloud cover and later cold front arrival leads to more mild lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 The upper-level trough responsible for the increased cloudiness midweek makes its closest approach of the area Thursday through Friday and could be accompanied by several small perturbations within the subtropical jet. As southwesterly flow glides atop the denser cooler airmass behind Thursday`s cold front, chances for showers increases across much of South-Central Texas. Given incongruent overlap between rising air aloft and dense descending air near the surface, intensities will likely remain light, and the most recent NBM shows most likely rainfall amounts between a trace and a half-inch for most of the area, increasing west to east. A few higher amounts can`t be ruled out in the Coastal Plains if stronger showers materialize Thursday morning. The cloud cover will keep temperatures cool Thursday and Friday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Lows could fall into the mid-30s Friday morning, but persistent cloud cover mutes further drops. Drier conditions are forecast over the weekend as the trough passes, displacing the subtropical jet to our south and east. This should support clearer skies and warmer temperatures for the weekend, though still at seasonable values. Another cold front is possible early next week and could bring a parting shot of cooler air before the a broad ridge begins to build over the western US for the first time since last month, perhaps leading to a stretch of more mild temperatures next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 High clouds will stream across South-Central Texas today and coverage will vary between scattered and broken for the afternoon and evening. In Austin and San Antonio winds will be from the northeast until later this afternoon when they will shift to the southeast. Wind speeds will be less than 10 kts. Winds at DRT will be southeasterly through the evening and shift to the east overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 40 65 47 51 / 0 10 40 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 36 64 47 51 / 0 10 50 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 38 64 48 54 / 0 10 40 40 Burnet Muni Airport 39 67 43 47 / 0 0 20 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 43 69 51 56 / 0 0 10 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 37 67 45 49 / 0 0 30 40 Hondo Muni Airport 37 68 48 55 / 0 0 20 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 36 64 48 53 / 0 10 50 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 38 62 51 55 / 0 20 70 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 41 65 51 54 / 0 10 30 50 Stinson Muni Airport 40 65 52 56 / 0 10 30 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...05