Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
040 FXUS64 KEWX 111752 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1252 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1240 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 - Low rain chances remain through early this evening from the northern Hill Country into portions of the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. - A Heat Advisory has been issued from noon to 7 PM on Saturday over the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Above normal temperatures continue into next week and additional heat products may be needed. - Mainly dry conditions this weekend into next week, except for some low rain chances over the Coastal Plains in the afternoons. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 One more day of low rain chances remains today before relatively dry conditions take hold into the middle of next week. Northwesterly flow aloft and any boundaries from showers/storms earlier this morning could lead to additional activity this afternoon and evening mainly from the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains north and east of the San Antonio metro. Coverage should be isolated or widely scattered as mid-level ridging begins to build east today and be over much of the area on Saturday. While an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out Saturday, chances are too low to include any mentionable precipitation keeping the forecast dry. Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend with highs in the upper 90s to up to 105 degrees, highest along the Rio Grande. A few isolated locations may see heat indices up to 108 degrees in the Coastal Plains though late this afternoon. For Saturday, a slight increase in temperatures from today is expected with the broader ridging over the area. Maximum heat index values will be close or just above 108 degrees along and east of I-35 pushing us towards the Heat Advisory threshold. Given we`re heading into the weekend and temperatures continue to be well above average, have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for Saturday from 12 PM to 7 PM. Additional heat products may be needed Sunday or even next week. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 As mentioned in the short term discussion, hot conditions continue Sunday through at least early next week. Ridging shifts further north Sunday, then gradually shifts eastward towards the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Monday. This will bring back a slight increase in moisture, most notably in the eastern half of the forecast area. High temperatures will continue to hover around from the upper 90s to around 102 degrees through Tuesday, and heat index values may again approach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria during this time depending on location. The main message remains that summer is not over and to continue to practice heat safety. Outside of some seabreeze showers or thunderstorms each day in the late afternoons, mainly dry conditions continue across South Central Texas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Primary concern this forecast period will be breezy southeasterly winds this evening, primarily at SAT and SSF as the seabreeze moves inland. VFR ceilings are expected through the period as HREF guidance is rather unimpressed with the probs for less than 2500ft ceilings (~20-30%) so will opt to keep VFR at the moment. Winds are a bit more southwesterly at AUS but should switch to more southeasterly over the next couple hours. DRT will likely stay with winds more 110-140 through the period at generally less than 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 102 77 101 / 10 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 101 77 100 / 10 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 101 76 100 / 10 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 75 99 74 98 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 104 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 101 77 100 / 10 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 75 100 75 99 / 0 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 101 76 100 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 100 77 100 / 10 10 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 100 78 99 / 10 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 78 102 79 101 / 10 10 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ173-191>194- 205>209-220>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...MMM