489
FXUS64 KEWX 040541 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Medium (30-60%) chances of a complex of storms tonight and early
Wednesday morning across the Hill Country and into portions of the I-
35 corridor
- Level 1-2 out of 5 risk for severe storms tonight into early
Wednesday morning primarily across the Hill Country to near and
north of the Austin metro area

Isolated streamer shower and thunderstorm activity near and east of
the U.S. 77 corridor will continue to shift east through the
afternoon and weaken towards sunset. To the west, new convective
development is taking place along the dryline in Terrell county, and
this activity could move east through the remainder of the afternoon
and evening, clipping portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and
northern Hill Country. There is some uncertainty in this, as this
morning`s complex of storms through the northern Hill Country has
temporarily stabilized this region.

Our attention turns farther north, where storms are foreast to
develop in west-central and north-central Texas along a cold front.
Several CAMs are developing an organized complex of storms across
these regions, which advances south into the Hill Country and
potentially Austin area during the overnight and pre-dawn hours
Wednesday. Most CAMs quickly weaken the complex around sunrise as it
approaches the U.S.90/I-10 corridor near San Antonio. We will watch
this closely, as the MCSs recently have been overachieving this far
south.

There is a Level 1-2 out of 5 risk for severe storms with this
activity, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main threats.
This severe risk is mainly for the Hill Country to near and north of
the Austin metro area. Some isolated pockets of 1-2 inches of rain
are possible across Llano and Burnet counties, with amounts trailing
off southward, assuming the complex weakens. An overachieving
complex could expand both the severe and heavy rainfall risk south
of these areas.

Wednesday`s forecast depends on the exact evolution of the overnight
complex. If a complex does move across much of the area, then the
atmosphere is likely to be stabilized behind it for much of the day.
However, if the activity does weaken quickly around daybreak, then
some greater chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms would be expected during the afternoon, with the
remnant outflow boundary serving as a focus in our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Widespread heat returns late week with near record high
  temperatures this weekend.

Thursday an upper level ridge will build over Texas from northern
Mexico leading to a period of dry weather. This ridge will strengthen
over the end of the week. Subsident flow will produce lots of
sunshine and temperatures will climb as a result. Highs will rise to
well above normal by Friday and may reach records over the weekend.
Heat advisories may be needed south of the Hill Country Sunday and
Monday. A weak cold front will move into the northern part of our CWA
Sunday night and stall. This front will generate sufficient lift to
produce showers and thunderstorms from Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Very few changes from the 00Z forecast as the timing of TSRA looks on
track for the predawn and sunrise hours at AUS, SAT, and SSF. Will
continue with higher confidence at AUS with a TEMPO for TSRA and
lower confidence with SAT and SSF and a PROB30 group utilized. Expect
VFR ceilings to return by mid to late morning along with light east
southeasterly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  75  94  76 /  40  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  74  94  74 /  40  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  74  95  74 /  40  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            87  72  92  73 /  30   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  79 100  78 /  20  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  73  92  74 /  40  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             94  75  96  74 /  40   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  73  94  74 /  40  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  74  94  75 /  30  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  76  95  76 /  40  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  77  96  77 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...05
Aviation...MMM