505
FXUS64 KEWX 031141 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
641 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Low risk for an isolated strong to severe storms today.

- Medium risk for isolated strong to severe storms Friday.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the work week.

- Rain chances begin to increase Friday morning into the afternoon.

The 06Z 500MB analysis shows a couple of perturbations moving across
the Trans-Pecos area into central Texas. At the surface, a low
pressure system sits nearby the Big Bend National Park with a dryline
that extends to the south along the Rio Grande and a stationary
front that extends to the northeast part of Texas. Convection is
ongoing as of this writing (2AM CDT) and expected to persist
overnight into Thursday morning especially over central Texas.
However, there is a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm to
move across the northern part of Val Verde and/or Edwards Counties in
the next couple of hours. Otherwise, we start with cloudy skies and
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s for the morning commute.
Clouds are likely to linger around across most of South Central Texas
through late morning before they begin to break to partly cloudy
skies in the afternoon. Today`s highs are forecasted to range from
the upper 80s to mid 90s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and
Coastal Plains to the upper 90s and up to 103 degrees across the
southern portion of the Rio Grande.

There are two opportunities for thunderstorms to affect parts of the
Hill Country mid morning and early evening. The first attempt is
when the surface low mentioned above pushes to the northeast passing
close to Burnet, Llano, and Williamson Counties with plenty of Gulf
moisture feeding into that area while locations to the west of the I-
35 corridor enjoy the present of the dryline (a drier airmass).
Forecast soundings show a moderate capping inversion in place. If
the cap weakens or has a chance to erode, any thunderstorm that
develops could become strong to marginally severe. For the second
attempt which comes early this evening, a nearby stationary frontal
boundary and a weaker capping inversion could be enough for a
strong to marginally severe thunderstorm to pop-up.

As the night progresses into Friday morning continuing to the
afternoon period, the weather picture changes as the dryline pushes
back to the west of Val Verde County and a Pacific front slowly
moves across the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill
Country. From above (500MB), we likely end up with the passage of
several short wave perturbations with the main upper level pressure
system moving over southern Arizona. Some hires models hold off the
cap while others don`t. Also, medium range models such as the GFS
and ECMWF show no capping with MLCAPE values above 2000 J/kg.
Therefore, any thunderstorm that develops with this type of
downdraft energy could produce large hail and damaging winds. The
threat for severe storms continue into the long term forecast
period. More details below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Key messages:

- Unseasonably cool to cold this weekend into early next week, then
turning warmer mid week

- Chances of showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning
with some strong to severe storms possible

The much advertised cold front completes its journey across South
Central Texas Friday night into Saturday morning to provide forcing
for showers and storms. Convective parameters indicate a slight
chance of strong to severe storms with large MUCAPE and steep mid
level lapse rates forecast. Large hail has become the main threat
with damaging winds possible. The tornado threat has moved to the
northeast of our area. Locally heavy rains also possible. Most
showers and storms move east of our area with the frontal passage.
However, some showers are possible over the Hill Country and Edwards
Plateau ahead of an upper level trough Saturday afternoon.

Cold advection in wake of the front leads to unseasonably cool to
cold temperatures this weekend into early next week. The exception
being, seasonal temperatures are expected from the San Antonio area
across the Winter Garden to the Rio Grande due to downsloping flow
on Saturday. A few low lying Hill Country spots will flirt with
freezing around sunrise Sunday morning, though especially Monday
morning when winds will be the lightest. Southerly winds return for
a warming trend for the middle of next week.

A strong pressure gradient in wake of the front will bring breezy to
windy northerly flow on Saturday, decreasing a little on Sunday. Low
humidities across the Rio Grande Plains and the Edwards Plateau in
combination with the breezy winds should result in near critical
fire weather conditions there on Saturday and Sunday. Rangeland Fire
Danger Statements are likely to be issued for those areas. Although
the low humidities spread to most areas on Monday and Tuesday,
lighter winds keep fire weather conditions only elevated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

MVFR conditions are expected for the I-35 terminals through at least
16Z/17Z and 14Z/15Z for KDRT. VFR conditions return after those time
frames and remain through this evening. MVFR and IFR cigs are
anticipated for tonight into Friday morning. Mainly wind flow comes
from the southeast with periods of light and variable speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  72  85  63 /  10  20  60  90
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  70  86  62 /  10  20  60  90
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  72  89  66 /  10  10  40  70
Burnet Muni Airport            88  66  81  59 /  10  30  60 100
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  69  92  61 /   0  30  20  70
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  69  84  60 /  10  30  60  90
Hondo Muni Airport             94  71  91  61 /   0  20  20  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        91  70  87  63 /  10  10  50  80
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  73  87  68 /  10  10  30  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  72  90  65 /  10  10  40  80
Stinson Muni Airport           94  74  91  67 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...17