093
FXUS64 KEWX 232333
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
533 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 122 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Surface high pressure over Louisiana/Mississippi this afternoon will
shift east through the weekend. Its influence will continue through
tonight with southerly flow and mostly clear skies over the region.
Moderate southerly flow continues overnight with increasing low
level moisture advancing into the area and eventually pooling over
the western portion of the CWA. Low clouds are expected to form
early Sunday morning, mainly in the west, which will aid warmer lows
in the 50s over much of the area. Clouds should dissipate Sunday
afternoon with even stronger southerly wind expected. Highs will
jump into the upper 70s over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country and into the 80s elsewhere. Right now no record temperatures
are forecast for Sunday, but they`re only 3-5 degrees away for some
locations. Warmer temperatures remain overnight into Monday morning
in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 122 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

A zonal mid-level flow will mainly trend throughout the long term
period across South-Central Texas. Passing shortwave disturbances
and weather systems moving through the central and northern plains
will help to send a series of two dry cold fronts south into and
across the state. As a result, do anticipate a bit of a roller
coaster in the temperature department within the long term period.

The first and likely weaker of the two fronts is currently forecast
to arrive from late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Ahead of
this front, a warm southwesterly low-level flow is expected, which
could allow for the daily high temperature records to become
challenged. Moderate northerly winds in the wake of the front then
helps to usher in a drier and cooler airmass Monday night through
Tuesday. The cooler airmass with the north winds is expected to
remain quite short lived as a southerly flow returns from Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This yields to a much warmer Wednesday where
afternoon highs may once again challenge the daily record highs
across the region.

The second cold front is forecast to arrive for sometime overnight
Wednesday night into early Thanksgiving morning. This front will
likely trend stronger than the previous front as it`s upper level
support digs farther south in comparison to the last. Northerly
winds following the front brings the return of a much cooler and
drier airmass into the region. A breezy and cooler Thanksgiving is
forecast as a result. As surface high pressure builds across the
region, the winds eventually slack of but the cooler and drier
conditions maintain through the end of the forecast period. Expect
cooler overnight lows in the 30s and low 40s as a result and for
Black Friday to trend as the coolest day of the week with daytime
highs ranging from the upper 50s into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the evening hours. Low level
moisture return is expected to take place up the Rio Grande and into
the Hill Country overnight. HREF indicates a high chance (70-90%) of
IFR ceilings developing along and northwest of a ERV-UVA-DRT line
09Z-13Z. There is less confidence in the stratus developing into the
I-35 corridor, although a few HREF members do indicate a MVFR to IFR
ceiling near SAT-5C1 10Z-14Z. The stratus is forecast to gradually
scatter out 16Z-18Z, with VFR conditions Sunday afternoon. SE winds
generally 5-10KT overnight, although a few locations in the higher
elevations of the Hill Country could see 10-15KT. A S to SW wind
around 10-15KT, with gusts 20-25KT, is forecast to develop at most
locations Sunday afternoon, with the exception of the Rio Grande
where wind speeds will be lower.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 122 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

          November 25             November 27
Location           Record Maximum (Year)  Record Maximum (Year)

Austin Camp Mabry       88 (2019)               85 (1925)
Austin Bergstrom        85 (1967)               87 (2005)
Del Rio                 88 (1942)               87 (2005)
San Antonio             86 (1942)               90 (2005)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              59  82  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  56  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     57  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            57  80  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           58  82  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        58  82  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             55  82  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        56  83  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   58  84  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       58  82  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           56  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...76