763
FXUS64 KEWX 261913
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
213 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Key Message:

- Isolated shower activity through late this afternoon.

A weak shortwave moving over the area in tandem with daytime heating
and sufficient moisture has generated some showers this afternoon
with most activity over the coastal plains, I-35 corridor and
eastern Hill Country. Don`t expect any significant rain amounts with
this activity but some locations may pick up a couple hundredths to
a tenth of an inch with more substantial showers. Upper ridging
becomes more dominant over the area tomorrow which should further
suppress showers. That said, a few thunderstorms may form along the
dryline or mountains west of the area tomorrow and impact Val Verde
County late Sunday.

Otherwise, warm and humid conditions are expected for the weekend
with highs in the 80s and 90s. Low cloud development is expected
each night keeping mild low temperatures in place in the mid 60s to
low 70s. Persistent southeasterly wind may be breezy in the
afternoon and evenings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Key messages:

- Wet, warm, humid and stormy pattern resuming Monday next week.

Monday should be the last quiet day weather wise for most with highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s. Tuesday is where we resume our wet and
stormy pattern as a low pressure and stationary front look to kick
off showers and storms along it. Those storms should advance westward
into our area by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We then get
into a lull until either late Wednesday afternoon or early evening as
a weak ridge over TX moves off to the east followed quickly by a
trough. This trough and attendant cold front should give us enough
forcing and lift for showers and storms to erupt over Central TX and
progress southeast reaching the Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country first and reaching the rest of the forecast area late in the
evening. Models still have some discrepancies with the Euro showing
a pretty good convective system approaching while the GFS keeps it
much further north out of our area. We will have to watch this for
future forecasts as there certainly could be stronger storms with the
added vorticity from the trough moving just to our north.

Storms should continue moving southeastward into the coastal plains
before we get a bit of a break for thursday depending on how the
prior nights convection progresses. Thursday could end up even drier
then forecast if we get overnight convection as the atmosphere will
be overturned for most of the day. This is short lived however as the
cold front that pushed through stalls just to our south for Friday
into Saturday. Depending on where this now stationary front sets up
could determine if we get yet another round of storms that ride along
the front and across our area. Temperatures should remain in the
upper 80s low 90s for highs and low 70s for lows throughout the
period. Stay tuned for future forecasts as we get more clarity on
these upcoming systems.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

MVFR ceilings may hold on another hour before VFR conditions return
and remain through tonight. MVFR ceilings redevelop around 05-06Z
for I- 35 sites and around 08Z for DRT. Higher probabilities for IFR
ceilings are seen at AUS and SAT around sunrise. Southeasterly winds
prevail with breezy/gusty conditions mainly daytime through evening
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  89  71  89 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  89  70  89 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  90  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            68  86  69  86 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  95  73  94 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  89  70  88 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  91  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  89  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  89  70  88 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  89  71  89 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           71  91  72  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...27