089
FXUS64 KEWX 081217 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
617 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The 07Z surface analysis shows a stationary front across the
southern Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country with a low pressure
system to the southwest of Val Verde County. Another stationary
front is analyzed from the Texas panhandle to the south and into the
northern part of Val Verde County. The latter frontal boundary is
forecast to slowly advance to the east-southeast overnight and
Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast
ahead and along the front through the period. Some strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern
Edwards Plateau mid to late Friday morning and over parts of the
Hill Country and areas along and east of Highway 77 in the afternoon
and evening as the front pushes into east Texas. The main weather
hazards are large hail and damaging wind gusts. The convective
activity should stay isolated due to lack of large scale support,
but there is enough shear in place for rotating cells and therefore,
can`t rule out an isolated tornado. Also, winds are forecast to
increase within the boundary layer mid to late Friday morning with
pwats between 1.6 to 1.7 inches which could result in pockets of
heavy rain. The threat for heavy pockets of rain continues in the
afternoon mainly across the Hill County and along and east of
Highway 77 as the frontal boundary slows down is eastward
progression with pwats ranging from 1.6 to 1.8 inches based of GFS
and RAP forecast soundings.

With cloudy skies taking over the local area for most of the day,
high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s across
the Hill Country to mid and upper 80s across the coastal Plains. By
this evening, the frontal boundary is likely to be exiting our local
area. However, an upper level southwest flow is still through the
overnight hours as an upper level low pressure system pushes into
the central Plains resulting in isolated to low end chances for
showers and storms across portions of the eastern counties of south
central Texas. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the mid 40s
over the northern part of Val Verde to lower 60s along the coastal
Plains.

Saturday should stay dry for the most part with early clouds across
the coastal Plains and then dissipating during the afternoon for
mostly sunny skies. Highs are forecast to reach the lower to upper
70s and even lower 80s over portions of the coastal Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Warmer conditions are forecast Sunday into Monday under zonal flow
aloft. High temperatures back into the low to mid 80s are forecast.
Tuesday night into Wednesday an upper level shortwave trough passes
through the Plains and deepens over the eastern CONUS Thursday. This
will send a cold front through the area sometime Wednesday. There
remains a large spread among the global models and their ensemble
members with how deep the shortwave trough becomes. Almost all of
the GFS and CMC ensemble members are dry with the cold front.
However, a handful of ECM members are still indicating precipitation
along the cold front. We will continue to watch model trends, but at
this time our forecast does not call for precipitation. Cooler
conditions are forecast Thursday, with low temperatures in the 40s
and 50s and highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

IFR and MVFR cigs are forecast to remain across the area terminals
through early this afternoon. VFR conditions return between the early
and middle of the day period and stay through the remainder of the
forecast cycle. A cold front is forecast to push across the I-35
sites late this afternoon into the evening. Ahead and along the
front, showers and storms are forecast to develop but there is low
confidence on impacts to the area airports. The wind shift in the
wake of the frontal passage is happening between 22Z and 23Z. Wind
speeds should be around 8 to 10 knots with some higher gusts up to
20 knots behind the front for several hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              83  58  76  57 /  50  50  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  83  58  75  56 /  50  50  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  60  79  59 /  30  40  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            78  53  75  55 /  60  30   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  54  77  57 /  70   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  56  74  55 /  60  50  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             80  58  78  57 /  60  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  58  77  56 /  30  50  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  61  75  59 /  30  50  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  61  78  60 /  30  20   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           85  63  80  61 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...76
Aviation...17