608
FXUS64 KEWX 080625
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
125 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly stable weather for the work week with just some sea-
  breeze showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

- Humid air could send heat indices into the the triple digits for
  most areas through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

High pressure is filling in over TX as the upper trough that gave us
the unstable weather the past several days is pulling away into the
Central Plains. The air mass over Central TX still contains deep
tropical moisture and that is allowing for some isolated to
scattered convection mainly associated with the sea breeze. Coverage
and inland extent was pretty low Sunday, but the finer resolution
models show a deeper inland push for Monday as pooled higher PWat
values remain in the 2 to 2.3 inch range. Sunday`s minimal activity
was in part due to much of the mixed layer showing a dry SW wind,
but that will change to a more Gulf influenced SSE wind for Monday.
A blend of the latest deterministic forecasts is favored over the
NBM which is running drier. Minimal activity is expected again
tonight as the pattern aloft will only support diurnal convection.
For Tuesday, the pooled moisture will have been dispersed as the
ridging aloft strengthens. There could be enough moisture that would
have drifted into the Edwards Plateau to perhaps support an
isolated shower or storm in mainly Val Verde County Tuesday. There
bigger concerns now will focus on the developing summer heat. With
plenty of evapotranspiration moisture available, the near normal
summertime temperatures will be combined with high dewpoints through
the afternoons. This should add a few degrees to the heat index over
what will be seen from the ambient temperatures. So while ambient
high temperatures should be mainly in the low to mid 90s, each day
could see the heat index push into the 100 to 105 degree range for
many areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Ridging will be the predominant feature over the area for mid week,
and heat index values will continue get into the 100-105 degree
territory through the work week. Min temperatures will continue to
remain in the 70s for all but a few pockets of the Hill Country.
While dry weather is favored, a few seabreeze showers and storms
cannot be ruled out each day, especially in the counties closest to
the Coastal Bend. By this weekend there appears to be a weak
disturbance mostly detected at 700 mb that brings a surge of deeper
Gulf moisture toward the TX coast. This could boost daytime PoPs up
from the daily 5-15 percent type coverage mid to late week to more
like 20-40 percent perhaps by Sunday evening. This pattern could
also become more unstable due to the upper ridge being suppressed
from the north as a cold front reaches the Red River Valley and a
mid to upper level NW wind flow develops. So for most of this week
we should enjoy mostly hot and stable summer-like days to dry out,
but be prepared for possibly another round of stormy weather next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The next hour or two could be a little tricky with ceilings in the
Austin and San Antonio areas. Those airports should be MVFR by
07Z. The San Antonio terminals may be intermittently IFR for
a couple of hours either side of sunrise. DRT will be MVFR by
around 10Z. All terminals will be back to VFR by around noon. Low
clouds will redevelop late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  75  92  76 /  20   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  75  92  76 /  30   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  74  91  74 /  30   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            89  73  90  74 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  76  95  76 /  10  10  30   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  74  91  75 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             89  75  90  74 /  40  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        89  74  92  75 /  30   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  74  92  75 /  20   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  75  91  75 /  30  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           90  75  91  75 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...05