879
FXUS64 KEWX 051031
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
531 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Low to medium (15-40%) rain and storm chances for weekend and Labor
  Day to mainly favor the Coastal Plains and Southern Edwards
  Plateau

- Daily sea breeze shower and storm chances in the Coastal Plains
  through much of next week

- Humid conditions with above average temperatures and peak heat
  indices continue

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Mid-level spin (vort) over the region yesterday from the leftovers
of Edouard will continue to drift towards the south-southwest and
loses influence to the region. However, some additional spin aloft
then approaches the region out of the northwestern Gulf tonight
through Sunday thanks to a TUTT low. The moisture levels over the
region stay elevated (75th to 90 percentile range for this time of
year) with PWATs mainly in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range. This would
support low to medium (15-40%) rain chances over the region but
lifting mechanisms lack a bit. Chances will favor the Southern
Edwards Plateau into the Western Hill Country with the help from
orographic lift and through the Coastal Plains with the sea breeze
and any streamer activity coming off the coast. Chances trend the
lowest for much of the I-35 corridor, where the majority stay rain
free today. Sunday offers slightly better chances but still look
lower compared to the Coastal Plains and the Southern Edwards
Plateau. Rain amounts are expected to be mostly below a tenth to
quarter inch outside of a locally heavier shower or storm.

Yesterday, early day light rain and sprinkles along with lingering
cloud cover provided some heat relief to areas east of the Rio
Grande and Southern Edwards Plateau. This does not look to be the
case today or Sunday but most locations still look to remain below
the century mark, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. It remains
humid though, as result of the elevated moisture, resulting in
afternoon heat indices in the 102 to 107 degree range for areas
along and east of the I-35 corridor and into portions of the Rio
Grande Plains. Nights will stay warm with the lows in the 70s. The
persistent southeasterly flow remains fairly light, but there will
be slight increases in the breeziness near and just after sunset
with the passage of the sea breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Moisture will stick around across the region from Labor Day into
much of next week but does lower slightly more to near the 1.6 to
1.9 inch range. Moisture will be highest, as typical, across the
Coastal Plains closer to the coast. The moisture and a light to
moderate southeasterly low-level flow remains enough to promote
daily chances for isolated to scattered rain showers and storms
across the Coastal Plains, east of the I-35 corridor. Some of the
latest guidance picked up on the possibility for perhaps another
weak inverted trough approaching from the Northern Gulf into late
week from Thursday through Friday. Right now, will elect to keep
rain and storm chances mostly remain confined across the coastal
plains through this period. The heat stays persistent with the
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s with the heat indices
highest along/east of I-35 and across the Rio Grande Plains. The
morning lows hold in the 70s, with a few approaching 80 degrees at
times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Other than MVFR cigs for KSAT and possibly at KSSF for a few
hours (through 14Z), I am forecasting for VFR conditions for the
rest of the day into late tonight. A southerly wind flow (10 knots
or less) is forecast to dominate the local sites through this
cycle. Any shower or storm activity that develops today is
forecast to stay away from terminals for no impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  77  97  77 /  10  10  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  76  96  75 /  10  10  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  76  97  75 /  10  10  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            95  74  96  74 /  10  10  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  78  97  77 /  10  10  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  76  97  76 /  10  10  30   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  75  96  74 /  20  10  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  75  97  74 /  10  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  76  96  76 /  20  10  40  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  78  97  77 /  10  10  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           99  78  98  77 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...17