389
FXUS64 KEWX 212331
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
631 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pockets of heavy rain are possible for the rest of this
  afternoon and early evening that could lead to localized
  flooding

- Chances of rain continue across most areas on Friday with
  pockets of heavy rain possible along and east of Interstate 37
  and south of Interstate 35, and the coastal plains. Localized
  flooding possible.

- Drier for some areas on Saturday with dry conditions spreading
  across most locations on Sunday

- Wetter conditions return on Tuesday into Wednesday as a storm
  track moves across the Southern Plains

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A shear axis is moving across our area this afternoon. Based on
satellite data, the shear axis extends from northeast to
southwest from La Grange to Frio to Eagle Pass. Also, a boundary
has formed across the northern Hill Country and it is moving
across the Llano and Williamson Counties. With plenty of
moisture in place (precipitable water values over 2 inches) this
translates to the development of moderate to heavy showers and
isolated storms capable of producing pockets of heavy rain that
could lead to localized flooding. As the afternoon progresses,
it is likely that the intensity of these storms increases with
the aid of daytime heating. Thus far, one to three inches of
rain has fallen across the southern Edwards Plateau. Additional
one to two inches with isolated up to three inches are possible
for the rest of this afternoon and evening. Can`t rule out wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph with stronger storms. Hires models are
trending drier across the Rio Grande and southern Edwards
Plateau late afternoon focusing across the southern Rio Grande,
Hill Country (including the Austin area), I-35/I-37 corridors,
and the coastal plains.

As the shear axis continues to push to the south this evening, the
focus of shower and storm activity is forecast to stay across the
coastal plains with slight to low chances for rain over a good
portion of the local area with the exception of portions of the
southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande where PoPs are less than 20
percent.

The shear axis lingers across the local area on Friday and the
combination of abundant moisture and outflow boundaries moving
around the area presents another opportunity for moderate to heavy
showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and
evening. Stronger storms are capable of producing heavy downpours
that could lead to localized flooding and wind gusts of 30 to 40
mph. With the loss of daytime heating, shower and storm activity
decreases during the evening into the overnight period.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Saturday looks drier for some areas, but showers and storms are
likely across portions of the coastal plains and nearby the
I-35 corridor. By Sunday, the subtropical ridge builds back into
our area and brings dry conditions and plenty of sunshine.

Chances for rain return on Tuesday into Wednesday as a storm track
moves across the Southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Seasonable high and low temperatures are forecast across South
Central Texas through the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Looks like one last round or showers and thunderstorms is
approaching the Austin area, but storms should stay west of AUS.
We have included a PROB30 group for the chance for thunderstorms
at the terminal. Most likely impact would be strong gusty winds.
There is a less than 20% chance for convection in San Antonio
and Del Rio for the rest of the evening. Otherwise, all
terminals will be VFR through the evening and overnight. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday afternoon in
the Austin and San Antonio areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  94  74  95 /  30  40  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  94  73  95 /  40  50  20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  94  72  94 /  40  50  30  30
Burnet Muni Airport            73  90  71  92 /  20  30  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  95  76  96 /  20  20  20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  94  72  95 /  30  40  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             73  94  73  93 /  30  50  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  95  72  95 /  40  50  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  91  73  92 /  40  60  30  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  94  76  94 /  30  40  20  40
Stinson Muni Airport           77  96  76  94 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...17
Aviation...05