431
FXUS64 KEWX 061104
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
604 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Low to medium (15-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms
Today and Labor Day

- Daily sea breeze thunderstorm chances in the Coastal Plains
through much of next week

- Humid conditions with above average temperatures and peak heat
indices continue

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A large and expansive upper level ridge continues to remain parked
over the Great Plains when looking at upper air analysis. A weak
disturbance currently located over the western Gulf is noted via
water vapor satellite imagery. Eventually the mid to upper ridge
will shift to the east through the short term period, but will
continue to dominate over Texas and our area. The disturbance over
the Gulf will continue to drift slowly to the west eventually moving
inland over Texas. As it does so, it will generate isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day today. Given the
continued hot airmass in place, some storms may produce strong gusty
winds much like we have seen the past few afternoons. Additionally,
convection will be diurnally driven and will likely wane as we lose
our daytime heating.

Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees for Sunday. Monday we could see similar conditions
as the disturbance remains over the area and fizzles out. We should
see highs just a few degrees warmer upper 90s low 100s for most with
heat indices once again just below or near advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The strong upper level ridge will eventually break down over the
northern part of the country. However, it will continue to control
the weather across the southern states. We will remain under
southeasterly low level flow which will continue to keep hot, moist
air over South-Central Texas. Additionally we could see some
seabreeze convection occur daily from Tuesday through Thursday
mainly over the Coastal Plains, but chances remain rather low.
Otherwise expect the majority of our area to remain hot and dry with
highs in the upper 90s to near 100 each day and lows in the low to
mid 70s. We could likely see heat indices just shy of heat advisory
criteria (108+ degrees) as moisture will remain across the area.
Continue to check back to future forecasts and remember to practice
safe heat safety.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Latest LAMP guidance is suggesting VFR for the next several hours
and back off from the MVFR cigs for the I-35 terminals for the 12Z
period. So, I am following that trend, however, confidence is low
and MVFR cigs could still happen for an hour or less between now
and 15Z. After that short period, guidance and hires models bring
chances for rain including thunderstorm activity late morning into
the afternoon. I think the best chances for showers and storms
over the I-35 airports are mid to late afternoon (showing this
possibility using the PROB30 group). VFR cigs return early to mid
evening as showers and storms move away from the airport sites. It
looks like models want to keep VFR conditions throughout the night
into Monday morning, so we are going with that for now. A
southeast to south wind flow of 10 knots or less to prevail with
occasional higher gusts especially associated with showers and
storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  77  99  77 /  40   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  76  98  77 /  40   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  75  98  76 /  30  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            94  74  95  74 /  40   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  75  97  76 /  20  10  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  76  98  76 /  40   0  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  73  97  74 /  20  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  75  99  75 /  30  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  77  98  77 /  40  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  77  97  78 /  30  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  77  99  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...17