787
FXUS64 KEWX 031041
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
541 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms for most areas today and again
Thursday.

- Locally heavy rainfall possibly taking shape late Thursday into
early Friday across the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards
Plateau. Locally heavy rain concerns spread east across the
remainder of the region on Friday.

- Rain chances decrease, but continue into the upcoming weekend as
temperatures trend upward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A weak upper disturbance over southeast Texas along with outflow
boundaries and daytime heating helped convection develop across
portions of south central Texas yesterday evening. Some lingering
convection mainly across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande
plains region should slowly weaken through the early morning hours
while moving westward. For today, the incoming hi-res models tend to
favor rain chances from the coastal plains region back westward into
portions of the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau.
Lingering outflow boundary from Tuesday evening`s convection along
with daytime heating and a weak shortwave trough moving out of the
Big Bend region should help in the development of showers and
thunderstorms. We will also keep a chance for afternoon convection
across the remainder of the region given today should be a similar
setup as Tuesday. Gusty winds, heavy rain and lightning will be the
main concerns with the stronger storms. The NBM suggests highs on
Wednesday will drop a few degrees. While we do expect to see some
cooling due to increased cloud cover and rain chances, we will bump
highs up slightly over the NBM.

A subtle increase in southwest flow aloft with lingering moisture
and heating should be enough to generate more diurnally driven
convection across the region on Thursday. Moisture levels remain
highest near the coast, so will tend to favor the better rain
chances here. With continued weak flow through the column, will need
to monitor the stronger storms for gusty winds, heavy rain and
lightning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Late Thursday into early Friday we expect to see a little more
organized shortwave activity move in from the southwest ahead of an
upper low over northern Mexico. This will likely focus better rain
chances out west across the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau
region. The latest NBM Pops are quite high, but may not be too far
off for the Thursday night into early Friday morning period. Slow-
moving storms and plenty of moisture will likely lead to some heavy
rainfall concerns over the above mentioned areas late Thursday/early
Friday. As the upper low over northern Mexico continues to lift
northward, shortwave activity will help develop additional convection
farther east into the remainder of the region on Friday.

For the weekend, southwest flow aloft continues, but with the main
source for lift to our north, our rain chances will be on the
decrease. We should also see a slow warming trend with temperatures
returning closer to climatological normals for early June. Upper
level ridging is then expected to build across northern Mexico and
Texas leading to mostly dry conditions along with near normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

MVFR and VFR conditions are likely to battle for the next few
hours before VFR cigs persist. Light east to southeast winds are
forecast through the period. New guidance shows less probability
for thunderstorm activity across KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF, therefore,
removed the PROB30 for each site due to low confidence. If any
storm develops closely the airports, likely be mid to late
afternoon and evening. MVFR cigs return to the local area
terminals overnight into Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  72  87  73 /  30  20  30  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  72  87  73 /  30  20  40  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  70  86  71 /  30  40  40  30
Burnet Muni Airport            87  70  84  71 /  20  20  30  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           92  73  89  72 /  40  40  20  70
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  71  86  72 /  20  20  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             88  71  86  72 /  40  30  30  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  71  87  72 /  30  30  40  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  72  86  72 /  40  20  50  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  72  86  73 /  40  30  30  30
Stinson Muni Airport           89  72  87  73 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Platt
LONG TERM....Platt
AVIATION...17