080
FXUS64 KEWX 240527
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Extreme Heat Warning continues Monday for the northern
  Hill Country and Austin area.

- Heat Advisory continues through Wednesday for the Coastal
  Plains, I-35 corridor, and portions of the Hill Country.

- Mostly hot and dry weather throughout the week outside of low
  rain chances Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

There is little sign that the heat will recede substantially in
the coming days. In fact, both LREF and HREF ensemble
distributions indicate that 1000-500mb thicknesses will reach
their maximum today, an indicator that the hot airmass could be at
its most robust. While statistical and consensus aids assess
slightly lower temperatures tomorrow compared to this past
weekend, the recent overperformance of observed temperatures errs
on the side of hotter conditions prevailing. The Extreme Heat
Warning has been extended through 7 PM today to cover the
afternoon heat between Llano and Bastrop counties, including
Austin, where the blended model likelihood of highs exceeding 105F
remains high, above 70 percent. These areas will likely continue
seeing the highest temperatures in South Central Texas, but
potentially hazardous heat will also be widespread elsewhere as
highs continue to reach the triple digits regionwide.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the I-35 corridor, Coastal
Plains, and portions of the Hill Country through Wednesday.
Confidence is lower that the upper echelon of temperatures Tuesday
will be as hot as this past weekend due to slightly higher low-
level dew points given a more southeast mean flow, but the the
difference in heat is minimal. High temperatures Tuesday
throughout South Central Texas will remain above 100F for most
areas without chances for rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

This particular stretch of the ongoing heatwave continues through
at least Wednesday as the mid to upper level ridge stays centered
over New Mexico. The ridge does shift slightly west after midweek
and elongates to the north, which allows the jet stream to bow
more south towards our area. While temperatures remain notably hot
through Wednesday, a minor downward trend in forecast
temperatures is noted during the second half of the week as the
upper-level flow allows the opportunity for more cirriform clouds
to move over the area and abate some of the heat.

Weak disturbances in the flow will mostly serve to bring a few
swaths of increased cloud cover aloft. The moisture supply aloft
isn`t great, but there is some opportunity for one of these
perturbations to bring isolated rains. This would be most favored
Thursday afternoon/evening with consensus emerging for a weak
shortwave to quickly track from the Texas Panhandle to our area
while mid-level temperatures become less restrictive to convective
development. Still, the meager moisture and weak forcing keep
chances generally low and near or below 30 percent for most areas.
Over the weekend, the flow aloft becomes less favorable to
approaching disturbances as the ridge becomes more zonally
diffuse. The core of the hot airmass associated with the ridge is
expected to become displaced a little farther to the northwest.
This suggests temperatures by this upcoming weekend won`t reach
nearly as high as the early week, but highs between the upper 90s
to low 100s will still be likely while the overall pattern holds
dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR flight conditions continue. Skies will remain mostly clear
with at times a few high level clouds passing across the region.
There may also be a few patchy low clouds after sunrise along and
to the east of the I-35 corridor this morning, including around
the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). However, the most
recent short term guidance signals that the low clouds around or
just after the sunrise timeframe may be more prevalent Tuesday
morning compared to this morning. Winds remain of around 10 kts
ore less but the sea breeze after sunset would likely to help to
kick up breezes slightly across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT,
and KSSF) between 02Z and 05Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Record Daily Max Temperatures

       Mon 08/24
AUS    107 (2010)
ATT    107 (2010)
SAT    103 (2010/2013)
DRT    103 (1911/1952/2006/2024)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             106  77 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 105  76 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    103  74 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport           103  74 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          105  77 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport       105  77 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport            102  73 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport       104  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional  104  77 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport      103  75 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          104  75 104  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173-
192-193.

Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
TXZ171>173-192-193.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ191-194-205>209-
220>225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...62