415
FXUS64 KEWX 250753
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
153 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Current surface observations show a strong cold front moving
southward through the Texas Panhandle with some fairly significant
temperature drops noted behind the front. A little closer to home,
light winds are in place for most of south central Texas, except
across the higher terrain of the Hill Country where some
occasionally gusty south winds are noted. With light winds and low-
level moisture already in place, some patchy fog development is
possible this morning, mainly along and east of an Eagle Pass to San
Antonio to Austin line. The above mentioned cold front will make
steady southward progress today, with the leading edge of the
boundary moving into the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and
nearby I-35 corridor around Noon. The cold front continues to move
southward, with most areas seeing a northerly wind shift by late
afternoon. The cold air may lag a bit behind the northerly wind
shift, so highs today will vary quite a bit. Expect highs to occur
during the late morning/early afternoon over the Hill Country and
southern Edwards Plateau, with upper 60s to mid 70s in the forecast.
Elsewhere, highs will range from the upper 70s to upper 80s. With
the front trending a little faster, record highs for Austin appear
safe. Farther to the south and west, San Antonio could get close,
with Del Rio standing the best chance to approach the record. Gusty
north winds and cooler temperatures will fill in behind the front,
with overnight lows dropping into the mid 30s over the Hill Country
to the lower 50s over the Rio Grande plains south of Del Rio.
Northerly winds remain intact for all areas Tuesday morning with
surface high pressure over the region. During the afternoon, lee-
side troughing over eastern New Mexico will allow for a quick
transition to southerly flow by mid-evening. High temperatures on
Tuesday will be close to climatological normals, with mid 60s to
near 70 degrees expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Expect mild temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s Tuesday night
followed by a rapid warm-up and return to highs in the 80s on
Wednesday. South-southwesterly surface flow will increase most over
the eastern CWA, resulting in a warm and dry forecast yet again
Wednesday. Our next front, an even stronger front, will have more
staying power, allowing temperatures to fall for more than just a day
or two. One thing responsible for this series of cold fronts is the
orientation of the mid-level flow, with the jet stream angled
northwest to southeast over south central Texas. This will result in
a dry forecast, but also a cooler forecast through the Thanksgiving
holiday weekend. The strongest front will arrive Thanksgiving
morning, followed by a reinforcing front Saturday night through early
Sunday morning. For now, the primary concern in the long term period
will be much cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday mornings, but
for the most part, despite the temperature whiplash, the forecast
remains rather benign.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period with cirrus streaming into the
region. The exception will be a period of low cloud and fog potential
early Monday morning in a small area around a SAT-HDO line. 00Z HREF
is indicating a 60-90% chance of IFR ceilings developing 10Z-14Z in
this small region. There is also a potential for pockets of LIFR
conditions just to the west and southwest of SAT. The low clouds and
fog are forecast to scatter out after 15Z. A dry cold front is also
forecast to move through the region Monday afternoon and evening. SW
winds develop ahead of the front, turning NW to N behind it, with
some N wind gusts 20-30 KT developing Monday evening through portions
of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal PLains.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 122 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

          November 25             November 27
Location           Record Maximum (Year)  Record Maximum (Year)

Austin Camp Mabry       88 (2019)               85 (1925)
Austin Bergstrom        85 (1967)               87 (2005)
Del Rio                 88 (1942)               87 (2005)
San Antonio             86 (1942)               90 (2005)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  44  69  56 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  82  43  69  55 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     84  45  71  56 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  39  67  55 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           86  49  69  53 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  41  67  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             83  47  69  53 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        83  44  70  55 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  45  70  55 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  47  70  58 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           85  49  70  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Platt