668
FXUS64 KEWX 161837
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
137 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

-Periods of intense rain rates and compounding effects from multiple
rounds of storms is resulting in a dangerous flash flood threat that
continues through Friday, particularly over the Hill Country,
southern Edwards Plateau and portions of the Rio Grande Plains.

- Considerable to locally catastrophic impacts from flash flooding
and river flooding ongoing.

-Moderate to major flooding ongoing/forecast for the Pedernales,
 Frio, Medina, Guadalupe, San Antonio, and Nueces River Basins.

- Heed instructions from local officials and be prepared to seek
  higher ground if necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Significant flash flooding and river flooding is ongoing across a
large portion of South Central Texas as heavy rain with with locally
intense rainfall rates continues today. Considerable to locally
catastrophic flash flooding along the U.S. 90 corridor west of San
Antonio including the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and
western Hill Country is ongoing in addition to mainstem river
flooding in a majority of river basins with impacts from floodwater
moving downstream. The Flood Watch has been extended in time through
Friday morning for the Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains and southern
Edwards Plateau as additional pockets of heavy rain are forecast
tonight. With the heavy rain threat shifting west, the Flash Flood
Watch along the I-35 corridor has been cancelled.

While there may be a somewhat lull in activity this afternoon and
evening, some redevelopment tonight is expected with additional
pockets of rain up to around 8 inches possible favored over some of
the already hardest hit areas over the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio
Grande Plains possibly into the portions of the western Hill
Country. Models do indicate that activity may be more scattered
than previous nights, though any additional rainfall will
exacerbate the ongoing flooding. Because of how saturated soils
are, even rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour will be sufficient to
trigger flash flooding that will again rapidly accumulate into
creeks, rivers and arroyos across the area.

There should be a decline in activity Friday as the mid-level trough
in West Texas weakens. However, elevated moisture will still linger
over the area Friday so at least some additional activity,
particularly over our far western counties cannot be ruled out
during the day or overnight into Saturday morning.

Safety messaging:

Rivers, creeks, and arroyos can rise suddenly and rapidly! Locally
dry conditions near creeks and rivers should not be treated as a
guarantee of your safety! Normally dry areas can flood in these
conditions. Heed warnings, instructions from local and county
officials, and avoid unnecessary travel. Flash flooding can be
impossible to spot at night. Avoid flooded roadways. Conditions can
change drastically and suddenly. Have multiple reliable ways to
receive warnings and information from local/state officials both in
the daytime and at night. If you are in a low-lying location or near
a stream, have a plan and have a route to reach higher ground if
needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Drier and warmer conditions return this weekend into early next
week. High temperatures steadily climb back into the 90s for almost
all of South Central Texas by Tuesday as a mid-level ridge builds
over the area. Heat index values will be around 100 to 105 degrees
for a majority of locations next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Ceilings have been gradually improving this afternoon, however SCT MVFR
will likely remain through the early evening. VCSH remains and brief
flight restrictions remain possible if a heavy shower or isolated
thunderstorm passes over or nearby a terminal. Guidance suggests prevailing
MVFR ceilings overnight into early Friday morning. Generally SE winds
through the evening becoming SSE on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  75  91  76 /  50  30   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  88  75  91  76 /  40  20   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  74  90  75 /  40  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            86  72  88  73 /  60  50  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           86  73  88  75 /  90  80  40  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  73  90  75 /  50  40   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             85  73  88  74 /  50  60  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        88  74  90  75 /  40  20  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  75  91  76 /  20  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  75  89  76 /  50  40   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           87  75  90  76 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ171-183>190-202>204-
217>219-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...27