Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
671 FXUS64 KEWX 021815 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 115 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry weather continues through the work week. - Rain chances return this weekend and early next week with some potential for locally heavy rain. Continue to monitor the forecast. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... Dry and warm conditions are forecast in the short term period under northerly flow aloft. Dry mid-level air continues to filter in from the north today overspreading the area by Wednesday with weak northerly flow expected at the surface. Mostly sunny conditions are expected this afternoon with increased cloud cover tonight into tomorrow morning associated with some moisture moving over the area at 700mb. Afternoon highs should top out in the 90s today with lows from the upper 60s to mid 70s tonight. Lower dewpoints will allow for cooler low temperatures early Thursday morning from the low 60s over portions of the the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country to the low 70s near the Rio Grande. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... Hot and dry conditions continue Thursday and Friday under mid-level ridging over Texas. Southerly low level wind returns late week with highs returning into the triple digits for a majority of the area Thursday with only slightly cooler temperatures Friday due to increased cloud cover. A pattern change is in store for the weekend with models showing our ridging breaking down and a trough moving over the southern Plains sometime this weekend or early next week. The latest GFS continues to show the newly formed Tropical Storm Lorena making a turn northeast Friday into the weekend being ingested into the main flow and moving over Texas. Other models still bring high precipitable water values to the area during this time increasing confidence for rain chances this weekend with the highest chances over South Central Texas Sunday and Monday. It is still too early to talk about rainfall amounts, but the potential for heavy rainfall does appear to be present and will have to closely monitor trends the next few days. Increased cloud cover and rain chances this weekend into early next week bring temperatures closer to seasonable levels. && .AVIATION (18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... VFR flying conditions prevail through the period under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with mix of low and mid to high level cloud cover. The winds continue of around 12 kts or less in the daylight hours from generally the north-northeast while light and variable conditions occur from the overnight into the early morning time frame. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 97 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 97 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 99 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 71 92 66 97 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 99 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 94 65 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 72 98 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 99 67 102 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 96 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 98 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 99 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM...27 AVIATION...62