369
FXUS64 KEWX 240016
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
716 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 712 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Extreme Heat Warning continues Monday for the northern Hill
  Country and Austin area.

- Heat Advisory continues through Wednesday for the Coastal
  Plains, I-35 corridor, and portions of the Hill Country.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Due to increased confidence in similarly hot conditions continuing
Monday afternoon, the Extreme Heat Warning was extended in part
for Bastrop, Burnet, Llano, Travis, and Williamson counties
through 7 PM CDT Monday. Temperatures up to 107F are again
forecast Monday afternoon for these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The heat will continue to be the main focus through mid-week as
temperatures remain above normal. A strong ridge of high pressure
remains centered over the southern Rocky Mountains and this will
be the main influencer of our weather pattern. The Extreme Heat
Warning for the northern Hill Country, Austin area and southward
into the Coastal plains will remain in effect until 7 PM CDT
Sunday. A Heat Advisory also continues today for portions of the
Hill Country, I-35 Corridor and Coastal plains. Highs are still on
track to top out in the 103 to 107 degree range for areas under
the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory.

For Monday (through Wednesday), we will continue the current Heat
Advisory for portions of the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and
Coastal Plains. While a few spots may approach 105 degrees (mainly
northern Hill Country to near Austin), confidence is not quite
high enough to go with another Extreme Heat Warning at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The above mentioned ridge of high pressure will continue to remain
the dominant weather feature through much of this week. There are
some indications that convection to our north could send a weak
outflow boundary southward late Wednesday. Confidence is low, but
we will monitor as the boundary may allow a surface focus for
convective initiation. In addition, models generally show a decent
signal for an increase in mid and upper level cloud cover
Wednesday into Thursday as the mid-level flow briefly trends back
to a northwesterly direction. Weak disturbances embedded in
northwest flow aloft always bear watching and for now we will keep
some low rain chances (20-30%) in the forecast Thursday afternoon
and evening across the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor from
near San Marcos northward. Some low rain chances for the same
areas could linger into Friday, but overall confidence in this is
rather low.

Late in the forecast period, the flow aloft should trend back to a
more north to northeasterly direction, which typically does not
favor any rainfall chances. Temperatures will remain well above
normal through the period and additional heat headlines will be
our main concern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all local terminals through Monday
night. Southerly winds prevail through the period with speeds
around 5 to 10 knots with occasional higher gusts during the
daytime hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79 106  77 105 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77 105  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            76 103  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 105  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        78 105  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74 102  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75 104  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76 104  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76 103  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           75 104  76 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ171>173-192-
193.

Heat Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
TXZ171>173-192-193.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ191-194-205>209-
220>225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...17