Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
699 FXUS64 KEWX 041758 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1158 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather with a warming trend continues with daytime high temperatures rising well above average by the end of the week. - Dry cold front this weekend bringing cooler temperatures early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1154 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 An upper-tropospheric trough axis can be seen moving into our area on water vapor imagery, but is bereft of any moisture and will cross the remainder of South-Central Texas uneventfully tonight through tomorrow. Steady low-level flow is helping to provide incremental increases in moisture each day, so expect a cloudier pre-dawn Wednesday morning with low stratus and some patchy fog in areas where winds are calmer. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 50s. A thermal ridge starts to set up along Interstate 20 to our northwest on Wednesday. This will help raise highs on a sunny Wednesday afternoon into the 80s throughout the region with mid-80s in river valleys and lower lying plains with greater subsidence. Expect temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning to be another notch warmer as airmass modification continues, with mid to upper 50s for lows forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1154 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 Clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures are forecast to continue through the weekend. Outside of the typical low-level moisture and various fits of cirrus high aloft, the deep atmosphere should remain noticeably dry with average relative humidities in the mid-troposphere of around 20 percent or less. A weak shortwave trough moving across North Texas on Thursday and a stronger but more distant trough farther north on Thursday/Friday will slightly boost southerly to southwesterly winds over South-Central Texas and enhance another thermal ridge over our area. Friday is favored to be the warmest day of the period with the low-level thermal ridge axis draped over the region. High temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s are forecast Friday, which could challenge daily record highs. Saturday could be similarly warm, depending on the timing of the cold front described in the next paragraph. Changes are afoot heading into next week. Longwave troughing over the eastern US is forecast to amplify over the weekend with strong agreement in ensemble guidance. This will set up northerly flow on the upstream side of the trough from Canadian Shield southward across the Great Plains to Texas, providing a favorable pattern to send a dry cold front across our area late Saturday or early Sunday. The aligned and strong deep-layer momentum will likely make for a breezy Sunday behind the front. While the bulk of the coldest air will be towards our east, highs are forecast to drop from the well- above temperatures of late-week to below-average temperatures early next week. Highs following the passage of the cold front could reach the 60s with lows in the 30s for much of the region. This period of cool weather may be relatively brief as the polar airmass continues eastward with a ridge establishing over the southwestern US by about Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 VFR conditions are in store at area TAF sites through the current forecast period. South to southeast winds will be occasionally gusty today as clear skies continue. Winds should ease around 00Z and generally remain from the south to southeast overnight. Some patchy fog along I-35 is possible Wednesday morning, but confidence is too low to mention in the forecast at this time. Gusty south winds look to return to most areas Wednesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 56 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 53 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 54 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 54 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 54 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 54 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 53 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 54 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 54 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 56 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 57 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...Platt