222
FXUS64 KEWX 040642
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
142 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash flooding from slow moving storms are possible this morning.
  A Flood Watch is in effect for the Edwards Plateau, the Hill
  Country, and Bexar County.

- Locally heavy rainfall is possible from scattered to widespread
  showers and thunderstorms this morning. The greatest potential is
  across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country.

- Continued unseasonably wet and "cool" for the Independence Day
  weekend with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds possible.

- Turning seasonably drier and warmer next week.

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Showers and isolated thunderstorms with pockets of heavy rain are
ongoing over much of South Central Texas early this morning. This is
due to forcing from a mid level trough over the Edwards Plateau
interacting with an unseasonably moist airmass with PWs of 1.8 to 2.4
inches. The 2.34 inches seen on the 04/00Z Del Rio sounding is at
the climatological maximum for this time of year. Rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches can be expected with isolated totals of 5 to 7 inches
possible. Instantaneous rainfall rates up to 5 inches per hour are
possible. The favored areas are across the Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country, as well as Bexar County where a Flood Watch is in effect.
These rains will continue through this morning and have extended the
Flood Watch through 18z for those areas.

The mid level feature and unseasonably moist airmass linger and will
generate isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon through Saturday, though activity will wane, at times.
Some models indicate a potential for additional heavy rains tonight
into Saturday. Another Flood Watch may have to be issued. Due to the
clouds and rain, below to well below average temperatures continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The mid level feature lingers into Sunday. Although, moisture levels
decrease as some Subtropical Ridging begins to build over our area,
they remain elevated to allow for isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The favored areas are the Hill Country to
the Rio Grande Plains. The Subtropical Ridge builds more fully over
our area next week, however the mid level feature may linger.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms wane as the airmass dries under
increasing subsidence. The only rain chances will be with the
seabreeze near the Coastal Plains each afternoon. However, should a
stronger mid level feature linger, then rain chances will extend to
other parts of our area. Increased sunshine leads to temperatures
warming to near to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Concerns for SHRA/TSRA continue overnight. However a very tricky
forecast this period with somewhat low confidence remains. Continued
mention of -RA until 07Z for KSSF and KSAT and 08Z for KAUS as
models continue to highlight SHRA/TSRA possibilities. Low cloud
development will lead to TEMPO IFR conditions at KSAT and KSSF
Friday morning. Have added PROB30 for KAUS based on recent Hi-res
model data coming in for 17Z to 20Z for TSRA Friday afternoon. Prevailing
IFR is expected at KDRT. Regarding DRT have added in PROB30 for
21Z-00Z based off incoming model data and trends. Towards the end of
the forecast period models are hinting at the possibility of storms
developing overnight for KAUS and KSAT but due to low confidence have
kept the mention out of TAFS for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              87  75  91  74 /  50  20  30  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  87  76  90  73 /  50  20  30  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  75  89  73 /  40  20  30  10
Burnet Muni Airport            83  73  87  71 /  60  20  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           91  76  95  75 /  30  10  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        84  75  89  73 /  50  20  30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             84  74  87  73 /  50  20  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  75  88  73 /  40  20  30  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  76  93  73 /  30  20  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  76  87  75 /  40  20  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           89  76  89  75 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-
Burnet-Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Medina-Real-
Uvalde.

&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...CJM