481
FXUS64 KEWX 231805 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
105 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Major to moderate flooding will continue along the Nueces at and below
  Asherton through the end of the week.

- A Heat Advisory continues for all of South-Central Texas through
  8 PM.

- A sheared and weakening Tropical Storm Bertha moves west over
  the northwestern Gulf and approaches the middle to upper Texas
  coast today.

- Scattered tropical downpours and a storm or two favors areas
  along and south of the I-10/Highway 90 corridor. The most rain
  associated with Bertha remains farther to the south. Gusts up to
  30 mph are possible tonight into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Hot conditions continue today mainly due to elevated heat index
values surging from 105 up to 113 across a majority of South Central
Texas. While some high clouds associated with a weakening Tropical
Storm Bertha are making their way over the area, little relief is
expected associated with clouds and a Heat Advisory remains in
effect through 8 PM tonight.

Bertha will continue to move westward today moving over the Texas
coast later this afternoon. As its circulation continues inland
towards our area, further weakening is expected with the NHC
predicting it will be a weak remnant low or dissipate entirely by
Friday morning. Northerly wind shear is keeping a majority of the
thunderstorms and in turn, heavy rain, south of the main
circulation. This is expected to continue as it moves into our area
though some showers or spotty tropical downpours cannot be ruled out
tonight into Friday morning, mainly favored south of I-10 and the US
Highway 90 corridors. Flooding concerns remain low as overall rain
amounts should be around a quarter of an inch or less, though any
thunderstorms may produce an isolated 2 inches. Additionally, some
gusty winds to around 30 mph cannot be ruled out tonight into Friday
in the eastern half of the forecast area before this tropical
system falls apart.

Clearing skies and hot conditions continue for Friday, though our
temperatures do decrease by roughly 5 degrees. Heat indices will
still be elevated for the afternoon with much of the area seeing
values in the 100 to 105 degrees range which is below Heat Advisory
criteria. Breezy southerly flow in the afternoon will become lighter
by Friday evening. Warm lows in the 70s are expected as we head into
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Mid-level ridging will dominate much of the Central and Western US
through the long term period keeping South-Central Texas seasonably
hot and dry. With a drier airmass in place over the region, skies
will are forecast to partly cloudy to mostly sunny each day through
late next week with a light to moderate south-southeasterly wind.
Widespread highs will mainly be in the mid and upper 90s this
weekend, then begin to creep up heading into next week. Heat indices
will still be in the 100 to 105 degree range for many through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon as high clouds
increase ahead of T.S. Bertha. We also expect to see some gusty
northeast winds develop along I-35 for the afternoon and early
evening hours. Low clouds will develop by mid-evening, with MVFR
expected for the I-35 sites after 05Z. We can`t rule out a stray
shower or storm through the overnight hours along I-35. However,
confidence is low and will not mention in the current forecast. Low
clouds are expected to reach DRT around 11Z. MVFR clouds are likely
to remain intact through the morning hours, then cloud bases trend
back to VFR in the early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  79  95  77 /   0  30  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  99  79  95  77 /   0  40  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  78  95  76 /   0  50  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            98  78  93  73 /   0  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  80  95  77 /  10   0  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  79  95  76 /   0  20  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport            101  78  93  75 /   0  30  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        99  78  95  76 /   0  40  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   99  78  96  76 /   0  50  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  79  94  77 /   0  40  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport          100  79  95  77 /   0  50  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173-183>194-
202>209-217>225-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...Platt