371
FXUS64 KEWX 171746
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1246 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, humid conditions expected today with highs in the upper 90s
  to 103 and heat indices of 103-108.

- Increasingly active storm track expected Monday through the
  remainder of the long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Morning satellite imagery shows an elongated 500mb high located from
Missouri southwest through northeast Texas. At the surface,
dewpoints are in the lower to middle 70s. As air temperatures are
expected to climb slightly higher than the last couple of days, heat
indices may be a bit more elevated this afternoon. Heat Advisories
were considered, but ultimately, feel that this type of heat is
rather typical for mid-August and it`s somewhat borderline for
criteria. Heat indices will reach the 103-108 range, particularly
along the I-35 Corridor and points east into the Coastal Plains.
Some of the hi-res CAMs do spark off a stray shower or storm this
afternoon over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor, but chances are
quite low, less than 10%. Ridging will begin moving westward on
Monday, centering over the Four Corners by Monday evening. This
should start to open the door to more easterly and southeasterly
surface flow long with northeasterly flow aloft. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, particularly east of I-35 on Monday
afternoon and evening, where activity over the Brazos Valley may
work west-southwest into our region by late afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

An active stretch of weather is expected through the long term
forecast period. As mid-level ridging sets up shop over the Four
Corners, that`ll open up the door for higher PWATs to work into
South Central Texas Tuesday and beyond, with Wednesday-Friday
looking like the most active days weather-wise. Favorable steering
flow in the mid-levels along with increasing PWATs between 1.5-2.0
inches through mid to late week will result in daily rain chances.
As is typical of higher PWAT environments, locally heavy downpours
are expected with efficient rainfall rates. A weak cold front may
also work into the region late week, which would act as a focusing
mechanism for shower and thunderstorm development. Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall are the primary concerns. Temperatures will
cool slightly Thursday and beyond as increased cloud cover and rain
chances should keep afternoon temperatures down a bit. WPC does have
a day 4 and 5 Marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall over a good chunk
of our area, so the risk for flooding is there given the environment.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR conditions generally prevail through the TAF period with few to
sct cloud coverage. A few short term models are indicating a stray
shower or two across the region between 22Z and 02Z. Coverage and
confidence is too low to mention within this set of TAFs. Breezes
will remain light to occasionally moderate from the south-southeast
to east-southeast through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78 102  77 100 /  10  20  10  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76 101  77 100 /  10  20  10  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74 100  74  99 /   0  10  10  40
Burnet Muni Airport            75  98  75  97 /  10  20  10  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 103  79 102 /   0   0   0  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        76 101  77 100 /  10  20  10  30
Hondo Muni Airport             73 100  75 100 /   0   0  10  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        75 101  73 100 /   0  10  10  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  99  76  97 /  10  20  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  99  78  99 /   0  10  10  40
Stinson Muni Airport           77 102  77 101 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...62