802
FXUS64 KEWX 121958
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
258 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence increasing for a heavy rain threat this weekend, Flood
Watch in effect through 7 PM Sunday evening.

- Level 2 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall for today and tomorrow.

- Chances highest across portions of Central Texas, including the
Austin metro, the Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and Val
Verde County.

- Trending drier mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Current radar trends early this afternoon seem to suggest the
seabreeze coastal showers are in full effect. With a secondary
complex of storms moving into Val Verde and Edwards counties. Expect
this trend to continue as daytime heating combined with abundant
moisture (PWATS 1.7-2.0) could lead to pockets of heavier rainfall
in any cells that could last long enough. The main show however is
still over West TX where a storm complex sparked off by a weak upper
level trough will push across the area. This complex is expected to
reach our area late this evening into the overnight hours.
Unfortunately Hi-res models continue to vary considerably in the
placement/location of where the heavier rainfall could occur. What
we do know is heavy rain is likely to fall somewhere over the
Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Expect to see this system
continue to move across the area during the day Sunday and likely
ending for most areas with the exception of the Southern Edwards
Plateau by Sunday evening.

Due to recent heavy rainfall this past week most soils continue to
remain saturated and any additional rainfall could lead to rapid
runoff and rises in rivers and creeks. Additionally, WPC has
expended the Slight(level 2 of 4) risk across mainly the Southern
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country with a continued marginal (level 1
of 4) risk for these same areas for Sunday. As such, we have issued
a Flood Watch for areas along and west of I-35 and the U.S 90
corridors including both San Antonio and Austin Metro areas until
7PM Sunday evening. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated
amounts near 6 inches are possible somewhere in the watch area.
Hopefully as new Hi-res model data comes in we can get a better
grasp on the finer details of this system and eventually the
placement of where the heavier rainfall may occur. Continue to check
back for future forecasts as details continue to get ironed out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

By Monday the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms shift to
the western Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande
Plains. This is where the greatest moisture levels and forcing is
forecast. However, the seabreeze could generate some showers and
thunderstorms from the Coastal Plains to near I-35. Rain chances
continue to drop throughout the week as drier mid-level air along
with slightly below normal PWATS moves into the area. Additionally,
there is the possibility of another round of Saharan dust arriving
by mid week though this isnt expected to have much impact for us here
locally. Lastly, because we start drying out our daily high
temperatures are likely to climb each day into next weekend with many
locations reaching the upper 90s bringing the return of heat indices
into triple digits.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The main challenge for this forecast cycle will be the timing of
convection through the afternoon and evening hours. We will continue
to mention a PROB30 group at AUS for the late afternoon hours. We
have kept convection out of SAT and SSF, but depending on what
occurs over the Hill Country, we may need to add a mention of TSRA
during the late evening hours. Out west at DRT, will also keep a
mention of TSRA this evening as storms move in from the northwest.
Low cloud development is anticipated early Sunday morning and will
keep MVFR clouds in the forecast for all TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  76  93  75 /  30  20  40  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  75  93  75 /  30  20  40  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  75  94  74 /  30  10  30  10
Burnet Muni Airport            91  74  89  72 /  30  20  50  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  76  96  77 /   0  20  30  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  75  92  74 /  40  20  40  10
Hondo Muni Airport             93  75  93  74 /  10  10  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  75  94  74 /  30  20  30  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  75  92  75 /  40  20  30   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  77  93  76 /  30  10  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           96  77  96  76 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-
Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Medina-Real-
Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...CJM
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...Platt