405
FXUS64 KEWX 261129 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
629 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chances (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms this
  weekend with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds possible.

- Nearly seasonable late July-early August temperatures/heat indices

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The low pressure system we have been tracking for the last few days
has moved onshore ending the possibility of tropical cyclone
development. However, the system will move west over southern Texas
and northern Mexico this weekend bringing an unseasonably moist
airmass with PWs above 2 inches. This weekend will feature a pattern
of showers and thunderstorm blossoming during the daytime hours with
heating, then waning over most areas at night with loss of heating.
Although, widespread heavy rains are not expected due to lack of
focus mechanisms and faster storm motions, locally heavy rains up to
3 inches are possible due to efficient rainfall processes. Of note,
a limited number of models show potentially heavier rains lingering
into the overnight hours. However, they differ greatly on location.
The main flood threats are slight rises on small streams and ponding
of water in areas with poor drainage. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are
possible with the moist tropical rains. The clouds and rain will
keep daytime temperatures below seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The Subtropical Ridge quickly rebuilds over our area on Monday with
a drier and subsident airmass taking hold. The Ridge persists over
our area through much of the week keeping rain out of the forecast.
However, there may be deep enough moisture lingering on Monday for a
few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm near the Coastal Plains with
the seabreeze Monday afternoon. Warmer, though nearly seasonable,
daytime temperatures with slightly elevated heat indices prevail.
Another inverted upper level trough moves over our area sometime late
next week or next weekend depending on the model or ensemble. Will
maintain the slight chances for showers and thunderstorms for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Forecast is on track this morning as mid level clouds push west of
the I-35 Corridor, low stratus have filled in at SSF and are expected
to try and fill in at SAT and AUS as well. It looks to be a brief
window of MVFR followed by improvement to VFR after 14Z. PROB30s were
utilized for the threat of -TSRA this afternoon and early evening
follow by a return to MVFR ceilings late tonight after 09Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  77  95  76 /  30  10  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  77  95  76 /  30  10  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  76  95  75 /  30  10  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            91  76  92  74 /  30  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  78  96  77 /  10  20  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  76  95  75 /  30  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  75  94  75 /  30  20  20   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  76  95  75 /  30  10  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  76  94  75 /  40  10  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  78  95  77 /  30  20  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  78  97  77 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...MMM