668
FXUS64 KEWX 221044
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
544 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Major to moderate flooding will continue on the Nueces through the
remainder of the week while the remainder of the rivers will
continue to improve.

- Heat Advisory goes into effect on Wednesday for areas generally
along and east of the I-35 corridor.

- We will continue to watch Tropical Storm Bertha as it moves
  through the Gulf for any impacts it could have on our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

As mentioned in previous discussions, today will easily be the
hottest day of the week, with afternoon temperatures climbing into
upper 90s to lower 100s across the region. The hottest of these
temperatures will be felt across the Rio Grande Plains and areas
along and east of the I-35 corridor. With some higher moisture
amounts across the area today, and winds expected to be a little
lighter, which will reduce the amount of afternoon mixing, a Heat
Advisory has been issued for Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures in
these areas will range from the 100 to 104 degree range, and heat
index values will reach up to around 114 degrees. While the
remainder of the area will still be hot, they should remain below
our Heat Advisory criteria for today anyways. In general, dry
conditions are forecast for today, however, a few convective
outflows from a near stationary front over north Texas could get
into our northern part of the Hill Country and over portions along
and east of Highway 77. Therefore, added a 10 percent chance of rain
over those areas. If storms develop and make it, can`t rule out
heavy downpours and strong wind gusts.

Thursday will be more borderline in terms of reaching Heat Advisory
criteria as afternoon highs will be slightly lower than today, but
heat index values will still climb towards the 108 degree threshold.
The entire area will remain dry for today, and while most of the
area will be dry on Thursday, we will start to see some
precipitation chances return for the Coastal Plains by Thursday
afternoon in association with Tropical Storm Bertha. Still some
uncertainty on how much of a direct impact this storm will have
across our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Rain chances increase some heading into Thursday night, mainly for
areas east of I-35 and south of I-10 with only some very low end
chances lingering into Friday. Things will generally dry out for the
rest of the coming weekend and into the start of next week. In
addition, the actual path that Tropical Storm Bertha decided to take
could impact the weather for Friday and into the weekend, which we
will continue to monitor. Right now models continue to limit how
much precipitation we will see across our area. Post Bertha,
temperatures will remain hot, and slowly increase with 100 degree
temperatures filtering back into the area by the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the local area terminals through
this cycle. Light and variable winds through the morning then
east to southeast around 10 knots or less and then flow returns to
light and variable this evening into the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             103  84 100  81 /   0  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 102  84  99  81 /   0  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    102  83 100  80 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport           102  81  98  78 /   0  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport       102  82  99  80 /  10  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             99  81  99  79 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport       102  83  99  79 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional  104  83 100  80 /   0  10   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport      101  84  99  81 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport          101  84 100  81 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ171>173-191>194-204>209-219>225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17