358
FXUS64 KEWX 061758
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1258 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Low (15-25%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Labor Day


- Daily sea breeze thunderstorm chances in the Coastal Plains
  through much of next week

- Above average temperatures through the week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Upper air analysis this morning shows a large amplitude ridge
stretching from West Texas to MN. A weak disturbance over the
northwestern Gulf is generating showers and thunderstorms from the
TX coast to the Hill Country. Storm coverage over our CWA is
isolated at this time. The mid to upper ridge will continue its
slow shift to the east through the short term period, but still
dominate over Texas. By the start of this period, this evening,
any afternoon convection should be coming to an end leaving the
area dry overnight. The weak disturbance from the Gulf will be
dissipating over the state Monday, but will still generate
isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Hill Country.
Temperatures will be above normal. Highs Monday will be about five
degrees warmer than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The strong upper ridge will break down over the northern part of
the country, but continue to control the weather over the southern
states. Southeasterly low level flow will keep hot, moist air over
South-Central Texas. There may be some seabreeze convection each
day Tuesday through Thursday over the Coastal Plains, but chances
are low. Most of the area will be hot and dry. Temperatures will
be steady and above normal through the week. The NBM is showing
higher humidity into the week, but it has tended to run moist in
the medium term. The forecast higher dewpoints have not developed.
However, if the higher dewpoints verify we will reach Heat
Advisory criteria over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor by
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR skies are forecast through the period in part due to a weak
disturbance passing east to west over the area and bringing a round
of mid to higher level clouds. A wave of deep convection is aligned
E-W roughly along HWY 290 and will impact the AUS area through
around 22Z and should impact the SAT/SSF locations from 20Z to 00Z
Monday. Not many model solutions keep this instability intact by the
time the feature reaches the Rio Grande, so will keep DRT with no
convection mentioned. Light winds will follow the usual diurnal
fluctuations, but will generally show a more easterly direction due
to the disturbance passing overhead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  78 100 /   0  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  99  77 100 /   0  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  98  76  99 /  10  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  96  75  97 /  10  10   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  98  77  99 /   0  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  97  77  99 /  10  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  97  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  99  76 100 /  10  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  98  77  99 /  10  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  98  78  99 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78 100  78 100 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...18