268
FXUS64 KEWX 242359
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
559 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm conditions Monday and Wednesday, with a temporary shot of
  cooler air Monday night through Tuesday night behind a first cold
  front.

- A second, stronger cold front arrives late Wednesday night into
  early Thanksgiving morning. Colder temperatures then persist
  Thanksgiving Day through next weekend.

- Dry conditions will also persist through the next week.


.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Breezy southerly wind and unseasonably warm temperatures are seen
this afternoon under mostly clear skies. While highs won`t be record
breaking, they will only be 2 to 4 degrees away for a few locations.
Southerly flow will continue warm and humid conditions tonight with
lows from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

A surface low over the Central Plains will bring an associated cold
front across South Central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Ahead
of this feature, more humid and warm conditions will be seen with a
few locations rivaling daily record high temperatures. The front
will be on the doorstep of the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill
County, and northern I-35 corridor as early as noon tomorrow,
eventually moving across all of the area by late Monday evening.
Highs may peak in the most northern portions of our CWA in the early
afternoon before cooler and drier air filter in from the north. No
precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. Lows will be as
much as 10-20 degrees colder Monday night than those seen tonight.
In the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, lows will
generally be in the low 40s although some locations may dip into mid
to upper 30s. Elsewhere, the mid 40s to mid 50s will be more common.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Cooler conditions are forecast Tuesday as northerly post-frontal
winds persist into the afternoon. Daytime highs will trend mainly
from the 60s into the low 70s. This cooler airmass will be short
lived as the flow quickly turns southerly entering Tuesday evening
as surface low pressure develops into Oklahoma. These winds then
increase from the south to southwest into Wednesday. The breezy
south to southwesterly flow will result in much warmer and more
humid conditions across the region from Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Camp Mabry could threaten it`s daily record high while the
record highs at the remaining climate sites looks to stay more
safe.

The next cold front advances across the region from the overnight
Wednesday night through early Thanksgiving morning. Temperatures
turn much cooler with breezy northerly winds in the wake of the
front. Some locations could record the high temperature in the
overnight/early morning hours with temperatures then falling
throughout the day. Temperatures turn quite chilly Thanksgiving
night and the cooler than average weather continues through Black
Friday where daytime highs are forecast to top out only in the 50s
and low to mid 60s. The temperatures modify slightly Friday night
into Saturday as the winds could briefly turn east-southeasterly
before another cold front then arrives sometime Saturday into
Saturday night, helping to reinforce and prolong the cooler than
average weather regime across the region.

As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, one unfortunate
part of this forecast is the lack of rain, but we have known for a
little while now that a warmer and drier fall, along with similar
conditions for the Winter months, would be the most likely outcome.
This lack of rainfall will continue to worsen our short and long
term drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period with cirrus streaming into the
region. The exception will be a period of low cloud and fog potential
early Monday morning around and just south of SAT-HDO. HREF is
indicating a high chance (60-90%) of IFR ceilings developing 10Z-13Z
in this region. There is also a potential for LIFR conditions just
to the southwest of SAT. The low clouds and fog are forecast to
scatter out after 15Z. A dry cold front is also forecast to move
through the region Monday afternoon and evening. SW winds develop
ahead of the front, turning NW to N behind it.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 122 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

          November 25             November 27
Location           Record Maximum (Year)  Record Maximum (Year)

Austin Camp Mabry       88 (2019)               85 (1925)
Austin Bergstrom        85 (1967)               87 (2005)
Del Rio                 88 (1942)               87 (2005)
San Antonio             86 (1942)               90 (2005)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  62  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  83  61  84  45 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  60  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            79  58  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           81  57  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  61  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             83  56  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  60  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   83  63  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  61  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           83  61  84  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...76