735
FXUS64 KEWX 122333
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
633 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence increasing for a heavy rain threat this weekend, Flood
Watch in effect through 7 PM Sunday evening.

- Level 2 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall for today and tomorrow.

- Chances highest across portions of Central Texas, including the
Austin metro, the Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and Val
Verde County.

- Trending drier mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Current radar trends early this afternoon seem to suggest the
seabreeze coastal showers are in full effect. With a secondary
complex of storms moving into Val Verde and Edwards counties. Expect
this trend to continue as daytime heating combined with abundant
moisture (PWATS 1.7-2.0) could lead to pockets of heavier rainfall
in any cells that could last long enough. The main show however is
still over West TX where a storm complex sparked off by a weak upper
level trough will push across the area. This complex is expected to
reach our area late this evening into the overnight hours.
Unfortunately Hi-res models continue to vary considerably in the
placement/location of where the heavier rainfall could occur. What
we do know is heavy rain is likely to fall somewhere over the
Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Expect to see this system
continue to move across the area during the day Sunday and likely
ending for most areas with the exception of the Southern Edwards
Plateau by Sunday evening.

Due to recent heavy rainfall this past week most soils continue to
remain saturated and any additional rainfall could lead to rapid
runoff and rises in rivers and creeks. Additionally, WPC has
expended the Slight(level 2 of 4) risk across mainly the Southern
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country with a continued marginal (level 1
of 4) risk for these same areas for Sunday. As such, we have issued
a Flood Watch for areas along and west of I-35 and the U.S 90
corridors including both San Antonio and Austin Metro areas until
7PM Sunday evening. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated
amounts near 6 inches are possible somewhere in the watch area.
Hopefully as new Hi-res model data comes in we can get a better
grasp on the finer details of this system and eventually the
placement of where the heavier rainfall may occur. Continue to check
back for future forecasts as details continue to get ironed out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

By Monday the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms shift to
the western Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande
Plains. This is where the greatest moisture levels and forcing is
forecast. However, the seabreeze could generate some showers and
thunderstorms from the Coastal Plains to near I-35. Rain chances
continue to drop throughout the week as drier mid-level air along
with slightly below normal PWATS moves into the area. Additionally,
there is the possibility of another round of Saharan dust arriving
by mid week though this isnt expected to have much impact for us here
locally. Lastly, because we start drying out our daily high
temperatures are likely to climb each day into next weekend with many
locations reaching the upper 90s bringing the return of heat indices
into triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Some SHRA generally along a KLZZ to KSAT to KPEZ line will linger for
a few hours this evening and have VCSH mention at the I-35 sites
through 03Z. There are chances of SHRA/TSRA overnight through Sunday
evening. Have VCSH much of Sunday with PROB30s TSRA 13/18Z-14/03Z
when the highest chances are expected. Otherwise, the flying pattern
remains the same with VFR midday through evening and MVFR overnight
through morning. However, brief lowering of CIGs/VSBYs is expected in
SHRA/TSRA. Similar winds with S to SE prevailing and gustiness
during the daytime through evening and near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  94  75  94 /  20  40  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  93  75  94 /  20  40  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  94  74  94 /  10  30  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            73  89  72  91 /  30  50  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  96  77  96 /  30  30  30  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  92  74  93 /  20  50  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75  93  74  94 /  10  40  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  94  74  94 /  20  40  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  92  75  92 /  20  30   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  93  76  94 /  10  30  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           77  96  76  97 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-
Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Medina-Real-
Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...CJM
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...04