676
FXUS64 KEWX 242256
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
556 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid with elevated heat index values

- Returning rain/storm chances Sunday night across western areas
with a few strong to severe storms possible

Shortwave mid-level ridging is settled in place across the region
today but shifts eastward in favor of west-southwesterly flow as we
go from Sunday into Sunday night. The ridging over the area will
keep the forecast hot and rain free across the majority of the
region through Sunday. The only exception could be a stray shower
across our far eastern-southeastern most areas, like in Lavaca
county, as seen late this morning. Isolated thunderstorms may also
fire across Mexico into and through this evening across the higher
terrain. However, majority of the model guidance fails for this
activity on reaching or advancing across the border. Anvil cloud
cover with a light sprinkle or two could be the best of what could
reach Val Verde county tonight. The better chances for rain and
thunderstorm activity across Mexico develops along the dryline and
higher terrain late Sunday afternoon/evening. This greater storm
coverage along with the increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft
across the region could allow for a complex/cluster of storms to
advance across the border and through our western tier counties on
Sunday night into the overnight on early Monday. There are enough
ingredients that will be in place to where a few storms will be
strong to severe with the hazard of hail and strong winds. SPC
highlights a level 1 of 5 risk across our western areas for this
potential Sunday night. Locally heavy rains and lighting will also
be possible with this activity.

Temperatures this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon will mainly
peak in the mid to upper 90s while locations along the Rio Grande
exceed 100 degrees. Maximum heat indices climb into the 102 to 107
degree range for many as well. The conditions trend very warm and
humid at night with overnight lows ranging from the low to upper
70s. With the humid air, low clouds develop overnight into each
morning. Clouds then decrease with mixing by each afternoon to
partly to mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Key Messages:

- Increasingly stormy outlook for Memorial day with strong to severe
  storms possible throughout the period

- Very active and messy weather pattern begins with daily/nightly
  chances (30-50%) of showers and storms

- Temperatures trending slightly After Monday

A tale of two halves for memorial day(Monday). Monday morning should
be dry with only slight (10-30%) chances for rain mainly western
areas with most everyone else staying dry. However, Monday afternoon looks
to be the beginning of a very active and messy forecast period with
daily chances for storms in the afternoons and evenings each day.
Specifically for Monday it is looking more and more likely that
areas east of the I-10 to west of and along the I-35 line could see
storms as early as mid afternoon. Most Global models are coming into
much better agreement on this area experiencing stormy weather
including the possibility of strong to even severe storms. As such
SPC has almost the entire area with the exception of the far Coastal
Plains in a level 1 of 5 risk. Large hail and damaging winds would
be the primary threats though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out. I would not be surprised if SPC adds a level 2 of 5 risk
somewhere in our area as the dynamics for severe weather look quite
favorable. Because of this, decided to raise pops to the 50-70%
range. We could be looking at multiple complexes impacting the area
with one coming down from fort worth`s area and a second line of
storms approaching the Hill Country from the west.

Additionally, dew points in the low to mid 70s will make it feel
downright tropical across the area especially with highs in the mid
90s. Storms should clear out of the area late overnight Monday
before a weak front tries to move across by Tuesday afternoon. It is
still unclear where and how far south this front makes it. Because of
this the forecast next week becomes increasingly challenging. Daily
and nightly chances of showers and storms will strongly depend on the
areal coverage of the showers and thunderstorms from the previous
day/night. Convective chances will also likely be influenced by
mesoscale features such as outflow boundaries, which are nigh to
impossible to forecast this far out. We currently have daily/nightly
shower and storm chances of 20-50%, however these chances will be
refined as each day gets closer. A few strong to severe storms will
be possible, along with pockets of heavy rainfall.

Additionally, even though many areas in the region have been in a
drought we still could see some minor flooding concerns as we did
with last thursday`s storms especially if the front hangs up across
our area thus allowing for slower moving storms that are able to tap
into the rich moisture that will be across the area. Definitely
something to watch and keep an eye on for future forecasts.

Temperatures are forecast to trend cooler and closer to seasonal
normals Tuesday through Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to near
90 and lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR flying conditions turn MVFR most areas overnight into Sunday
morning, then VFR late morning through evening. Although VFR prevails
at KDRT throughout, cannot rule out a brief MVFR CIG early in the
morning. S to SE winds of 7 to 15 KTs prevail. A few gusts up to 25
KTs are possible mainly during the daytime through evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  98  77  96 /   0  10  10  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  97  77  96 /   0  10  10  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  97  77  96 /   0  10  10  40
Burnet Muni Airport            74  95  75  92 /   0  10  20  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 103  79 101 /  10  10  30  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  96  76  95 /   0  10  20  60
Hondo Muni Airport             75  98  77  97 /   0  10  20  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  97  77  97 /   0  10  10  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  96  78  95 /   0  10  10  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  97  78  97 /   0  10  20  40
Stinson Muni Airport           78  98  79  98 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...04